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397
FXUS61 KBUF 310534
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
134 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather will prevail through Saturday with day to day
warming as high pressure drifts across the region today making
its way slowly to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will
then move into the Ohio Valley late Saturday night and Sunday,
bringing a chance of a showers and a few thunderstorms,
especially across Western NY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Today will get off to a chilly start, with temperatures in the
mid to upper 30s across the Southern Tier where there may be
some frost in the sheltered valleys.

High pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley in the morning to
the eastern Great Lakes by late in the day. High clouds in the
morning east of Lake Ontario will thin, with abundant sunshine
areawide by afternoon. Temperatures will recover nicely after
the chilly start, with highs in the low 70s for lower elevations
and mid to upper 60s for high terrain.

High pressure centered over Western Pennsylvania will bring
another night with good radiational cooling. Warmer air mass in
place, so it`ll be a bit warmer but it still will be cool with
lows ranging from around 40 across the Southern Tier to the mid
to upper 40s elsewhere.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Mid-level ridge axis across the Northeast on Saturday. With
the mid-level ridge axis passing east, the surface high will
drift southeast toward the Atlantic coastline by Saturday night.
Overall this will support the dry conditions to persist through
the first half of the weekend.

Saturday night and Sunday, a shortwave will have weakened,
though its remnants will sweep across the area. As a result a
weak cold front will slide across the area from west to east
late Saturday night through Sunday supporting a chance of
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Despite the showers, Sunday
will not be a complete washout as there will be plenty of rain-
free time.

The next upper level ridge will then support high pressure to slide
over the region Sunday night through Monday night supporting the
return of dry weather.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next potent upper level trough will slide across the upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, before becoming
stagnant over the Great Lakes Thursday allowing multiple shortwaves
to round its base. While this pattern will create some uncertainty
in the forecast for the middle and later portions of next week, the
initial introduction of the trough will support a surface low over
northern Quebec to drop a surface cold front across the region
supporting a chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.

With the aforementioned shortwaves rounding the base of the trough,
another surface low will track northeast from the Central Plains to
the upper Midwest Wednesday and Thursday. Attendant surface warm and
cold fronts will then slide across the region during this time
introducing the chance for some showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will slowly build across the region providing
confidence in VFR flight conditions through tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms, particularly across Western NY.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for a shower across the
Southern Tier.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds will become west and increase to around 15 knots on Lake
Ontario today, producing a moderate chop on the lake during the
afternoon and evening. Light winds will return Saturday as high
pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NYZ012-019>021-
     085.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock