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299
FXUS64 KBRO 301848
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
148 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Mild, humid, and cloudy conditions are expected tonight across
Deep South Texas as persistent low level southerly to
southeasterly flow allows for a continuous influx of low level
moisture. Low temperatures will range from the upper 70s along the
Northern Ranchlands to the low 80s across the Rio Grande Valley.
Patchy fog may develop across portions of the region closer to
daybreak, but widespread dense fog is not expected. Most of the
region will remain rain free tonight, but we`ll have to keep an
eye on a low potential for decaying convection from the Hill
Country and Coastal Plains.

The influence of the mid/upper level ridge will remain through
Friday night, although we`ll have to keep an eye on embedded
disturbances traversing along the northeastern periphery of the
ridge. This will result in another day with slightly above normal
temperatures for late May, with highs ranging from the upper 80s
along the Lower Texas beaches to around 105 degrees across the Rio
Grande Plains. In combination with the humidity, "feels like"
temperatures will range from 109 degrees to around 114 degrees
during the afternoon hours. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed
for most of Deep South Texas, excluding the Lower Texas beaches.
However, this will also be dependent on any lingering cloud cover
from overnight convection to our north. Otherwise, southeast winds
around 10-15 MPH with gusts up to 25-30 MPH will persist through
the day.

Low rain/storm chances will exist Friday night, mainly along the
Northern Ranchlands as additional showers and thunderstorms
develop to our north and west. Stratus clouds will develop once
again late Friday night and result in mild overnight lows across
the region once again.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Messages:

-Hot and dry weather will prevail through the long term.
-Heat Advisories are likely next week.

Mid/Upper level high pressure will remain settled over northern
Mexico into the southern US through the long term. A few weak
perturbations will move overhead during the period, especially into
Saturday as a trough moves through Plains.

At the surface, high pressure will remain somewhat anchored over the
eastern US and low pressure developing each afternoon over the
Sierra Nevada will lead to a tightening pressure gradient, mainly
along the coast, and allow for moderate winds each afternoon. While,
we expect to stay mainly dry through the period, some models are
suggesting a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly Saturday evening
as a cold front moves through central Texas and moisture increases.
Chances remain extremely limited though, only topping out between 15
and 20 percent in the Rio Grade Plains.

Temperatures through the period will remain above seasonal averages
both for afternoon highs and overnight lows. Afternoon highs will be
in the upper 90s and low 100`s and heat indices will reach the
triple digits. For the first part of the period, heat indices may
hit the 111/112 degree mark briefly, just shy of Heat Advisory
criteria, but as we heat to mid week Heat Advisories will likely be
needed with Heat Indices peaking around 115 degrees in portions of
the Middle and Upper Valley into the northern Ranchlands.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Mostly VFR conditions across the region this afternoon, with only
BRO observing intermittent periods of MVFR ceilings as low clouds
stick around along the immediate coast. Another round of MVFR
ceilings will develop tonight, likely reaching BRO and HRL by 06Z,
and MFE by 07-08Z. Similar to previous mornings, VFR ceilings
should return by 14-16Z. It will remain on the breezy side with
southeast winds around 10-15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots
through most of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Tonight through Friday night...High pressure centered over the
Gulf of Mexico will prevail through the forecast period. An
enhanced pressure gradient along the Lower Texas coast will result
in moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas through
Friday night. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected
along the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters this evening. These
conditions will continue into Friday and Friday night, although a
Small Craft Advisory cannot be ruled out on Friday.

Saturday through next Thursday...Slightly adverse conditions
are expected each afternoon along the waters off the lower Texas
coast as an enhanced pressure gradient will lead to elevated winds
and seas. Small Craft Caution will be likely each day, though Small
Craft Advisories may be needed for the Laguna Madre Sunday through
Tuesday. Seas of generally 4-6 feet are expected with 6 to 7
second periods.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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BROWNSVILLE             82  97  83  95 /   0   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               80  99  81  97 /   0   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 81 101  82 100 /   0  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         80 103  81 101 /  10   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  89  83  87 /   0   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     82  94  82  93 /   0   0  10   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...22-Garcia