-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
979
FXUS61 KAKQ 270812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
412 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches the area today, then moves across the
region later today into tonight. Additional rounds of showers
and storms will occur today into tonight, with potential severe
weather. An upper trough brings cooler and comfortable weather
to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- There is a threat of severe weather today through this
  evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are
  possible.

****Severe weather expected today through this evening with all
 modes of severe possible. Those with outdoor plans today should
 closely monitor the weather for warnings as multiple rounds of
 strong to severe storms could occur.****

The setup for today is complicated and heavily dependent on the
behavior of early-day convection. The broad weather pattern
will be characterized by an approaching mid-level shortwave and
increasing flow aloft. Several subtle impulses will slide
eastward through the area during the day, with one expected to
cross the area from mid morning into this aftn. Several
experimental CAMs show a line of convection crossing the area
from around 15z to near 20z. This could pose a threat of isolated
wind damage, heavy rain, and lightning. The impact of this
activity on later this aftn/early this evening redevelopment is
the main question. While there could be a good degree of
stabilization from this early convection, most guidance insists
of robust airmass recovery with MLCAPE building to 1500+ J/kg in
during this aftn. A few models even show values of 2000-3000
J/kg, which would support extremely strong updrafts. Effective
shear values will be very supportive for severe weather with
35-50 kts across most of the area. Therefore, later this aftn
redevelopment seems like a good bet and all modes of severe will
be possible. The large hail threat is supported by mid-level
lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, highest across the S and SE. With
southerly sfc winds and SW winds aloft, there is also some
directional shear supportive of a non-zero tornado threat.
Forecast soundings show 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH and favorably
curved hodographs, again highest across the S/SE. SPC has the
entire fcst area in a Slight Risk for today, and the introduction
of a 5% tornado threat for most of our CWA. PoP-wise, will have
30-60% PoPs from this morning into this evening. Highs will be
very warm to hot and in the upper 80s/near 90 (lower to mid 80s
immediate coast). Outside of storms, the sky will be mostly or
partly sunny. A cold front will push across the region this
evening into early Tue morning, with pcpn ending from WNW to
ESE. Lows tonight will range through the 60s to near 70.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Quieter Tuesday, with scattered showers and isolated storms across
the north Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

Much quieter Tue, with a lingering shower or storm across the
far SE. Highs in the lower to mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky.
Upper troughing situates over the eastern CONUS for Tue night
through Wed night. On Wed, a potent shortwave will dive SE and
move through nrn portions of the area. This is expected to bring
an increase in cloud cover and isolated to sctd showers, mainly
N and E of the I-64 corridor and esply on the MD Eastern Shore.
Cooler temps aloft will allow for the development of some modest
CAPE in the aftn, so cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder
as well. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Cooler
Wed night with lows in the 50s for most of the area, and near
60/lower 60s for the far SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 410 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Cooler and more comfortable to end the week.

Another shortwave within the larger longwave trough pivots toward
the area later Thu into Fri. However, drier air will work against
any pcpn chances. Still could see increases in cloud cover in the
aftn during peak heating. However, with the drier air and lower
heights aloft, temps will trend back into the 70s with dew points
in the 40s and 50s. Thus, it will feel much more comfortable.
High pressure builds down from the Great Lakes to end the week
and start the weekend favoring a continuation of the dry and
comfortable wx. High temps should begin to inch up some, as
ridging begins to build across the eastern CONUS. Overnight lows
through the extended will be in the 50s to near 60 at the
immediate coast. A few upper 40s are possible Thu and Fri night
across the far NW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this morning
into Tue morning. A couple rounds of showers and tstms will move
across the area from this morning into tonight, with any heavier
showers or storms producing brief sub-VFR CIGs and VSBYs. Winds
will be SSW this morning into tonight, with stronger SSW
prevailing winds expected this aftn into early this evening with
gusts to around 20 kt. A higher coverage of showers and storms
(some of which could be severe) is expected this aftn through
this evening at all terminals. Outside of storms, expect mainly
VFR conditions.

Outlook: VFR/mainly dry conditions expected Tue through Thu.
However, SBY may receive a shower or storm Wed aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Chances for some lingering showers early this morning, with
  more widespread showers reaching the waters by late morning
  into the early afternoon.

- Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by late this
  afternoon into tonight across the Chesapeake Bay and coastal
  waters due to increasing winds and building seas.

Latest analysis reveals a warm front now well north of the local
waters. Winds are S/SE 10-15 kt, seas 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft
(less than 1 ft in the upper rivers). A cold front approaches
the area late today, associated with a deepening low pressure
center over the Great Lakes. Winds increase this afternoon as
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the system. Winds gust to
~20 kt (25 kt over the open ocean this afternoon), while E-SE
wind wave potentially pushes some 5 footers across northern and
central coastal zones this evening. A convective system will
approach the area by mid to late morning, and may prompt some
Marine Warnings. Some additional storms will be possible with
the frontal passage itself as it pushes into the area this
evening.

The front still looks to slow down or stall over the waters
Monday night before getting pushed through the region Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Winds veer around to the NW behind the front
on Tuesday night through midweek. A second, reinforcing shot of
cooler and drier air could bring another period of stronger
northerly winds late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Moderate Rip Risk for northern beaches today with building seas
and more of a shore normal component to wave energy. Will keep
low risk for tomorrow for now, but will need to watch progress
of the front. If it is indeed a bit slower, winds could briefly
turn southerly tomorrow afternoon across the eastern shore
beaches. If this occurs, a Moderate Rip Risk may be needed over
northern portions.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...SW/TMG
LONG TERM...SW/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJB/MAM