-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
544
FXUS64 KAMA 210723
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
223 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Current GOES-16 water vapor imagery depicts and positively tilted
mid to upper level trough digging down much of the Intermountain
West. Over the combined Panhandles is southwest flow aloft on the
back edge of a ridge that brought well above normal temperatures
yesterday. Today will still be warm but not quiet as warm with the
trough moving toward the Great Plains allowing for some height
falls in the lower levels. For this afternoon looking at a high
around 89 for Amarillo with the western OK Panhandle around 82.

Surface obs show a leeside surface low over the northwestern
combined Panhandles into SE CO and NE NM. To the east a dryline
has the eastern combined Panhandles separated from the west with
dewpoints in the upper 60s, while areas such as Amarillo westward
have Tds in the mid 20s. These higher dewpoints in the east are
expected to get pushed out of the FA into western OK with much of
the area seeing the lower Tds with breezy southwest winds this
afternoon. Depending on how this aforementioned surface progresses
the central to eastern OK Panhandle may stay with some 40 Tds with
more of a stalled cold front separating the northeastern quarter
or so of the combined Panhandles from the southwest.

Going into this evening the surface low is progged to track to
the south to southeast allowing a cold front to bring northerly
winds this evening after dark. This will allow much of the area to
see Tds rise back into the 40s in the wake of the front.
Tomorrow, with northeasterly to easterly upsloping winds post
front, daytime temperatures expected to be closer to normal with a
high of 80 expected for Amarillo. Overnight

36
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM ...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Thursday onward, warm temperatures are expected once again with
many of the afternoons through the extended reaching a high in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. There may be shot, although low chances at
this time, for some thunderstorms to develop across the eastern
combined Panhandles on Thu. Outside of these slight chances in the
east on Thu, the combined Panhandles are looking dry through the
extended period.

Thu, the combined Panhandles are expected to start out with some
decent Tds in the upper 40s to lower 60s. However, a surface
trough will develop to the west and quickly moved into the
combined Panhandles tightening a dryline but also mixing it
eastward into western Oklahoma. Depending on the progression of
this dryline some thunderstorms may be possible in the far eastern
combined Panhandles. Models have been trending with the dryline
mixed further to the east limiting overall PoPs in the eastern
combined Panhandles. Have kept with the NBM PoPs that now only
give a 15 to 20 percent chance for Collingsworth and Wheeler
Counties in the southeastern TX Panhandle. Any storms that do
develop could have the potential to become severe. However, the
higher confidence in severe storms will be to the southeast from
Wichita Falls up through Tulsa, Little Rock through southern IL
into OH.

Friday, a weak cold front will suppress daytime highs a bit from
Thu by a few degrees. Highs on Thu are expected in the 90s across
the board, with highs on Fri being more in the mid to upper 80s
mostly. For Sat, areas off the Caprock are looking to rebound
into the mid to upper 90s. The weekend into Monday looks to be
warm and benign with no precipitation in sight.

36
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 06Z TAF period.
Some LLWS is expected to be present for KAMA through about 12Z. A
low level jet upwards of 40 to 50 kts is expected to be present at
around 1k to 1.5k feet out of the southwest. Skies are expected to
be mostly clear with surface winds maybe picking up to around 15
kts gusting 25 kts for all three terminals by 20Z to 22Z.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Amarillo TX                89  52  79  56 /   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  86  52  80  53 /   0  10   0  10
Boise City OK              82  46  76  50 /  10  10   0  10
Borger TX                  92  55  82  58 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              89  53  82  55 /   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  88  51  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               89  55  77  58 /   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 86  47  79  49 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  84  49  79  51 /   0  10   0  10
Hereford TX                89  51  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                89  54  79  55 /   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   89  53  79  56 /   0   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                92  56  78  56 /   0   0  10  10
Wellington TX              93  58  79  58 /   0   0  10  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36