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Hazardous Weather Outlook


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
517 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
517 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017


...Severe Storm Potential Friday and Friday Night...


This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.


THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma...mainly west of Highway 75.
ONSET...After 3 AM.


FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Late Morning.

    Area at Greatest Risk...Northeast Oklahoma...mainly northwest of Interstate 44.

DISCUSSION...
Increasing south winds and warmer temperatures will lead to
increasing fire spread potential today ahead of an approaching
upper level system. Moisture will also be increasing, which will
keep the humidity above critical levels. However...the highest
spread rates can be expected across northeast Oklahoma where winds
may gust near 40 mph at times from late morning through the
afternoon.

Late tonight...thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across
parts of eastern Oklahoma ahead of an approaching dryline and
upper system. Storms late tonight are not expected to be
severe...however coverage of thunderstorms and severe potential
will increase after sunrise Friday.


SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY... Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY Through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage
Friday morning and afternoon along a dryline that will move east
across the region throughout the day. The primary severe weather
threats with these storms will be damaging straight line winds and
locally heavy rainfall. Additional storms may develop during the
overnight hours Friday as the upper level low moves overhead.
Storms associated with the upper low will have some potential for
quarter to half dollar size hail. Thunderstorm chances will
decrease from west to east Saturday as the upper low clears the
area.

Additionally...there is potential for a rapid increase in fire
danger Friday afternoon across northeast Oklahoma behind the dry
line. Gusty, dry southwest winds of 25-35 mph during the afternoon
will drop relative humidity values around 25% in these locations
during the afternoon.

An active weather pattern will resume late Sunday and likely
will continue well into next week. This will result in multiple
chances for thunderstorms, along with severe storm potential.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
539 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-241045-
McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-
Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-Sabine-
539 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Oklahoma...east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Patchy fog has developed across portions of deep east Texas this
morning, and will spread northeast to or near the Interstate 20
corridor by daybreak. The fog will scour out by mid-morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Thunderstorm chances will increase Friday as a strong upper level
storm system moves onto the Southern Plains to across the Four-
State region. These storms could intensify and become severe as
they shift into the region late Friday afternoon through Friday
evening, with the threat for damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms may continue on Saturday,
however the severe threat will be decreasing during that time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
539 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-241045-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
539 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas...southwest Arkansas...north central Louisiana and
northwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Patchy fog has developed across portions of central Louisiana
early this morning, and will spread northeast to or near the
Interstate 20 corridor by daybreak. The fog will scour out by mid-
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Thunderstorm chances will increase Friday as a strong upper level
storm system moves onto the Southern Plains to across the Four-
State region. These storms could intensify and become severe as
they shift into the region Friday evening through Friday night,
with the threat for damaging winds, large hail, and isolated
tornadoes.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms may continue on Saturday,
however the severe threat will be decreasing during that time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
528 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241030-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
528 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Windy conditions will create a very high to extreme grassland fire
danger for most of the region from midday through this evening.
Areas of extreme grassland fire danger are possible over central
Kansas where a Red flag warning has been issued. A wind advisory has
also been issued for areas west of Interstate 135.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
Central Kansas this evening. The main area of concern will be along
and west of highway 14 with hail up to quarter size and damaging
wind gusts to 65 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Very high to extreme grassland fire danger is forecast for the
region on Friday afternoon.

There will be a couple of chances for thunderstorms across the
region for Friday afternoon and again on Sunday night.

A line of strong to severe storms are possible on Friday afternoon
for areas east of the Flint Hills. Hail up to quarter size and wind
gusts to 60 mph are the main concern.

Another strong to severe storm chance arrives on Sunday evening
for portions of southern Kansas. Quarter size hail and damaging
winds to 60 mph are the main concern, but a tornado cannot be ruled
out along the Kansas Oklahoma border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today but may be needed this
evening across portions of Central Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

$$

Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
506 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241100-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
506 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
With reduced humidity and breezy conditions returning, there is an
elevated threat for wildfires this afternoon, primarily along and
west of a line from Comanche to Glen Rose to Nocona.

Thunderstorms may approach from the west late tonight, potentially
reaching the I-35 corridor before daybreak. However, with a strong
cap remaining in place, severe storms are unlikely to occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning. Their extent will affect
the ability of the atmosphere to recover sufficiently for additional
storm development Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms late in the day
will have the potential to become strong or severe with strong winds
and large hail the primary hazards. The most favored area for intense
convection Friday afternoon and evening will be east of the I-35
corridor.

A fire weather watch is in effect for Friday in those areas generally
along and west of a line from Ranger to Mineral Wells to Nocona.
Strong gusty winds and relative humidity values falling below 20
percent will create extreme fire weather conditions. A red flag
warning will likely be needed and may include additional areas not
currently in the fire weather watch.

The next chance for thunderstorms will be Sunday afternoon through
Sunday night. Some of these storms could become severe. At this
time, the main hazards appear to be damaging straight-line winds and
large hail. All of this activity will move east of the area Monday
morning. The gusty winds associated with this system may re-aggravate
fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon.

The active springlike pattern will persist, and thunderstorms may
return as early as Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances will increase on
Wednesday as the next system approaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
459 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-241000-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
459 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Lightning risk.
  Limited Non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Elevated Fire weather risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible generally north of
  Highway 54 this morning. Occasional cloud to ground lightning
  strikes will occur with any storm that is able to develop
  this morning. No severe weather is expected.

  Southerly wind gusts up to 30 mph will occur this morning
  through tonight generally along and west of Highway 65. These
  gusty winds combined with a warm and dry air mass will lead to
  an elevated fire weather risk west of Highway 65 this
  afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  Southerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected across
  western Missouri and southeastern Kansas Friday morning and
  afternoon.

  A strong storm system will approach and track through the
  region Friday and into Saturday bringing better widespread
  chances for storms late Friday morning into Saturday. There
  will be the potential for severe storms Friday afternoon
  into Friday night as the system passes through the area.

  Another storm system will push into the region late Sunday and
  into Monday bringing additional thunderstorm chances to the
  area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
448 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
448 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight across
parts of far western Oklahoma and far western north Texas.

Location...
The slight risk area is west of a Woodward to Altus, Oklahoma to
Knox City, Texas line. A marginal risk area surrounds the slight
risk area and is west of a Blackwell to Yukon to Duncan, Oklahoma
to Henrietta, Texas line.

Timing...
9 pm to 3 am tonight.

Impacts...
Damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the main hazard.
Hail up to half dollar size may occur as well.

Discussion...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will form after 4 pm this afternoon
across west Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, then likely congeal
into a squall line. This expected squall line will move eastward
into far western Oklahoma and far western north Texas between 9 pm
and midnight. The line of storms is expected to weaken throughout
the night as they move east. Pockets of damaging winds will be
possible.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations
tonight.

.Strong Winds...
Strong winds will form this afternoon into tonight, especially in
western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Some gusts in the 40 to
50 mph range can be expected. A Wind Advisory is in effect.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
this afternoon into early evening due to windy, dry, and warm
conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Fire Weather...
Critical fire weather conditions are likely Friday due to dry and
windy conditions. Southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas
have the greatest chances for critical fire weather conditions on
Friday. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect.

.Strong Winds...
Strong winds are expected again on Friday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours, especially in western Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Some gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range may be
possible. Another Wind Advisory will likely be needed.

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday,
especially along and east of a line from Ponca City to Oklahoma
City to Marietta. If severe storms occur, damaging winds up to
70 mph would be the main hazard. Large hail up to half dollars
would be possible as well.

Thunderstorm chances will linger late Friday night, mainly in
northern Oklahoma, though no severe storms are expected.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible again Sunday
afternoon and evening as another system moves across the region.

Thunderstorms may linger mainly across the eastern half of
Oklahoma early Monday. Thunderstorm chances may return on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
400 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
400 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The threat for hazardous weather is expected to remain low through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

The threat for severe weather will increase Friday afternoon and
continue through the evening hours. A line of strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms is expected to develop over eastern Texas and
Oklahoma earlier in the day and reach the western part of Arkansas
during the mid to late afternoon.

This line is then expected to sweep through the remainder of the
state Friday night, reaching the Mississippi River early Saturday
morning.

Scattered severe storms are possible with strong damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph the most likely threat during this event. However,
there remains a possibility of large hail and even a few tornadoes
with this line of storms. The severe potential with this system will
end by day break Saturday.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Friday evening and night.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

$$

56

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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