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Flash Flood Watch


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
354 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NMZ524>526-539-540-171100-
/O.EXB.KABQ.FF.A.0015.140916T2200Z-140918T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
354 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW
  MEXICO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...
  SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS... SOUTHWEST
  CHAVES COUNTY AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
  MEXICO TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
  WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LINCOLN AND FAR
  SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WERE ALREADY IMPACTED
  WITH RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL
  RAINFALL OVER THESE SATURATED AREAS WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT
  FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

* THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE ESPECIALLY HIGH DOWNSTREAM OF
  THE LITTLE BEAR AND WHITE BURN SCARS IN LINCOLN COUNTY. ABRUPT
  FLOWS OF WATER...ASH...AND DEBRIS COULD DEVELOP AFTER HEAVY
  DOWNPOURS IMPACT THE AREA. RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS THROUGH THE
  WATCH AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
  ISSUED LATER ON TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO SPREAD HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING TO AREA...

.FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ODILE AND SHE IS
TRACKING NORTH UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SLOWLY APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALREADY DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT COPIOUS
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE BORDERLAND.
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS ODILE SLOWLY TRACKS INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. BANDS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ONE TO TWO
INCHES IS EXPECTED. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE
LOWLANDS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. AREA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE COULD
RECEIVE UP TO FIVE OR MORE INCHES.

NMZ412>417-TXZ418>424-171115-
/O.EXT.KEPZ.FF.A.0010.000000T0000Z-140919T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALAMOGORDO...TULAROSA...
WHITE SANDS MONUMENT...OROGRANDE...
WHITE SANDS RANGE HEADQUARTERS...CHAPARRAL...MESCALERO...
MOUNTAIN PARK...TIMBERON...CLOUDCROFT...SUNSPOT...APACHE SUMMIT...
MAYHILL...SACRAMENTO...PINON...CROW FLATS...DOWNTOWN...
WEST EL PASO...UPPER VALLEY...FORT BLISS...SOCORRO...
EAST AND NORTHEAST EL PASO...HUECO TANKS...LOMA LINDA...
DELL CITY...CORNUDAS...SALT FLAT...SIERRA BLANCA...FABENS...
TORNILLO...FORT HANCOCK
331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
  INCLUDED ARE HIDALGO...GRANT...SIERRA...LUNA...DONA ANA...AND
  OTERO COUNTIES IN NEW MEXICO. IN TEXAS...EL PASO AND HUDSPETH
  COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED. OF SPECIAL CONCERN WILL BE WESTERN SIERRA
  AND EASTERN GRANT COUNTIES WITH EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE BLACK
  RANGE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA.

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* SEVERAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL
  PASSAGE OF ODILE TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY
  THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO
  BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

* NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS...STREAMS...AND RIVER COULD BE QUICKLY
  FILLED WITH FAST MOVING WATER...MUD AND DEBRIS. LOW WATER
  CROSSINGS WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE. SEVERAL RIVERS WILL
  LIKELY REACH BANKFUL AND RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. FLOODING OF
  HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE. SOME FLOODING COULD BECOME LIFE THREATENING. PEOPLE
  LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
  RISING WATER IS SEEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BIRD


Special Weather Statement


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
211 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-171100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...
CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL...
SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON...
BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...VAN HORN...PECOS...MENTONE...
RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY...
MONAHANS...CRANE...MCCAMEY...RANKIN...BIG LAKE...ALPINE...
FORT DAVIS...FORT STOCKTON...PRESIDIO...MARFA...BIG BEND NP...
MARATHON...SANDERSON...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS
211 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 /111 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

...ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...

AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVE INTO A SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  AS SUCH...THE CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM CULBERSON
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. MANY OF
THESE AREAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF LAST
WEEK AND SOILS ARE ALREADY NEAR SATURATION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL GENERATE RUNOFF QUICKLY AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ODILE/S REMNANTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...
WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THIS PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CULBERSON
COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MAY RECEIVE CLOSE TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. BE SURE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
UPDATES.

YOU CAN STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST BY VISITING OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MAF...LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR
BY FOLLOWING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND ON FACEBOOK AND
TWITTER.

&&

$$


Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
545 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-171715-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
545 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINS WILL FALL OVER SOME LOCATIONS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OVER A FEW AREAS. THUS FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE RISK OF FLOODING. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE OVER 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

$$

ROGASH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
309 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-172015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
309 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STREET AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
303 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TXZ021>044-172015-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
303 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL RESULT IN MINOR STREET FLOODING IN A
FEW AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...PEAKING LATE WEEK OR EARLY THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-171900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
150 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 /1250 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS WITH MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE NORTHERN
BASIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY INCREASES AS
THE MOISTURE FROM ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MANY AREAS INCLUDING
THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST BASIN RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LATE LAST WEEK
AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND FLASH FLOODING.

THE RIO GRANDE MAY SEE ELEVATED FLOWS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE
A COMBINATION OF RELEASES FROM RESERVOIRS IN MEXICO AND HEAVY
RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE THE INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCAL FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING THESE
NEXT FEW DAYS LOCAL OFFICIALS SHOULD KEEP UP THE LATEST FORECAST TRENDS.

$$
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171530-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1030 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING NEAR A STALLED FRONT. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE UNDER THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE-35
AND ALSO OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...THEN
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN HIGH RAIN TOTALS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NMZ501>540-171200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
551 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY. THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING... ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR COMPLEX AND THE LITTLE BEAR BURN
SCAR. ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL
COULD BECOME HEAVY WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IMPACTING THE STATE.
THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING... ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR RECENT AND OLDER BURN SCARS. ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH UP TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO SEE THIS MUCH RAIN WILL BE OVER THE UPPER GILA REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR
COMPLEX...FOLLOWED BY THE LITTLE BEAR BURN SCAR AREA. A FEW STORMS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

$$

40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-170915-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE
MIDDLE TO LATE THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AT NIGHT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND
MAY CAUSE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$


Short Term Forecast


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
509 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NMZ505>509-519>526-533-535>540-170105-
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
GUADALUPE COUNTY-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBUQUERQUE...LOS LUNAS...RIO RANCHO...
CARRIZOZO...CLINES CORNERS...CLOVIS...EL MORRO...ELK...FORT SUMNER...
GALLUP...GLENWOOD...GRAN QUIVIRA...GRANTS...MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...
PICACHO...PORTALES...QUEMADO...ROSWELL...RUIDOSO...
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST...TIJERAS...SANTA ROSA...SOCORRO
509 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 7 PM MDT...A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHILE SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE PERIPHERY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
ONE INCH WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE
IMPACTED INCLUDE GALLUP...GRANTS...QUEMADO...LUNA...BELEN...
SOCORRO...RUIDOSO...CORONA...FORT SUMNER...PORTALES AND ROSWELL.

$$

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
544 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TXZ021>024-027>030-033>044-170000-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-COCHRAN-
HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-
STONEWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...
PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...LOCKNEY...MORTON...LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
SLATON...WOLFFORTH...CROSBYTON...RALLS...DICKENS...SPUR...
GUTHRIE...PLAINS...DENVER CITY...BROWNFIELD...TAHOKA...ODONNELL...
POST...JAYTON...ASPERMONT
544 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 7 PM...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
BROWNFIELD AND TAHOKA...WHERE RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE TO TWO
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...LIGHTER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

$$

JORDAN

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
440 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TXZ183>191-202-206-170000-
VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-
KINNEY-COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DEL RIO...ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...
KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...
SAN MARCOS...BRACKETTVILLE...NEW BRAUNFELS
440 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 7 PM CDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND DRIFT WEST AT 10 MPH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. EXPECT SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2
INCH...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM AMISTAD RESERVOIR TO MARBLE
FALLS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST
FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR COULD RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
LATER THIS EVENING.

$$

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
440 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TXZ171>173-192>194-203>205-207>209-217>225-228-170000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-
GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-
KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...AUSTIN...
BASTROP...GIDDINGS...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...SEGUIN...
LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...
PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...
HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
440 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 7 PM CDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...I-35 CORRIDOR
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OVER 30 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER 1 INCH AS WELL AS
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BELOW 1/4
INCH.

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE