Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
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Issued by NWS Billings, MT
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --980 FXUS65 KBYZ 282112 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 312 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --Through Wednesday night... This evening through overnight, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected west of Big Timber. Southerly winds over the region will increase moisture overnight into Wednesday, raising PWATs to 0.75 to 1 inch. Late Wednesday morning, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase and spread east, with a 50-60% chance of precip and a 35-45% chance of thunderstorms west of Billings by midday. By Wednesday evening, the chance of precip increases to 70-90% across the forecast area. The chance of thunderstorms increases to 50-60% over Fallon and Carter counties, and a 40-50% chance over the rest of the area. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for Wednesday for Fallon and Carter counties, where CAPE values are expected to be highest. However, stronger shear is expected over Billings to Sheridan, so despite lower CAPE values, a severe thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out in this area. The main threat with any storms is high winds. Small hail is also possible, and any storms that develop a longer track may produce some large hail. Additionally, the WPC has issued a marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall across the forecast area due to the locally heavy rainfall possible with thunderstorms. Late Wednesday evening through overnight, showers and thunderstorms will decrease. Snow levels are expected to drop to around 6000 ft Wednesday night, so lingering showers will bring a 40% chance of at least 3 inches of snow over the Beartooth/Absarokas. Archer Thursday through Tuesday... In the wake of a cold front, Thursday will bring cooler temperatures, breezy west to northwest winds and mainly dry conditions to the area. Probabilities for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater are currently 30-50% from Big Timber north through Harlowton, and less than 15% for other locations. Unsettled weather can be expected into early next week as multiple shortwaves are progged to move through the region at times bringing chances for showers/thunderstorms. At this time, the day with the greatest precipitation potential is Sunday (20-60% chance, greatest along the western foothills/mountains). Ensembles point towards warmer and drier conditions heading into midweek as high pressure builds aloft. High temperatures are currently forecast to range from the upper 50s to 60s on Thursday, warming into the 70s for the weekend. Widespread 70s and 80s are forecast for by Tuesday. STP-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --Clouds will gradually move in from the west this evening into Wednesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible near KLVM late this evening through overnight. Late Wednesday morning, showers and thunderstorms will increase and spread east. East of KBIL, some storms may be severe. Conditions may decrease to MVFR/IFR under pockets of heavy rain. TS POTENTIAL START TIMES WEDNESDAY: KBIL: 20Z KLVM: 18Z KMLS: 22Z KSHR: 21Z-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 053/075 045/064 044/069 046/077 052/074 053/080 056/079 09/T 81/N 00/B 00/B 24/T 21/B 11/B LVM 050/067 037/061 038/069 042/075 048/071 049/076 051/077 2+/T 71/N 00/U 01/B 35/T 22/T 11/N HDN 052/078 045/065 042/071 044/079 050/076 051/082 055/082 08/T 81/B 01/B 00/B 23/W 21/B 11/B MLS 055/083 048/064 043/071 044/079 053/077 052/080 056/082 03/T 81/N 01/B 00/U 12/W 21/B 11/B 4BQ 055/085 048/064 042/071 045/080 053/077 053/082 056/082 04/T 80/U 11/U 00/U 12/W 21/B 11/B BHK 050/083 045/062 039/067 041/077 051/077 049/079 053/077 04/T 90/N 01/B 10/U 13/W 21/B 21/U SHR 051/080 042/062 040/070 042/079 048/075 049/081 052/081 06/T 82/W 11/U 00/U 13/T 21/B 11/B-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings