-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
428
FXUS61 KBGM 232329
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
729 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet conditions will persist through Saturday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms return late Saturday but will exit the region by
Sunday. While Sunday will be dry, another system will move into the
region by Monday, resulting in a wet end to the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...

Quite the pleasant evening across the region with temperatures
in the 70s and much welcomed drier air. For this update,
adjusted overnight temperatures a degree or two down based on
ensemble guidance and some better clearing tonight. Fog is still
not expected tonight. Winds just above the surface are modeled
to be strong enough to keep the boundary layer well mixed,
pushing dewpoints into the low to mid 40s across the area. Lows
tonight are expected to bottom out in the low 50s, with a few
upper 40s in the normal cold spots.

255 PM Update...

High pressure will be in control this forecast period, giving us a
quiet end to the work week. Temperatures will fall into the 50s
tonight. While winds will be light and skies will be partly to
mostly clear, conditions will be to dry for fog to develop.
Tomorrow, sunny skies, temps in the 70s/low 80s, and dewpts in the
40s/50s will result in a pleasant day. Overnight temps will be
slightly cooler Friday night, falling into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM update...
Main concerns in the short term are centered around the
slightly above-average high temperatures this weekend and the
potential for scattered showers and a few storms late Saturday,
Sat night...with a break Sunday before additional precipitation
moves in late Sun night.

Low amplitude upper level ridge axis will be moving east across
the region early in the day Saturday, which will combine with a
wedge of deep dry air extending from Maine to n-central PA to
keep most of the region free of rain and clouds early in the
day. This ridge is expected to be fairly progressive as the next
upper short-wave rides east through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region. Deep moisture returns to the area and will allow
cloud cover to increase as well through the day Saturday. There
should still be enough warm air overall across the region and
plenty of sun through the first half of the day to push high
temperatures into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Surface dew
points in the lower 50s will make it feel not as humid though.

The most favorable time for showers and a few storms on Sat
will be between 3 PM and midnight. Severe weather is not
expected, but a few storms could produce small hail and gusty
winds. ML CAPE values around 400-700 J/kg and 30 kts of 0-6km
bulk shear could prove beneficial to get some deeper convection
developed by the late afternoon/early evening time frame.

The passing upper wave will exit the region to the east early
Sunday morning, but the overall pattern will remain relatively
cyclonic with some very weak instability building up in the
afternoon Sunday. A few scattered showers could pop up in the
afternoon, but at this time it doesn`t appear there will be
enough ingredients for thunderstorms into Sunday evening. The
day should not be a washout as temperatures climb once again
into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The surface humidity will be
slightly higher on Sunday with dew points in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

The next potential storm system in the central US will start to
move into the Great Lakes region Monday morning, which could
sweep a few showers into our area from the south, but better
chances exist later in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM update...

A slow-moving low pressure system over the central Great Lakes
will continue to wrap up and lift to the northeast into Canada
on Monday. This system will lift a warm front northward across
the Northeast US during the day Monday and a deep layer of
moist, isentropic lift will occur across the mid Atlantic
region.

Deep moist southwesterly flow will overtake the region on
Monday and instability will gradually build later in the day.
Rain showers will overspread the region and eventually be
combined with a few thunderstorms later in the afternoon and
evening. A deep dry layer will wrap in around the backside of
the system Monday night into Tuesday morning which will allow
the convection to come to an end...or at least taper off.

As the system moves out of the region...an area of cooler and
drier air will drop south from the northwest which will trigger
some daytime showers within a cooler air mass. Temperatures on
Tuesday will be noticeably cooler with highs only into the upper
60s and lower 70s. The cool northwest flow will persist into
Wednesday with highs even cooler...into the lower to mid 60s.
This period will continue to be defined by on and off rain
showers. The pattern looks to change back to a warmer one by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions through the period. Mostly clear skies tonight
with light and variable winds will trend towards WNW-NW around
10 knots by Friday afternoon, slightly stronger in north-central
NY, where a few gusts around 20 knots are possible at RME. No
fog expected overnight as dewpoints dropped well into the 40s
across most of the area this afternoon, and drier air will work
its way into NE PA through the evening.

Outlook...

Late Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly western areas Sat afternoon, then
spreading east overnight.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

Monday and Tuesday... Restrictions possible with scattered
showers and thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/JTC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BTL/MPH