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Hazardous Weather Outlook


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
611 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-191800-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
611 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas...southwest Arkansas...north central Louisiana...
northwest Louisiana...southeast Oklahoma...east Texas and
northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase late tonight over
Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas, just ahead of a slow moving
upper level storm system that will enter the Texas Panhandle and
West Texas late. However, no hazardous weather is expected.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to slowly spread
east across the region Monday, as the parent upper level storm
system slowly traverses Central Oklahoma and Texas. Periods of
heavy rainfall will be possible Monday morning over East Texas and
Southeast Oklahoma, which could see rainfall totals of one to two
inches with isolated higher amounts. These showers and embedded
thunderstorms should weaken somewhat as they enter Southwest
Arkansas and North Louisiana, with lower rainfall amounts
expected. Showers will continue Monday night over Southcentral
Arkansas and North Louisiana, before becoming more scattered
Tuesday as the parent storm system begins to shift east of the
area. Much above normal temperatures and dry conditions will
return to the region Wednesday through Friday before the passage
of a weak cold front Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, Skywarn spotters, and amateur
radio operators, should not be needed today or tonight.

$$

15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
501 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201115-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
501 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Along and west of a Bristow to McAlester to Hugo line.
ONSET...After midnight.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After midnight.

POOR VISIBILITY.
RISK...Limited...Isolated Elevated.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing...ending by mid morning.

DISCUSSION...

There is a marginal risk of severe storms across portions of east
central and southeast Oklahoma tonight, mainly after midnight.
Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be the primary
threats.

Storms are expected to form late this afternoon and into the
evening across northern Texas and into southwest and south central
Oklahoma. This band of storms will eventually move into eastern
Oklahoma after midnight and into western Arkansas by Monday
morning. Instability will be marginally supportive of severe
storms across portions of east central and southeast Oklahoma.

Some locally heavy rain, on the order of 1 to 1.25 inches, is
forecast across southeast Oklahoma tonight into Monday. The
heaviest rains, however, are expected to fall south of the Red
River.

Patchy dense fog across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
will reduce visibilities down to as low as a quarter mile through
mid-morning. Drivers should be alert to rapidly changing
visibilities.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...High Wind and Fire Weather Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Isolated thunderstorms will affect portions of far eastern
Oklahoma into western Arkansas Monday morning. Decreasing
instability with time will negate the severe weather threat.

A strong upper storm system is forecast to move into the central
Plains Thursday. Strong south winds from the system will raise
fire weather concerns.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$

Lacy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
423 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201030-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
423 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Fog...
Areas of fog, some locally dense, will affect portions of the area
through the morning hours. Drivers be prepared for sudden changes
in visibility.

.Thunderstorms...
There is a risk of strong to severe storms across portions of
central and southern Oklahoma, and all of western north Texas.

Location...
A Slight Risk is southeast of a line from Knox City to Vernon
Texas, to Grandfield and Waurika Oklahoma. A Marginal Risk is
south and east of a line from Hollis and Clinton, to Watonga then
to Stillwater Oklahoma.

Timing...
The most likely time will be from 4 pm to 2 am.

Impacts...
Hail to the size of half dollars and wind gusts to 60 mph will be
the main concerns. Locally heavy rain will also be possible.

Discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
area through Monday morning. The thunderstorms will likely begin
to affect parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas this
afternoon. The showers and storms will then become more
widespread this evening with a broken line of storms likely
developing. This line will move east across the area this evening
and overnight. Sufficient instability and wind shear could develop
for some strong to severe storms to develop late this afternoon
and tonight. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary
threats. The potential for severe storms will decrease overnight.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk area should prepare for severe weather operations late this
afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Monday with rain
chances ending from west to east through the day. No severe
weather is expected Monday.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to Critical wildfire conditions will be possible across
portions of the area Tuesday through Friday. The Critical
conditions are expected on Thursday across portions of western
Oklahoma and western north Texas due to warm temperatures, low
humidities, and gusty southwest winds.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
409 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-192215-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
409 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A dense fog advisory remains over southeast Louisiana and southern
Mississippi through 9 am today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The next disturbance will begin to affect the north central Gulf
region Monday and may last through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall and
strong thunderstorms could be an issue with this system. The
timing, spacial extent and strength of this system will continue
to be assessed and adjusted.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201000-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
400 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Patchy fog and light drizzle will reduce visibility this morning
to less than 3 miles. A few areas could experience locally dense
fog with visibility below a 1/2 mile at times. Use caution if
driving this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

An upper level trough will approach the state tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop around midnight and
overspread the region. A few of the storms could become strong
west of a Crockett to Houston to Bay City line with gusty winds
and small hail. However, The primary hazard will be heavy rain.
At this time...the heaviest rain is expected to fall between 3 AM
and 9 AM with light to moderate rain lingering into the afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight into early Monday.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Areas of fog...some dense...will affect portions of central and
northeast Arkansas through mid morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Friday

Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast for Monday and Monday
night as a slow moving storm system moves across the region. While
the overall threat for hazardous weather should remain low...some
localized heavy rainfall may be seen.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

$$

55

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
340 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
340 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Thunderstorms will develop across western portions of North Texas
Sunday afternoon and evening and spread east across the region
overnight. Some of the storms in the afternoon and evening hours could
become strong or severe, primarily along and west of the I-35/35W
corridor. Damaging wind and hail will be the main hazards, but there
will also be a low tornado threat.

A larger area of rain is expected to develop across the region
tonight. Minor flooding will be the primary concern overnight, but there
may also be a low threat for strong or severe storms overnight with a
threat for damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Thunderstorms will end from west to east across the region Monday.
Some storms may produce heavy rainfall Monday morning that may cause
minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested west of a Waco to Fort Worth to
Gainesville line this afternoon and evening. Limited spotter
activation may also be requested overnight across parts of North and
Central Texas.

$$

JLDunn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
303 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-201115-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
303 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Locally dense fog will be possible through midmorning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

$$

PWB

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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