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Special Weather Statement


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141-143>146-060600-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA
358 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT...

BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S WERE ENOUGH TO MELT MOST OF THE SNOW AND ICE ON THE
ROADWAYS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO
ATHENS. HOWEVER TO THE NORTH...THERE WAS STILL SOME EVIDENCE OF AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET STILL ON THE GROUND...AND POSSIBLY ON
AREA ROADWAYS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. FOR LOCATIONS WHERE WATER OR SLUSH REMAIN ON
AREA ROADWAYS A REFREEZING WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING AFTER 9 PM THIS EVENING. AFTER THIS
TIME...WET OR SLUSHY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY AGAIN. WHILE NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
DANGEROUS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY LINGERING
WATER OR SLUSH TO FREEZE ON ALL AREA ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW MORNING
BY 10 AM. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO MELT ANY LINGERING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DRY OUT ROADS BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

CAVANAUGH


Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-062130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
326 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WET OR SLUSHY SECTIONS OF ROADS WILL RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S...CREATING LOCALIZED ICY AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ICY SECTIONS OF ROADS EARLY FRIDAY WILL THAW LATE MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED.

$$


Hydrologic Outlook


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
OKC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-045-047-
049-051-053-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-
093-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-129-133-137-141-149-151-153-TXC009-
023-077-155-197-275-485-487-061200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 PM CST THU MAR 05 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS SPRING.
FLOODING IN THIS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS USUALLY OCCURS IN RESPONSE
TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS. HOWEVER, THE RED RIVER AND OTHER
LARGER RIVERS MAY FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS. MANY CURRENT HYDROLOGIC INDICATORS REFLECT AN ONGOING
DROUGHT THAT HAS GRIPPED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL YEARS. THE
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
DRIER FOR THE LAST YEAR AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE LAST 90 DAYS ARE BELOW AVERAGE TO WELL-
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE
ARE WIDESPREAD AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 75 PERCENT-OF-
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. LARGE, SCATTERED AREAS THROUGHOUT OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 50 PERCENT-OF-
AVERAGE RAINFALL IN THE LAST 90 DAYS.

STREAM AND RIVER DISCHARGES AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA ARE BELOW NORMAL TO WELL-BELOW NORMAL. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ARE EXPERIENCING STREAMFLOWS BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE.  STREAMFLOWS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY ABOVE LAKE TEXOMA
IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ARE SHOWING THE
EFFECTS OF THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT.  DISCHARGES IN THIS AREA ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT-OF-AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
CURRENTLY REFLECT THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE
DOMINATED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS PLAGUED BY BELOW-
NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WITH VALUES BETWEEN THE 20TH AND 30TH
PERCENTILES. SOIL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS, WITH CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE 30TH AND 70TH PERCENTILES
OF HISTORICAL CONDITIONS.

RESERVOIR STORAGE IN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CURRENTLY
VARIES BETWEEN THE STRUCTURES IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER SYSTEM AND THOSE
IN THE RED RIVER SYSTEM.  U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE
RED RIVER SYSTEM ARE EXTREMELY DRY AND HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF FLOOD
CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE. IN THE AGGREGATE, THE RESERVOIRS IN
OKLAHOMA HAVE 110 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE
AT THIS TIME.  AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN THE ARKANSAS SYSTEM IS
APPROXIMATELY 108 PERCENT OF DESIGNED FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE.
AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN THE RED RIVER SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 114
PERCENT OF DESIGN FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S (CPC) SEASONAL OUTLOOK (MAR-APR-MAY)
CALLS FOR INCREASED CHANCES (33%-40%) OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE OUTLOOK ALSO
CALL FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL, BELOW-NORMAL, AND NEAR-
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, THE OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR INCREASED CHANCES (33%-40%) OF ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL FOR
THE UPPER RED RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF FEBRUARY 24, 2015 INDICATES THAT AREAS
IN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ARE EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY
(D0) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) OR
MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) CONDITIONS DOMINATE NEAR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION AND REACH EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS IN
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CPC U.S.
SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK OF FEBRUARY 19, 2015 INDICATES DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
PERSIST OR INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.

THANKS TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS, OKLAHOMA WATER RESOURCES BOARD, AND OTHER FEDERAL, STATE
AND LOCAL GROUPS FOR STREAMFLOW AND RESERVOIR DATA, AND THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS,
THE SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS, AND THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION, FORECAST, AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS/LAKES LINK UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER SECTION.


$$

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-071945-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
131 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

BELOW AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2015...THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
FORECASTING A BELOW AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING OVER ALL
RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HYDROLOGIC SERVICES
AREA (HSA). THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING BASINS...COLORADO
RIVER...BRAZOS RIVER...SAN MARCOS RIVER...GUADALUPE RIVER...SAN
ANTONIO RIVER...MEDINA RIVER...NUECES RIVER...FRIO RIVER AND THE
RIO GRANDE.

EXISTING CONDITIONS...ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAJORITY OF
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) IS CURRENTLY IN MODERATE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE
NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU.

SOIL MOISTURE...SOILS ARE CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY DRY TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE DRIEST SOILS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND
AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SEVERAL YEARS OF DROUGHT...OR AT LEAST DRIER THAN
AVERAGE CONDITIONS HAVE CAUSED SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS TO BE BELOW
AVERAGE. SOILS ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST
RAINFALL EVENTS WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. IF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE TO BECOME EXCESSIVE THEN A THREAT WOULD
EXIST FOR RIVER FLOODING.

STREAMFLOW...DURING MUCH OF THE FALL AND WINTER STREAMFLOWS HAVE
REMAINED BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST BASINS. THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN HAS CONTINUED TO SEE NEAR NORMAL FLOWS. THERE WERE
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DID CAUSE SOME INCREASED
FLOWS...BUT THESE EVENTS WERE VERY LIMITED AND MOSTLY IN OR NEAR
URBAN LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY THE GUADALUPE...MEDINA...FRIO AND
NUECES BASINS WERE REPORTING MUCH BELOW AVERAGE FLOWS. THE
COLORADO REPORTED BELOW AVERAGE FLOWS. THE SAN ANTONIO AND RIO
GRANDE BASINS WERE REPORTING NORMAL FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...RESERVOIRS AND LAKES ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICES AREA (HSA) REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL ELEVATION
LEVELS. A FEW RESERVOIRS HAVE SEEN IMPROVEMENTS AND ARE CURRENTLY
NEAR CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SLIGHT RISES
IN THE LEVELS OVER THE FALL AND WINTER...BUT MOST REMAIN VERY LOW.
MEDINA LAKE WAS AT 3.2 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION CAPACITY OR 89.8
FEET BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL. LAKE TRAVIS REMAINS AT 34.2
PERCENT OF CAPACITY OR 55.2 FEET BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL. WITH
THESE EXTREMELY LOW LAKE LEVELS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET BACK
TO THE NORMAL CONSERVATION POOL.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPORADIC DURING THE FALL AND WINTER
WITH A COUPLE OF MONTHS SEEING ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COUPLE WITH
BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL. THE RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO DIMINISH SHORT
TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS...BUT THE LONGER TERM IMPACTS REMAIN DUE TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT EXTEND BACK 18-24 MONTHS.

CLIMATE REGIME...AN WEAK ENSO (EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) EL
NINO PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 2015 SPRING.
THE ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN IN A FEW MONTHS DURING THE FALL AND WINTER ARE CHARACTERISTIC
OF AN EL NINO EVENT.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
MONTHLY AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING
(MARCH/APRIL/MAY) AND INTO THE SUMMER (JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRONGER TRENDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MAY. FOR THE SUMMER PERIOD THE
STRONGER TRENDS ARE CALLING FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW OR
NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST UNITED STATES
SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUING OR
INTENSIFYING THROUGH MAY 31 2015 ACROSS THE AREAS CURRENTLY IN
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICES AREA (HSA).

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
AFTER SEVERAL YEARS OF DROUGHT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...LOW STREAM FLOWS AND THE VERY LOW LAKE
AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING DURING
2015 IS BELOW AVERAGE.

REFERENCES/LINKS;
(USE ALL LOWER CASE)

PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS:
WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/

RESERVOIR SUMMARIES:
WATERFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/
REGIONAL_MONITORING/PALMER.GIF

US DROUGHT MONITOR AND OUTLOOK:
DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

TX DROUGHT INFORMATION:
WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/
CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU

CLIMATE GRAPHICS:
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/

LOCAL WEATHER...RIVER...CLIMATE AND FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS:
SRH.WEATHER.GOV/EWX

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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