Flood Warning
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1020 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ARKANSAS...
OUACHITA RIVER AT THATCHER LOCK AND DAM NEAR CALION AFFECTING
BRADLEY...CALHOUN AND UNION COUNTIES
RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RAINFALL
FORECASTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DURING PERIODS OF
FLOODING...EVENING FORECASTS ARE REISSUED WITH UPDATED RAINFALL
FORECASTS.
OBSERVED AND FORECASTED STAGE DATA PLOTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE WEB PAGE AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK
UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION...SELECT RIVER AND LAKES AHPS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN
DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.
EVERYONE WITH PROPERTY OR OTHER INTEREST ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER FORECAST. SHOULD CONDITIONS
CHANGE...LOOK FOR RIVER FORECAST OR FLOOD WARNINGS FOR USE IN MAKING
INFORMED DECISIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
&&
ARC011-013-139-080720-
/O.CON.KLZK.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140311T0000Z/
/CALA4.1.ER.140306T1810Z.140307T1800Z.140309T1800Z.NO/
1020 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE OUACHITA RIVER AT THATCHER LOCK AND DAM NEAR CALION.
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6:00 AM FRIDAY THE WATER ELEVATION WAS 79.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD ELEVATION IS 79.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 79.5 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD ELEVATION SUNDAY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS AT 79.0 FEET...PROPERTY IN LOW LYING AREAS NEEDS TO BE REMOVED.
ACCESS ROADS TO OIL AND GAS RIGS MAY BE FLOODED. LEVEE GATES SHOULD BE
CLOSED BEFORE THE RIVER REACHES 80 FEET. THERE IS MINOR FLOODING AT THIS
LEVEL.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SAT SUN MON TUE WED
OUACHITA RIVER
THATCHER L 79 79.4 FRI 06 AM 79.5 79.1 78.4 77.5 77.0
$$
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
SOUTH FORK OF THE FORK FORKED DEER RIVER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FOLLOWUP FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.
STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.
&&
TNC033-045-097-081538-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FL.W.0020.140309T1400Z-000000T0000Z/
/HLST1.1.ER.140309T1400Z.140311T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
938 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TN HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE SOUTH FORK OF THE FORK FORKED DEER RIVER NEAR HALLS
* FROM SUNDAY MARCH 9 UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 9 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS...7.7 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 10.0 FEET MONDAY MARCH 10.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MARCH 9 AND CONTINUE
TO RISE TO NEAR 10.0 FEET BY MONDAY MARCH 10.
AT 10.5 FEET, FLOODING ON AGRICULTURE LAND NEAR THE RIVER.
&&
LAT...LON 3595 8948 3600 8940 3589 8932 3584 8940
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
423 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-082230-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
423 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
LIMITED FOG RISK.
DISCUSSION...
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW TERRAIN.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WET SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR
AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED
SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CAUSE
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SOME AREAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)
$$
DSA
Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-047-
049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097-
099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-
147-149-080600-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CST THU MAR 06 2014
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS A
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHICH IS WHOLLY LOCATED WITHIN THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS. IT ENCOMPASSES AN AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE WHITE RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM BULL SHOALS DAM DOWNSTREAM...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM DARDANELLE DOWNSTREAM...AND THE OUACHITA
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM THE HEADWATERS TO THE UPPER BOUNDARY OF
THE FELSENTHAL NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE. ALONG WITH THE MAIN STEM OF
THESE RIVERS...IT ALSO INCLUDES TRIBUTARIES WITH FORECAST LOCATIONS
ON THE CACHE...BLACK...SPRING...SALINE...PETIT JEAN...FOURCHE
LAFAVE...LITTLE MISSOURI...BUFFALO...LITTLE RED...MULBERRY...AND
ELEVEN POINT RIVERS.
EXISTING CONDITIONS...
RAINFALL - THE WINTER BEGAN WET WITH SURPLUS PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF ARKANSAS IN DECEMBER. SEVERAL ARCTIC COLD FRONTS MADE A PASS
THROUGH ARKANSAS IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY...BUT MOST OF THEM LACKED
MOISTURE AND RESULTED IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE MOST
NEGLECTED AREA WAS THE WHITE RIVER BASIN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHICH RECEIVED LESS THAN 75 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING
THE LAST THREE MONTHS. THREE MONTH AVERAGES WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
MARCH.
SOIL MOISTURE - SOIL MOISTURE WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
ARKANSAS. THE DRIEST SOILS WERE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE WHITE
RIVER BASIN...WITH SOIL CONDITIONS CLOSEST TO NORMAL IN THE OUACHITA
MOUNTAIN REGION. SNOW AND ICE WERE MELTING IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE...AND THAT WAS SLOWLY INCREASING THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY.
IF HEAVY RAIN WAS TO OCCUR IN THE NORTH IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...RUNOFF WOULD BE ELEVATED.
RIVER FLOWS AND RESERVOIRS - A RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT CAUSED MINOR
FLOODING ALONG THE OUACHITA RIVER...WITH STREAMFLOW ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS IN THE UPPER OUACHITA BASIN. STREAMFLOW ALONG THE MAINSTEM OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE WHITE AND BLACK
RIVERS WERE FLOWING BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURRED THIS
WINTER FELL MOSTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN THE
UPPER WHITE BASIN...KEEPING THEM BELOW SEASONAL CONSERVATION POOL
LEVELS.
WHITE RIVER BASIN...
MINOR FLOODING OCCURRED IN LATE DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY BUT DRIER
WEATHER CAUSED ALL RIVERS IN THE BLACK AND WHITE RIVER BASINS TO
RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT WAS
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. NO FLOODING WAS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOW AS A PERCENT
OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.
3/5
BLACK RIVER BLACK ROCK AR 48%
WHITE RIVER NEWPORT AR 64%
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL...WHICH INCLUDES SOME
MINOR FLOODING...IS EXPECTED OVER THE BLACK AND WHITE BASINS.
PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW.
3/5
BULL SHOALS RES. AR 100%
NORFORK RES. AR 100%
GREERS FERRY RES. AR 100%
ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN...
CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS IN ARKANSAS HAVE APPROXIMATELY 99
PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD CONTROL CAPACITY AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
STREAM FLOWS IN ARKANSAS ARE ALSO REFLECTIVE OF THE RECENT
PRECIPITATION. STREAMS IN WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE ARE
FLOWING AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...WITH ISOLATED STATIONS FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM REPORTING BELOW NORMAL DISCHARGES BELOW 25 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.
FOR THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NORMAL
TO BELOW NORMAL. OBSERVED FLOW ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR 20000 CFS WHICH IS 26 PERCENT OF NORMAL COMPARED TO
THE LONG TERM AVERAGE OF 76000 CFS FOR EARLY MARCH. BASED ON CURRENT
SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN
AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS BASIN.
OUACHITA RIVER BASIN...
SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR
THATCHER LOCK AND DAM. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUACHITA RIVER BASIN. ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS
A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.
3/5
OUACHITA RIVER CAMDEN AR 131%
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
OUACHITA RIVER BASIN. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL
STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW.
3/5
LAKE OUACHITA AR 100%
DEGRAY RES. AR 100%
LAKE GREESON AR 100%
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN THE OUACHITA RIVER BASIN WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL THIS SPRING. FLOODING IN WESTERN ARKANSAS USUALLY
OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO RANDOM HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO ALTER
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OF THE AREA.
METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ARKANSAS.
HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AS WELL.
THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER WHITE
RIVER BASIN.
THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER BASIN. HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING NORTH TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH
EQUAL CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ON MARCH 4TH SHOWED NORTHWESTERN AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY (D0)
CONDITIONS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS WERE FREE OF DROUGHT.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S FEBRUARY 28TH DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLED
FOR NO DEVELOPMENT OR INTENSIFICATION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT THREE MONTHS.
CONCLUSION...
OVERALL THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATORS THAT SUGGEST AN OVERLY WET OR
SEVERELY DRY SPRING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY
ARE GENERALLY THE THREE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR...SOME LEVEL OF
FLOODING CAN STILL BE EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS TO BE A
SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACTIVE WEATHER GIVEN THE COLDER
AIR IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE SPRING SEASON.
BY APRIL/MAY...EXPECT AT LEAST AN AVERAGE SPRING SEASON WITH PERIODS
OF HIGHLY CONVECTIVE SEVERE WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED HIGH QUANTITIES
OF RAINFALL OCCURRING PERIODICALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD AND OVER
SMALLER WATERSHEDS. LOCALIZED...HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN CREATE
FLASH FLOODING AT ANY TIME...EVEN DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT. THIS
SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK DEFINES LONG TERM RIVER
FLOODING...AND DOES NOT ASSESS THE RISK OF SHORT TERM FLOODING.
THE SPRING POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS A ROUTINE PRODUCT. SHOULD EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BECOME PART OF THE FORECAST AT ANY OTHER TIME OF THE
YEAR...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED WITH EVENT SPECIFIC
INFORMATION. ALSO LOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLOOD WATCHES.
IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMAIN SITUATIONALLY AWARE.
FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION.
$$
61
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ALC001-005>011-015>021-027-029-037-047-051-055-057-063-
065-073-075-081-085>088-090>093-101-105>127-133-101200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1030 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
..NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
HISTORICALLY FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS
IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL.
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS BEING CURRENTLY
OBSERVED AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MARCH...THE
THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE MONTH OF
MARCH IS TYPICALLY AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR RIVER FLOODING IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FORECASTING A NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING MEANS
THAT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A TYPICAL NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS WITH
TYPICAL MAGNITUDE FOR THIS PERIOD THROUGH EARLY APRIL. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY LONG TERM ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS. THESE
ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND ON THE WATER.WEATHER.GOV
WEB SITE UNDER THE EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE RIVER FLOOD RISK TAB.
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 3RD ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION.
PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS.
FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE CONTINUED FAST MOVING PRECIPITATION EVENTS WITHIN THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS BRINGING NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) AND CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)FORECASTS ALSO
SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...NEUTRAL ENSO
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SPRING. AS A RESULT
AND BASED ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST...PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY THROUGH MARCH. SEE THE CPC WEB PAGE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST (SERFC) CENTER ISSUES A VARIETY OF
PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER
RESOURCES. THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS UPDATED EVERY TWO
TO THREE WEEKS.
FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC
AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.
&&
FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC
(ALL LOWERCASE)
AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.
YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX
(ALL LOWERCASE)
FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT
ROGER MCNEIL...SERVICE HYDROLOGIST...AT 205-664-3010 OR BY
E-MAIL AT ROGER.MCNEIL@NOAA.GOV .
FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...GO TO:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BMX
(ALL LOWERCASE)
FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFVSMAP.SHTML
(ALL LOWERCASE)
FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/?N=QPFPAGE
(ALL LOWERCASE)
FOR THE USGS WATER WATCH SITE...GO TO:
HTTP://AL.WATER.USGS.GOV
(ALL LOWERCASE)
$$
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
101200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
709PM CST THU MAR 06 2014
...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND
MUCH OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
SYNOPSIS...
ACROSS THE WFO JACKSON COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...TEMPERATURES FOR
THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER FROM DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY WERE BELOW
NORMAL. JANUARY WAS THE COLDEST MONTH WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
4 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS WINTER WILL GO DOWN AS THE 7TH
COLDEST ON RECORD FOR GREENWOOD...GREENVILLE...AND HATTIESBURG AND
THE 8TH COLDEST ON RECORD AT VICKSBURG/TALLULAH.
RAINFALL FOR THE WINTER MONTHS WAS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE ONLY AREA WITH AT OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WAS FROM
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AT
OUR OFFICIAL OBSERVING SITES...RAINFALL RANGED FROM 0.91 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL AT MERIDIAN TO 6.11 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AT
TALLULAH/VICKSBURG. THE DRIEST AREAS WERE NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE PARKWAY.
THE DRY WINTER HAS LEFT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EXTREME
WEST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE YAZOO DELTA REGION. ELSEWHERE...SOIL
MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL.
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM ARKANSAS CITY AR TO NATCHEZ MS...
SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTH CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH 6 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, NORTHEAST
IOWA, AND NORTH ILLINOIS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGED FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
RECENT STORMS HAVE GENERATED SNOW DEPTH OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE
JUNCTION OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES. SNOW DEPTHS WERE LIGHTER OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE OHIO, MISSISSIPPI, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH
AMOUNTS LESS THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES. THIS SNOW SHOULD MELT OVER THE
COMING DAYS AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH POCKETS OF ABOVE NORMAL
OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER MISSOURI AND RED
RIVER VALLEY HAVE BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
DURING THE WINTER, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ON
THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS SEASON. WARMER
TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK MELTED MUCH OF THE SNOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND WELL-BELOW-FLOOD-STAGE CRESTS ASSOCIATED WITH
SNOWMELT AND RAIN ARE APPROACHING ARKANSAS CITY ARKANSAS.
SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS:
3/5
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEBES IL 71%
OHIO RIVER CAIRO IL 114%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER MEMPHIS TN 105%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARKANSAS CITY AR 107%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VICKSBURG MS 115%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NATCHEZ MS 118%
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...
AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT
OF ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COVER AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT;
COUPLED WITH THE FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.
OUACHITA/BLACK BASINS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...
STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL IN ARKANSAS AND NEAR NORMAL IN
LOUISIANA. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR
NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THATCHER LOCK & DAM ON THE
MIDDLE OUACHITA RIVER. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUACHITA AND BLACK RIVER BASINS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:
3/5
OUACHITA RIVER MONROE LA 72%
BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW PORTLAND AR 93%
BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW JONES LA 80%
TENSAS TENDAL LA 14%
PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IN THE UPPER
OUACHITA IS GIVEN BELOW:
3/5
LAKE OUACHITA AR 100%
DEGRAY RES. AR 100%
LAKE GRESSON AR 100%
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...
AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE OUACHITA AND BLACK
RIVER BASINS WHICH INCLUDES THE TENSAS RIVER...BAYOU MACON...BAYOU
BARTHOLOMEW...AND THE BOEUF RIVER.
BIG BLACK RIVER AND HOMOCHITTO RIVER BASINS...
MINOR RAINFALL EVENTS DURING THE WINTER HAS CAUSED SEASONAL FLOODING
ALONG THE BIG BLACK RIVER BUT DRY WEATHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL. THE HOMOCHITTO HAS HAD ABUNDANT RAINFALL
WITH SIGNIFICANT BELOW-FLOOD-STAGE RISES. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS
NEAR NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME ALONG EITHER
RIVER SYSTEM AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:
3/5
BIG BLACK RIVER WEST MS 64%
BIG BLACK RIVER BOVINA MS 43%
HOMOCHITTO RIVER ROSETTA MS 94%
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...
AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE BIG BLACK AND
HOMOCHITTO RIVER BASINS.
YAZOO RIVER BASIN...
STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE YAZOO
RIVER BASIN. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO
FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW:
3/5
BIG SUNFLOWER 55%
PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW:
3/5
ARKABUTLA RES. MS 91%
SARDIS RES. MS 88%
ENID RES. MS 88%
GRENADA RES. MS 92%
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...
AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE YAZOO RIVER BASIN.
PEARL RIVER BASIN...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED SEVERAL FLOOD EVENTS ACROSS THE
PEARL RIVER BASIN. ELEVATED LEVELS HAVE RECEDED OVER THE PEARL RIVER
AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. OVERALL SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL AND NEW FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:
3/5
PEARL RIVER CARTHAGE MS 63%
PEARL RIVER JACKSON MS 32%
PEARL RIVER MONTICELLO MS 46%
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...
AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN.
PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH AND EAST MISSISSIPPI WHICH INCLUDES THE
LEAF...CHUNKY...AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE CHICKASAWHAY RIVERS...
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS HAS CAUSED PERIODS OF
MINOR FLOODING OVER THE PASCAGOULA BASIN. STREAMFLOWS HAVE RECEDED
TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AND OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR
NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE LEAF AND CHICKASAWHAY RIVERS. NO FLOODING IS
OCCURRING AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:
3/5
LEAF RIVER HATTIESBURG MS 71%
TALLAHALA CREEK LAUREL MS 88%
CHICKASAWHAY RIVER ENTERPRISE MS 73%
BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...
AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER PASCAGOULA
BASIN WHICH INCLUDES THE LEAF...CHICKASAWHAY...CHUNKY RIVER AND
TALLAHALA CREEK.
TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN MISSISSIPPI WHICH INCLUDES THE NOXUBEE RIVER AND
THE TIBBEE AND LUXAPALLILA CREEKS...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE BASIN.
ONLY MINOR TO MODERATE RISES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH NO FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS OR CREEKS IN THE WFO JACKSON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
SOIL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:
3/5
TOMBIGBEE RIVER BIGBEE MS 49%
LUXAPALLILA CREEK COLUMBUS MS 72%
NOXUBEE RIVER MACON MS 84%
BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...
AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TOMBIGBEE AND
TRIBUTARIES IN MISSISSIPPI.
EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR ARKLAMISS REGION.
THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES ABOVE
NORMAL...NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR
THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS
REGION WHILE THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARKLAMISS REGION.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2014.
NOTE: STREAMFLOW DATA ARE PROVIDED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS AND U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.
$$
MVP
