Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171645-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...
.Thunderstorms...
There is Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
northern and central Oklahoma and a Marginal Risk for much of the
rest of the area.
Location...
The Slight Risk area is northeast of a line from near Alva to
Hobart to Lawton to Seminole. A Marginal Risk surrounds the Slight
Risk and encompasses all but far northwest Oklahoma.
Timing...
The most likely time for severe weather will be from 3 PM to 10 PM.
Impacts...
Damaging winds up to 70 mph. Mainly quarter to half dollar size
hail but possibly as large as golf balls. Very heavy rain.
Discussion...
Thunderstorms will increase by mid afternoon across portions of
south-central and southeast Oklahoma. A few of these storms could
become severe with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.
A more substantial severe weather threat could develop later this
afternoon along a cold front moving through the area.
Thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds could impact
north central Oklahoma first and then develop southwestward into
southwest Oklahoma. By evening, a line of thunderstorms could
form and move across much of central Oklahoma.
The potential for severe storms is expected to diminish late this
evening and overnight but thunderstorms will remain possible
across portions of the area through early Thursday. Heavy rain and
cloud to ground lightning would be the main impacts with these
storms.
.Heavy Rainfall/Flooding...
A very moist environment will support locally heavy rainfall
amounts and the potential for flooding or flash flooding. Portions
of the area have experienced heavy rainfall amounts already
causing the ground to be saturated. Additional heavy rainfall on
these saturated grounds could lead to flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...
.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible each day through Tuesday. Strong
to severe storms will be possible across western Oklahoma and
portions of western north Texas Thursday evening. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the main concerns along with
torrential rainfall.
Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
138 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
138 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Late Afternoon.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Late Afternoon.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.
DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Parts of Eastern Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.
DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to lift
northeast across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this
afternoon. Instability and wind shear values over the region will
allow for limited severe weather potentials with locally damaging
winds and hail being the main threats. Additional thunderstorm
chances become likely late this afternoon...evening and into
overnight hours tonight across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas as storms are forecast to develop along a cold front
entering the region.
Instability interacting with the front will help to increase
severe potentials during the evening hours with a limited
potential remaining after midnight tonight. Damaging winds...large
hail and also a limited tornado potential will be possible
through the evening hours...with conditions becoming more of a
damaging wind threat after midnight tonight. Also...with
widespread moisture across the region...periods of heavy rainfall
will be possible which could create flash flooding conditions
especially over locations that have already received recent heavy
rains.
Across locations that remain dry through this afternoon...heat
index values in the upper 90s to near 105 degrees will be
possible. These conditions will decrease this evening with the
approaching cold front.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat
Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast Thursday across
Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the cold front makes
its way through the region. A limited severe potential could be
possible over far Southeast Oklahoma ahead of the front.
Additional thunderstorm chances return Friday as an upper level
low pressure system moves across the Plains. Periods of heavy
rainfall will again be possible Friday with this next system.
A more typical August weather pattern looks to set up over the
weekend and into the start of next week. This will allow for warm
and humid conditions along with small daytime thunderstorm
chances to be possible across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas this weekend into early next week.
weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-170945-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight
Severe storms with golf ball sized hail and damaging winds of 60 mph
may develop along a slow moving cold front this afternoon and
evening. The best chance for severe storms will be along and east of
the Kansas Turnpike where heavy rain may also result in localized
flooding. See latest flood watch for additional details.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Another cold front will move across the area late in the week,
bringing a chance for strong or severe thunderstorms Thursday night
through Friday.
Periodic chances for storms may return by early next week.
The threat for organized severe weather appears low through the
period.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed along and east of the Kansas
Turnpike this evening.
&&
For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/
$$
Lawson
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171630-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Weather hazards expected...
Elevated Hail risk.
Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
Elevated Flooding risk.
Significant Lightning risk.
Limited Excessive heat risk.
DISCUSSION...
Afternoon heat indices will top out in the middle to upper 90s,
mainly across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop from
west to east across the outlook area this afternoon. Additional
thunderstorms can then be expected tonight as a cold front moves
southeast through the region.
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
tonight, mainly to the west and north of a Gainesville to Salem
line. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the
strongest storms.
Torrential rainfall can also be expected from these storms due to
high moisture content in the atmosphere. Flash flooding will
therefore be possible in areas where multiple storms move over
the same areas. The highest risk for flash flooding will be across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Periodic showers and thunderstorms will occur through the
upcoming week and into the weekend.
Heat index values will be the 90s each day into the weekend and
as high as 100 by early next week.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon and tonight
mainly to the west and north of a Gainesville to Salem line.
&&
More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep
This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf
$$
Schaumann
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1106 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-171615-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1106 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
mainly this afternoon and early evening across portions of Deep
East Texas and Northcentral Louisiana. Locally gusty winds and
brief heavy rainfall will be possible in the stronger storms. In
addition, afternoon temperatures are expected to climb into the
lower and mid 90s. When combined with the humidity, heat indices
are expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Thursday
over Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas,
ahead of a weak surface front and associated upper level
disturbance that will approach the region. The front is expected
to become stationary Friday over Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest
Arkansas, and will help focus scattered showers and thunderstorms
over much of the region Friday through this weekend. Additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible especially over Deep East Texas and North Louisiana
Monday and Tuesday as an upper level disturbance drifts west into
the region from the Gulf Coast and Gulf of Mexico. Locally gusty
winds and brief heavy rainfall will be possible in the stronger
storms each day. In addition, afternoon temperatures will climb
into the lower to mid 90s each day. When combined with the
humidity, heat indices will near or possibly exceed 105 degrees
over portions of the region.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters should not be needed.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
539 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171045-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
539 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 /439 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017/
This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Day 1 Discussion
----------------
There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms today across
western and north central Kansas. These storms today will not be
severe.
Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
The chance for thunderstorms will be possible almost each day
from Thursday through early next week. Some of these stronger
storms late this week and over the weekend may be capable of
producing hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall. At this exactly
where and when the opportunity of these stronger storms will occur
remains uncertain.
Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
- Flooding: Limited risk
- Lightning: Elevated risk
- Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
* Friday
- Flooding: Limited risk
- Lightning: Limited risk
* Saturday
- Lightning: Limited risk
* Sunday
- Lightning: Limited risk
- Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Monday
- Lightning: Limited risk
- Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Tuesday
- Lightning: Limited risk
- Excessive heat: Limited risk
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.
&&
For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
431 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171115-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
431 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Heat index readings will be 100 to 106 this afternoon. The highest
heat index readings are expected generally east of Interstate 35 and
south of Interstate 20.
There are low chances for thunderstorms today along and west of a
line from Killeen to Ennis to Sulphur Springs. Lightning and brief
heavy rain are the main hazards with any lightning activity.
Thunderstorm chances will increase, especially north of I-20 late
tonight, as a weakening storm complex moves into the area. Severe
weather isn`t expected, however, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
brief downpours are possible.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
There are low chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along
and north of a Lometa to Palestine line on Thursday. Severe weather
is not expected. Lightning strikes, brief heavy rain and gusty winds
will be the main hazards.
Low thunderstorm chances remain Thursday night and Friday morning along
and north of Interstate 20 where another complex of storms may graze
parts of North Texas. On Friday afternoon and night, a slight chance
for thunderstorms shifts to along and east of a line from Graham to
Cleburne to Fairfield. A slight chance for thunderstorms exists on
Saturday along and east of a Sherman to Corsicana to Centerville
line. Gusty winds, lightning, and brief downpours will be possible
with any thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday.
Finally, a slight chance for thunderstorms exists on Tuesday along
and east of a Bonham to Hillsboro to Lampasas line.
Heat index values will climb to between 100 and 110 each afternoon.
The highest heat index readings are expected Saturday through
Tuesday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
JLDunn
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
422 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-170930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
422 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and tonight, especially north of a Sterling City to Brownwood
line. The main hazards from these storms will be localized
flooding, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through
Friday afternoon, mainly for areas north of a Barnhart to San Saba
line. The main concerns will continue to be localized flooding,
strong, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
359 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
TXZ021>044-170900-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
359 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible today
over the Rolling Plains which may bring heavy rain and localized
flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
343 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-162045-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
343 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Morning thunderstorms will continue to move to the northeast as we
go through the early morning hours. An isolated thunderstorm may
be possible across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle this
evening. Should a storms form, it will have the possibility of
producing heavy rain which may cause flooding or flash flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles Thursday night through Tuesday. A few storms
that develop during this time frame may become strong to
marginally severe, with strong wind gusts and hail the primary
hazards. In addition, heavy rainfall may accompany thunderstorms,
which could result in localized flooding or flash flooding.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
$$
