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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1227 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
AND FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT SEE BACK BUILDING OR PERSISTENT
TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS A CONTINUED RISK FOR FLOODING.

A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
30S. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
509 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021015-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
509 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...THOUGH
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE SEEN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SO...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF ARKANSAS...WITH HAIL
ALSO POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE
AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE OVER
TWO INCHES.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

$$

226

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-021000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT WEST
OF A MOUNT CARMEL ILLINOIS TO MAYFIELD KENTUCKY LINE. LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LATE DAY ISOLATED STORM
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
MAYBE SMALL HAIL THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE. OTHERWISE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITY...AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM OUR OFFICE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ACTIVATION WILL BE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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