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Hazardous Weather Outlook


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Severe thunderstorms will become possible Saturday afternoon and
early evening across the northern/northwestern half of Arkansas.
While uncertainty exists on whether storms can form and become
mature...any storm that does form will have the potential to produce
very large hail and damaging winds. These storms may also be capable
of producing a tornado or two.

As time goes on late Saturday evening into the early morning hours
on Sunday...the potential for seeing more organized thunderstorms
will increase as a cold front drops south towards the state. These
thunderstorms could also become severe...with damaging winds
possible with the strongest storms as this activity looks to form
into a larger...more organized line or complex. Large hail and a few
brief tornadoes will also be possible as this line or complex moves
south across northern Arkansas. Some locally heavy rain may also be
seen...resulting in an isolated flash flood threat.

By Sunday morning...the threat for seeing severe weather will have
decreased...but the cold front will still be dropping south across
the state. Additional thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across the southern/southeastern half of the
state as the cold front pushes through this region of Arkansas.
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may again be possible
during this period.

Calmer and drier conditions will be seen for Monday into Tuesday.
The threat for hazardous weather will then become low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. However, please
monitor forecast trends over the holiday weekend.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

$$

44/62

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
722 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-271000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
722 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few thunderstorms will spread eastward into southeast Missouri
early this morning. They should dissipate by 10 AM before reaching
the Mississippi River. Lightning will be the primary concern.

Small chances of thunderstorms are forecast tonight, mainly along
the Interstate 64 corridor of southern Illinois and southwest
Indiana. A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds
will be possible if storms can develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms are forecast throughout the region Saturday through
Sunday evening. Any storms that develop through this period may
become severe, but the greatest threats will be late Saturday into
Saturday night, and possibly again along the cold front Sunday
afternoon and evening. The latest guidance suggests that one or
more thunderstorm complexes may move through the region with
primarily a damaging wind threat. Any individual storms would
pose a threat of very large hail to go along with damaging winds
and possibly a few tornadoes. In addition, heavy rainfall may lead
to flash flooding where multiple storms train over the same
locations.

Small chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecast
for all or a portion of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Better
chances of thunderstorms are forecast throughout the area Thursday
and Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be
the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may become necessary for multiple rounds of
severe weather from Saturday through Sunday evening.

$$

DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
530 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-270900-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
359 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect beginning at 10 AM this morning
through 7 PM this evening. A tight pressure gradient across the
Four-State Region today will result in south winds increasing to
15 to 20 mph with higher gusts approaching 30 mph this afternoon.
Wind speeds should subside shortly after sunset. Otherwise no
additional hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Strong southerly winds will remain in the forecast through at
least Saturday across the entire Four State Region. The atmosphere
will become very unstable across the Middle Red River Valley of
Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma into Southwest Arkansas
Saturday afternoon and evening. An approaching upper level trough
from the Southern Plains will likely generate strong to severe
thunderstorms across this area Saturday Evening into the overnight
hours. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes
will be possible along with locally heavy rainfall. On Sunday, the
entire Four State Region will have the possibility of seeing
strong to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of a southeastward
moving cold front.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed through
tonight.
$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
507 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
507 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Hail risk.
  Limited Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  There is a very slight risk for isolated stront to severe
  thunderstorms through sunrise this morning across portions of
  Central Missouri. Hail to quarters in size and cloud to ground
  lightning would be the main risk.

  Unsettled conditions will begin to develop over the area today.
  Warming mid level temperatures will develop a thermal cap in
  the atmosphere today which will likely keep most thunderstorm
  activity from developing until at tonight. Any activity that
  does occur today into this evening will ve elevated and
  produce large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

  The overall best chance of strong to severe storms will occur
  from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as the cap weakens
  and very strong instability develops ahead of a cold front
  which will move through Saturday night.

  All modes of severe weather will be possible, with the main
  risks of large hail to the size of baseballs and damaging wind
  in excess of 60 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed today or tonight for central
  Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
453 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
453 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
   SATURDAY EVENING WITH DESTRUCTIVE WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL...

...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After midnight.

DISCUSSION...
A few isolated strong to marginally severe storms could develop after
midnight across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Large hail will be the main threat with any storms that develop.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A low pressure system will move into northeast Oklahoma late
Saturday afternoon. The atmosphere will become extremely unstable
ahead of the surface low with severe storms rapidly developing
across northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon or early evening.
Supercells will initially be possible with hail to the size of
baseballs and destructive winds to 80 mph. A few strong tornadoes
will also be possible.

Thunderstorms will become more linear in nature Saturday night
with one or more convective bands sweeping southeast across the
remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the
overnight hours. Damaging winds will become the main threat
although a limited tornado threat could persist. In addition,
heavy rainfall will be likely in the stronger storms and localized
flash flooding could become a significant concern.

Storms will begin to shift southeast of the region Sunday morning
with dry conditions on Monday. Low thunderstorm chances return for
the remainder of the week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

Severe weather watches and warnings should be anticipated late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The holiday weekend will
provide numerous outdoor exposures which will further increase the
potential for a rapid safety response. Closely monitor the latest
forecasts and updates as overall threats continue to be refined.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
402 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-270915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-
402 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and the Mississippi Delta.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Windy conditions will exist from late Friday morning through the
early evening. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph will be common
with gusts from 30 to 35 mph.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Severe thunderstorms are possible over southeast Arkansas,
northeast Louisiana, and northern portions of central Mississippi
late Saturday night through Memorial Day. The primary hazards
with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and hail up to half
dollar size. Locally heavy rainfall which may result in localized
flooding is also possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
night through Monday.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
346 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-270900-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
346 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Low level humidity will continue to increase today east of a dryline
with very warm high temperatures. Heat indices will reach between
100 and 105 degrees this afternoon across a few areas. If planning
to be outdoors for extended periods of time this afternoon, remember
to to wear lightweight clothing, hydrate with water or water-based
fluids, and take frequent breaks indoors or in the shade.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Afternoon heat indices will soar to between 100 and 105 degrees
across some areas once again Saturday afternoon. If planning to be
outdoors for extended periods of time Saturday afternoon, remember to
to wear lightweight clothing, hydrate with water or water-based
fluids, and take frequent breaks indoors or in the shade.

Low thunderstorm chances will return to parts of North and Central
Texas Saturday afternoon and early evening along and east of a
dryline, with better chances overnight Saturday night with a complex
of storms moving southeast out of Oklahoma. Storm development will be
conditional on the strength of the cap, especially Saturday afternoon
and early evening. If the cap is strong, most areas will stay dry.
However, if the cap weakens sufficiently, strong to severe storms
will be possible given the high instability and wind shear present.
Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the main hazards.
A low tornado threat will be possible with any discrete supercell
thunderstorms, due to the very high instability expected to be in
place Saturday afternoon and evening.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue on Sunday with a southward-
moving cold front. This front may stall across parts of Central Texas
allowing storm chances to continue into Monday, mainly south of
Interstate 20. A few strong to severe storms will remain possible.

Otherwise, an active weather pattern will continue through next week
with storm chances continuing each day Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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