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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
OKC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-045-047-
049-051-053-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-
093-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-129-133-137-141-149-151-153-TXC009-
023-077-155-197-275-485-487-061200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 PM CST THU MAR 05 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS SPRING.
FLOODING IN THIS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS USUALLY OCCURS IN RESPONSE
TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS. HOWEVER, THE RED RIVER AND OTHER
LARGER RIVERS MAY FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS. MANY CURRENT HYDROLOGIC INDICATORS REFLECT AN ONGOING
DROUGHT THAT HAS GRIPPED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL YEARS. THE
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
DRIER FOR THE LAST YEAR AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE LAST 90 DAYS ARE BELOW AVERAGE TO WELL-
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE
ARE WIDESPREAD AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 75 PERCENT-OF-
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. LARGE, SCATTERED AREAS THROUGHOUT OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 50 PERCENT-OF-
AVERAGE RAINFALL IN THE LAST 90 DAYS.

STREAM AND RIVER DISCHARGES AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA ARE BELOW NORMAL TO WELL-BELOW NORMAL. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ARE EXPERIENCING STREAMFLOWS BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE.  STREAMFLOWS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY ABOVE LAKE TEXOMA
IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ARE SHOWING THE
EFFECTS OF THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT.  DISCHARGES IN THIS AREA ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT-OF-AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
CURRENTLY REFLECT THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE
DOMINATED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS PLAGUED BY BELOW-
NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WITH VALUES BETWEEN THE 20TH AND 30TH
PERCENTILES. SOIL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS, WITH CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE 30TH AND 70TH PERCENTILES
OF HISTORICAL CONDITIONS.

RESERVOIR STORAGE IN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CURRENTLY
VARIES BETWEEN THE STRUCTURES IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER SYSTEM AND THOSE
IN THE RED RIVER SYSTEM.  U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE
RED RIVER SYSTEM ARE EXTREMELY DRY AND HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF FLOOD
CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE. IN THE AGGREGATE, THE RESERVOIRS IN
OKLAHOMA HAVE 110 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE
AT THIS TIME.  AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN THE ARKANSAS SYSTEM IS
APPROXIMATELY 108 PERCENT OF DESIGNED FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE.
AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN THE RED RIVER SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 114
PERCENT OF DESIGN FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S (CPC) SEASONAL OUTLOOK (MAR-APR-MAY)
CALLS FOR INCREASED CHANCES (33%-40%) OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE OUTLOOK ALSO
CALL FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL, BELOW-NORMAL, AND NEAR-
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, THE OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR INCREASED CHANCES (33%-40%) OF ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL FOR
THE UPPER RED RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF FEBRUARY 24, 2015 INDICATES THAT AREAS
IN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ARE EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY
(D0) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) OR
MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) CONDITIONS DOMINATE NEAR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION AND REACH EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS IN
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CPC U.S.
SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK OF FEBRUARY 19, 2015 INDICATES DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
PERSIST OR INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.

THANKS TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS, OKLAHOMA WATER RESOURCES BOARD, AND OTHER FEDERAL, STATE
AND LOCAL GROUPS FOR STREAMFLOW AND RESERVOIR DATA, AND THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS,
THE SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS, AND THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION, FORECAST, AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS/LAKES LINK UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER SECTION.


$$

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-049-05
1-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-
099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-1
47-149-070600-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS A
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHICH IS WHOLLY LOCATED WITHIN THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS. IT ENCOMPASSES AN AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE WHITE RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM BULL SHOALS DAM DOWNSTREAM...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM DARDANELLE DOWNSTREAM...AND THE OUACHITA
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM THE HEADWATERS TO THE UPPER BOUNDARY OF
THE FELSENTHAL NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE. ALONG WITH THE MAIN STEM OF
THESE RIVERS...IT ALSO INCLUDES TRIBUTARIES WITH FORECAST LOCATIONS
ON THE CACHE...BLACK...SPRING...SALINE...PETIT JEAN...FOURCHE
LAFAVE...LITTLE MISSOURI...BUFFALO...LITTLE RED...AND ELEVEN POINT
RIVERS.

EXISTING CONDITIONS...

RAINFALL - PRECIPITATION TOTALS DURING THE LAST 90 DAYS FOR ARKANSAS
HAVE BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. WIDESPREAD AREAS IN
NORTHWESTERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. ONLY IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE DO 90-DAY TOTALS APPROACH
OR EXCEED THE AVERAGE.

SNOWPACK - SNOWPACK ESTIMATES FROM THE NATIONAL OPERATIONS
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC) INDICATE A LIGHT TO MEDIUM
SNOWPACK IN ARKANSAS. DENSEST SNOWPACK RESIDES IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WHITE RIVER BASIN. ALTHOUGH THIS
SNOWMELT WILL LIKELY PROLONG MINOR FLOODING TO THIS AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT WITH
REGARD TO SPRING FLOODING.

SOIL MOISTURE - SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN ARKANSAS ARE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL...WITH ESTIMATES BETWEEN THE 30TH AND 70TH PERCENTILE.
WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...MELTING WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY. IF HEAVY RAIN WAS TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...RUNOFF WOULD BE ELEVATED.

RIVER FLOWS AND RESERVOIRS - STREAMFLOWS WERE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
THIS WINTER UNTIL THIS LAST HEAVY RAIN/SNOW EVENT WHICH TEMPORARILY
BROUGHT STREAMFLOWS UP INTO THE 76TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS EARLY
SPRING WINTER EVENT BROUGHT MINOR FLOODING TO THE
BLACK...WHITE...CACHE...AND OUACHITA RIVERS WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO
MID MARCH. CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS IN ARKANSAS ARE AT LEVELS
APPROXIMATING DESIGN CONDITIONS WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD
CONTROL CAPACITY AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.

WHITE RIVER BASIN...

PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT HAS LED TO MINOR RISES ALONG RIVERS IN
THE BLACK AND WHITE RIVER BASINS. OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS
NORMAL BUT WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS ON THE BLACK...LOWER WHITE RIVER
AND CACHE RIVERS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
BLACK AND WHITE BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE
IS GIVEN BELOW.

                                            2/18   3/4
                     BULL SHOALS RES. AR    100%  100%
                         NORFORK RES. AR    100%  100%
                    GREERS FERRY RES. AR    100%  100%


ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THIS SPRING. FLOODING IN WESTERN ARKANSAS USUALLY OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS. HOWEVER...THE ARKANSAS
RIVER MAY FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS
TO ALTER THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OF THE AREA.

CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS ARE AT LEVELS APPROXIMATING DESIGN
CONDITIONS. THEY HAVE APPROXIMATELY 99 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD
CONTROL CAPACITY AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. STREAMFLOWS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER ARE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TRIBUTARIES ABOVE AVERAGE ON ACCOUNT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. OBSERVED FLOW ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS
RIVER IS CURRENTLY NEAR 25000 CFS WHICH IS 33% OF NORMAL COMPARED TO
THE LONG TERM AVERAGE OF 76000 CFS FOR EARLY MARCH.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS SEASONAL OUTLOOK (MAR-APR-MAY) CALLS
FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL...BELOW-NORMAL...AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-MEDIAN...BELOW-MEDIAN...AND NEAR-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF FEBRUARY 24TH 2015 INDICATES
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS ARE EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY
DRY (D0) CONDITIONS BUT CALLS FOR NO INTENSIFICATION OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.

OUACHITA RIVER BASIN...

STREAMFLOWS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ARKANSAS. SOIL MOISTURE
CONTENT IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AND DUE TO RECENT SNOW AND
RAINFALL MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST AND/OR OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER OUACHITA. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF
MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/4
OUACHITA RIVER                 CAMDEN AR    282%
OUACHITA RIVER                 MONROE LA    143%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
OUACHITA BASIN. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL
STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW.


                                            3/4
                        LAKE OUACHITA AR    100%
                          DEGRAY RES. AR    100%
                         LAKE GREESON AR    100%

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES SLIGHT CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...AND
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER ARKANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE OHIO AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL...ABOVE
NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS REGION. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER ARKANSAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CONCLUSION...

THROUGH MID MARCH MINOR FLOODING WILL PERSIST AS THE SNOWPACKS
ACROSS THE STATE MELTS. THE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE LINGERING
SNOWMELT WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RUNOFF WITH ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP STREAMFLOW SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
SPRING.

BY APRIL/MAY...EXPECT THE NORMAL PERIODS OF HIGHLY CONVECTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED HIGH QUANTITIES OF RAINFALL OCCURRING
PERIODICALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD AND OVER SMALLER WATERSHEDS. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATORS THAT SUGGEST AN OVERLY WET OR
SEVERELY DRY SPRING...ANY LOCALIZED HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN
CREATE FLASH FLOODING AT ANY TIME. THIS SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK DEFINES LONG TERM RIVER FLOODING...AND DOES NOT ASSESS THE
RISK OF SHORT TERM FLOODING.

THE SPRING POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS A ROUTINE PRODUCT. SHOULD EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BECOME PART OF THE FORECAST AT ANY OTHER TIME OF THE
YEAR...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED WITH EVENT SPECIFIC
INFORMATION. ALSO LOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLOOD WATCHES.
IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMAIN SITUATIONALLY AWARE.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION.

$$

61

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-060815-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
211 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS SPRING. FLOODING IN THIS AREA
USUALLY OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
HOWEVER...THE ARKANSAS RIVER MAY FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO MORE WIDESPREAD
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF EXTREME
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO ALTER THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OF THE AREA. MANY
CURRENT HYDROLOGIC INDICATORS REFLECT AN ONGOING DROUGHT THAT HAS
GRIPPED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL YEARS. HOWEVER...EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE GOTTEN MORE RELIEF OVER THE
LAST YEAR COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER WEST.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE LAST 90 DAYS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN BELOW TO WELL-BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THE
AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 HAS RECEIVED 25 PERCENT TO 75 PERCENT OF
THE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST THREE MONTHS...WHILE LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 HAVE RECEIVED 50 TO 90 PERCENT OF THE AVERAGE.
THE RED RIVER BASIN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH 75 TO AROUND 100
PERCENT OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 90 DAYS.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SOIL PROFILE WERE NEAR
NORMAL. HOWEVER FURTHER DOWN...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXIST WITH SOIL
MOISTURE ANOMALIES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 PERCENT TO AROUND 100
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS REFLECTS THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS
THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...STREAM AND RIVER DISCHARGES
WERE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE ARKANSAS STATE
LINE. STREAMFLOWS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE ARKANSAS...VERDIGRIS
AND GRAND-NEOSHO BASINS WERE GENERALLY BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A FEW STREAMFLOWS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE.

RESERVOIR STORAGE IN OKLAHOMA CURRENTLY VARIES BETWEEN THE STRUCTURES
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER SYSTEM AND THOSE IN THE RED RIVER SYSTEM. IN THE
AGGREGATE...THE RESERVOIRS IN OKLAHOMA HAVE 110 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD
CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS
OF ENGINEERS. AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN THE ARKANSAS SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY
108 PERCENT OF DESIGNED FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE. AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN
THE RED RIVER SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 114 PERCENT OF DESIGN FLOOD CONTROL
STORAGE. 100 PERCENT OF DESIGN FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS ALSO AVAILABLE
IN THE WHITE RIVER BASIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE 19 FEBRUARY 2014 CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ SPRING /MAR-
APR-MAY/ OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW...AND NEAR
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AND A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE /33-40 PERCENT/
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF 3 MARCH 2014 INDICATES SEVERE /D2/
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS PAWNEE...OSAGE...NORTHERN
CREEK...AND FAR WESTERN TULSA COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING IN
CREEK...TULSA...FAR NORTHERN OKMULGEE...WESTERN
WAGONER...ROGERS...SOUTHWEST NOWATA...AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WERE ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ BUT NOT IN DROUGHT. THE CPC U.S.
MONTHLY DROUGHT OUTLOOK OF 28 FEBRUARY 2014 INDICATES THAT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR INTENSIFY IN THE D1/D2 AREA DURING MARCH
2014...AND ADDITIONAL DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 AND THE INDIAN NATION TURNPIKE.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS/LAKES LINK UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER SECTION OR THE RIVER
FORECASTS LINK UNDER THE FORECASTS SECTION.



$$

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
061845-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1238 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

INTRODUCTION...

THIS IS THE 2015 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. THIS ISSUANCE
OUTLINES CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND HIGHLIGHTS
POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT COULD INDUCE FLOODING.

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS...SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE EXPERIENCED GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TO TO NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE WATER YEAR SO FAR
(SINCE OCTOBER 1 2014) WITH RAIN TOTALS RUNNING BETWEEN 50 AND 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POCKETS IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN NEAR
NORMAL.

ACCORDING TO THE US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)...CURRENT 28 DAY
AVERAGE STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS WITH FLOWS AVERAGING 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL. RECENT
RAINFALLS IN THE PAST WEEK HAVE CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
SHORT TERM STREAM FLOWS.

THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA.


RIVER BASIN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...

...NECHES AND SABINE RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES...

RAINFALL THE PAST TWO MONTHS HAS BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON THE SABINE AND NECHES BASINS. BASED ON EXISTING SOIL
MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD
BE REMEMBERED THAT FLOODING IN THE SABINE AND NECHES BASINS RESULTS
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND THESE
OCCURRENCES CAN NOT BE PREDICTED WELL IN ADVANCE.


...CALCASIEU...MERMENTAU AND VERMILION RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES...

DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE CALCASIEU AND MERMENTAU BASINS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS
NORMAL. SEASONAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST. OBSERVED DAILY
STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/4
CALCASIEU RIVER              GLENMORA LA     111%
CALCASIEU RIVER                KINDER LA      97%
MERMENTAU RIVER             MERMENTAU LA     193%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MERMENTAU AND CALCASIEU BASINS.


...LOWER RED RIVER...

STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE RED RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF
FULTON ARKANSAS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ALLEVIATED FROM ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. UPPER RED BASIN AND
OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RED RIVER
BASIN.

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...A AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY.

...ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...
DURING THE EARLY WINTER, MUCH BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER WHILE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS OCCURRED IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVER
THE PAST TWO WEEKS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHICH HAS LED TO NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
ON THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO FLOODING HAS
OCCURRED ON THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS SEASON.
CURRENTLY MINOR RISES ARE OCCURRING ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
APPROACHING VICKSBURG.

AS OF MARCH 4...STREAMFLOW ON THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER NEAR SIMMESPORT
WAS NEAR 77% OF NORMAL.

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW COVER AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT...COUPLED WITH THE
FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.


METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS...BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.  CURRENTLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA.

CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH INDICATES GREATER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA...WHILE THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.


PLEASE DIRECT QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THIS OUTLOOK TO...

JONATHAN BRAZZELL
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
OR
MONTRA LOCKWOOD
FORECASTER
AT 337.477.5285 EXT 1

REFERENCES...
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS:
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST.SHTML

US DROUGHT MONITOR AND OUTLOOK:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/EXPERT_ASSESSMENT/SEASON_DROUGHT.GIF

TX DROUGHT INFORMATION:
HTTP://WWW.TWDB.STATE.TX.US/APPS/DROUGHTINFO/ALLMAPVIEW.ASPX

CLIMATE GRAPHICS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/LEAD01/OFF01_TEMP.GIF
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/LEAD01/OFF01_PRCP.GIF

$$

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-095-
103-105-109-117-121-125-MSC005-045-047-059-109-113-147-157-062300-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
1215 PM CST THU MARCH 5 2015

...2015 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN SPRING 2015 WILL GENERALLY BE
AVERAGE...

INTRODUCTION...

THIS IS THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA FOR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS PRODUCT IS INTENDED TO OUTLINE CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT WOULD INDUCE
FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT.

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION - OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS...NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE UPPER AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES - COLDER TEMPERATURES PRODUCED FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR
SEVERAL OF THIS WINTER`S PRECIPITATION EVENTS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING AGAIN IN
MID-MARCH FOR SEVERAL AREAS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) - SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 0.5
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 0.5 TO 20 INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
IN KENTUCKY.

SNOW DEPTH - SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTH IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 2 TO 20 INCHES WITH SOME
HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT - AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW OCCURRED
RECENTLY OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED
SNOW COVER REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS, KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THIS SNOW
SHOULD MELT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS - SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

FLOODING - MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER IN
LOUISIANA AND ALONG THE LOWER PEARL RIVER.


EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHER CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE OHIO AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.


MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASINS...

DURING THE EARLY WINTER...MUCH BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER...WHILE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS OCCURRED IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVER
THE PAST TWO WEEKS...CONDITIONS IMPROVED AS A RESULT OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  STREAMFLOW CONDITONS ON THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE CURRENTLY AT NORMAL LEVELS.

DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO FLOODING HAS
OCCURRED ON THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS SEASON.
CURRENTLY...MINOR RISES ARE OCCURRING ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
APPROACHING VICKSBURG.

SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS:

                                             3/4
MISSISSIPPI RIVER           VICKSBURG MS     87%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER             NATCHEZ MS     96%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER   RED RIVER LANDING LA     76%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER         BATON ROUGE LA     77%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER         NEW ORLEANS LA     74%
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER          SIMMESPORT LA     77%


PEARL RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAUSED FLOODING ACROSS
THE UPPER PEARL RIVER BASIN. ELEVATED LEVELS HAVE RECEDED OVER THE
UPPER PEARL RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

THE LOWER PEARL BASIN IS STILL EXPERIENCING RISES FROM UPSTREAM.
MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/4
PEARL RIVER                   JACKSON MS     146%
PEARL RIVER                MONTICELLO MS     179%
PEARL RIVER                  BOGALUSA LA     135%


AMITE/COMITE/NORTHSHORE DRAINAGE BASINS...

DURING THE WINTER, DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS PRODUCED MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AND SOIL MOISTURE
CONTENT IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/4
AMITE RIVER                DARLINGTON LA     195%
AMITE RIVER            DENHAM SPRINGS LA     535%
COMITE RIVER             OLIVE BRANCH LA     392%
TCHEFUNCTE RIVER               FOLSOM LA     452%
TICKFAW RIVER                  HOLDEN LA     279%
TANGIPAHOA RIVER               ROBERT LA     282%


PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...

BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER WINTER HAS LED TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS
OVER THE PASCAGOULA BASIN. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/4
PASCAGOULA RIVER              MERRILL MS     110%


2015 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI, AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COVER
AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT; COUPLED WITH THE FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND
EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN
DOWNSTREAM OF JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI TO THE GULF COAST.

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AMITE RIVER...
COMITE RIVER...AND OTHER NORTHSHORE RIVER BASINS.

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PASCAGOULA RIVER
BASIN.

STREAMFLOW DATA PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE U.S.
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2015.


PLEASE DIRECT COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS TO:
PATRICIA BROWN
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
WFO NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE, LA
(985) 645-0565 EXT. 228

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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