Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-220815-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
311 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 /211 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LOCAL AREA COMING
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...5 PERCENT
WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT...OF DAMAGING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND A 2 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TORNADO WITHIN
25 MILES OF A POINT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT FAVOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...OR
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. COUNTERING THIS FAVORABLE FACTOR WILL BE
LIMITED INSTABILITY...AS IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THAT THE
WARM...MOISTURE RICH AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INLAND
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD CAUSE SMALL SCALE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK DUE TO VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM THE COMPUTER MODELS USED TO
FORECAST THE WEATHER. ONE MODEL FORECASTS FAIR AND MILD WEATHER
WHILE THE OTHER FORECASTS A RAIN EVENT BY MID WEEK. EVEN IF THE
RAINY SOLUTION IS CORRECT...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL OCCUR.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SPOTTERS ARE
ASKED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...IN
CASE A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DOES MATERIALIZE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.
$$
FOURNIER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
508 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-221100-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
508 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...PATCHY DENSE EARLY MORNING FOG...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES...
...FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...
LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL KEEP AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES. REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR
MORE DETAILS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES AROUND A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. A FEW STORMS LATER TONIGHT
MAY BECOME STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
...FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER AT LOCAL BEACHES INTO
THE WEEKEND...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA
DURING THE MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
$$
PP/JTD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
432 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-212145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
432 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE OR LESS ALONG MAJOR INTERSTATES
AND HIGHWAYS THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MOTORISTS MUST
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING IN FOG. SLOW DOWN...USE LOW
BEAM HEADLIGHTS AND KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DEADLY
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
$$
REYNES
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
230 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-211200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
230 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM FOR
THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL LIFT EAST
NORTHEAST SATURDAY TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND THEN MOVE
UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES...UPWARDS AROUND 1.5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE SPRING TIDAL CYCLE...AND THE
OCCURRENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS...THERE EXISTS THE
POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING
SHORES WITH TOTAL TIDE HEIGHT FROM 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING INCLUDE THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND AND OVER THE
MOBILE BAY CAUSEWAY MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW LOOKING TO BE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST...
THERE IS MORE CONCERN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TORNADOES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD BE MONITORED
AS IT AFFECTED THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
AND BUILDING SEAS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE
SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES AS THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE GULF LOW MATERIALIZES. NO OTHER FORMS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WILL
NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
$$
