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082
FXUS61 KBGM 210725
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
325 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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High pressure over the region today will slowly give way to a
cold frontal passage Wednesday and Thursday with a threat of
strong thunderstorms. This front will settle south of the
region giving us a short break Friday before pushing northward
again this weekend with additional chances of showers.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

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High pressure will move off the east coast gradually through
tonight. This will result in a continued warming trend through
Wednesday with southwesterly winds. Most locations should rise well
into the 80`s with a few locations close to 90 both today and on
Wednesday. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values should
not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60`s tonight.

The one wrinkle today looks to be a weak mid-level disturbance
moving across central New York this afternoon and evening. Lift and
moisture look fairly limited but enough to spark off isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

After a break in the action early Wednesday a frontal boundary still
looks to move in later Wednesday to break down the ridge. Enough
lift and moisture looks present for at least some scattered showers
with the frontal passage. Instability during the afternoons surface
CAPE is currently modeled to be around 1,500 J/KG. Model soundings
continue to show steep low and even somewhat steep mid level lapse
rates. Some mid-level dry air also looks to be present as well later
Wednesday. 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be on the weaker side
which works against the possibility of strong to severe storms at
only 20-30 knots.

Most modeling does indicate that will be enough shear though for
some thunderstorms to develop during the mid and late afternoon
hours and organize into a few clusters. These clusters of
thunderstorms have the potential for some gusty winds and hail as
well.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM update...

A cold front in Michigan Wednesday morning will move southeast
through CNY Wednesday night, then stalls in PA Thursday. The front
will have warm humid air to work with ahead of the front. With the
front getting here late in the day with increasing clouds,
temperatures will peak in the mid and upper 80s and around 90 in
Syracuse. Dewpoint temperatures will be in the low and mid 60s.
CAPE is still forecasted to be 1k or a little higher. The CAPE
is tall and skinny but better than Tuesday. Mid level lapse
rates are good. Shear is weak at 20 to 25 kts. Low level winds
remain light but the upper level jet approaches northern NY. SPC
has the NW half of CNY in a marginal chance of severe
thunderstorms. Wind is the most likely threat. Late Wednesday
into Wednesday night the convection moves through. Low
temperatures will be in the 60s.

Thursday the front stalls in northern PA as a weak surface low
moves east. Most of the showers and thunderstorms move southeast
out of the area late Thursday. Some of the thunderstorms could
be strong again. CAPE is lower but shear is higher. Highs range
mostly in the 70s but around 80 in the Wyoming Valley. Thursday
night with cold air advection and clearing skies lows will be in
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM update...

Friday into Saturday now looks dry as the front sags south. A
ridge of high pressure builds in from the northwest. Models are
trending drier for the weekend. Low chance pops for NEPA and
Sullivan County NY Saturday afternoon and night. A front moving
east from the upper Midwest looks slower and may wait until
Monday to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms here. This
front is ahead of an upper level trough.

Highs mostly in the 70s Friday and Saturday will fall into the
upper 60s to mid 70s Sunday and Monday. Lows Friday night will
be from the mid 40s to the lower 50. Lows rise into the 50s
Saturday night and Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. There is
a small chance for fog briefly at ELM from 06-13Z today.
However, at this time it does not appear ELM will reach
crossover temperature, so left fog out of the forecast for now.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Patchy early
morning valley fog possible. Also isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms around.

Friday and Saturday...VFR expected. Moderate to high confidence.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MPK/MWG