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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
632 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-231300-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
632 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...RESULTS
IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW. WIND GUSTS COULD
APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT.
SEAS TRENDING MUCH HIGHER.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN STRONG. AWAY FROM STORMS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
SUNDAY MAY GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH SEAS CONTINUING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.

THE PASSAGE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN
SEVERE MARINE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS AT TIMES...VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
632 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231300-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
632 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...RESULTS
IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN STRONG OVER THE BEACHES. THE INCREASE IN WINDS
IN COMBINATION WITH SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER
PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY
DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES.

AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...APPROACHING
THE COAST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...CHANCES OF WET WEATHER TREND HIGHER.
SOME OF THE RAINS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY LATE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY IMPACT THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...THE BETTER RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACHES CONTINUES ON SUNDAY.

THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN ORGANIZING
LINE OF STORMS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND ALONG WITH A STRONG AND
CHANGING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. RAPID STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A QUICK ONSET OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL OF LONG
TRACK...ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE SQUALL LINE MAKES STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS TO EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAINS DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOWERS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE REQUESTED
ON SUNDAY.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-231400-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF IMPACTS TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAIN...COASTAL
FLOODING...AND MARINE ISSUES ARE ALL HIGHLIGHTED. THE THREATS ARE
MAINLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE THREAT OF STRONG
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE ATCHAFALYA RIVER. THE MAIN
TIME FRAME IS AFTER 2 AM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG...POSSIBLY
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AND RESULT IN HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO
SMALL CRAFT OVER THE TIDAL LAKES...BAYS...SOUNDS AND COASTAL
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN
TIME FRAME WILL BE FROM JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH ABOUT 11 AM.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE TOO. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD
OCCUR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING THE SOUNDS AND
TIDAL LAKES. WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY SLACK OFF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST THEY WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
205 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LAZ024>026-MSZ045-046-048>066-072>074-232015-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
205 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...SUNDAY

NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...SUNDAY

WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT AN ELEVATED THREAT EXISTS OF A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH MOVING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN 3 AM AND NOON SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH OF A NATCHEZ TO MERIDIAN LINE.

AFTER THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. LOOK FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
OR 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

$$

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
EXTREME...SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER OR WIND GUSTS 65 MPH
 OR GREATER.
HIGH...SUSTAINED WINDS 40-49 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 58-64 MPH.
ELEVATED...SUSTAINED WINDS 30-39 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 45-57 MPH.
LIMITED...SUSTAINED WINDS 20-29 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 30 TO 44 MPH.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
HIGH...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.


...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
205 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ028>033-035>044-047-232015-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-WARREN-
205 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...SUNDAY

NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...SUNDAY

WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT A LIMITED THREAT EXISTS OF A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH MOVING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN 3 AM AND NOON SUNDAY
MORNING. ALSO...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AFTER THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. LOOK FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
OR 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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