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946
FXUS65 KBOI 222036
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
236 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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Tonight through Friday night...
A low pressure system will exit the area on Friday, with
continuing low-end chances (20-40%) of light precipitation
overnight. Snow levels will fall to around 5000 feet, with some
mountain areas receiving up to a couple inches of snow, with
locally higher totals at mountain peaks. Overall, coverage will
decrease significantly into the late morning, with much drier
air infiltrating into the region amidst a chilly air mass.
Temperatures warm up at least a couple degrees on Thursday, but
still remain about 10 degrees below normal for the date. Winds
remain gusty through the Magic Valley on Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures continue to warm up on Friday and will become
closer to seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...
The next in a series of shortwave troughs moves through the
region Saturday. Model depictions of this feature still vary
considerably given the short lead-time, varying between a closed
low and a broad open wave. Regardless, precipitation chances
will increase Saturday morning and afternoon across most of the
area, but the potential for a significant rain event is low
given the progressive nature of this system. Currently, the 90th
percentile QPF amounts (or a 10% chance) range between 0.1" over
eastern Oregon to 0.4" over the Boise and West-Central
Mountains. The remainder of the period from Sunday into next
week looks to generally be dry. A significant warming trend will
be the primary weather impact as temperatures approach the first
90 degree reading of the year on Tuesday amidst an amplifying
western CONUS ridge. There is also a weak signal for
precipitation Tuesday as an offshore trough develops and imports
moisture northward, but probabilities for precipitation are
currently only 5-15%.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Numerous rain and snow showers. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms through 23/03Z. Periods of MVFR/IFR in precip.
Mountains obscured. Snow levels 4500-6000 ft MSL this afternoon, and
will fall to 3500-4500 by 23/12Z. Surface winds: generally W-NW 10-
25 kt with gusts 25-35 kt through this evening, then 5-20 kt with
gusts 20-30 kts. Strongest winds near KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10k
ft MSL: W-NW 20-35 kt, becoming NW-N 10-20 kt by 23/18Z.

KBOI...A 50% chance of showers and a 10% chance of thunderstorms 20Z-
22z. A 30% chance of showers 22Z-03Z. Winds: NW 15-25 kt with gusts
up to 25-35 kt, decreasing around sunset.
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&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening ORZ061.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM....JR
AVIATION.....SP