Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
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Issued by NWS Billings, MT
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --096 FXUS65 KBYZ 280322 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 922 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Tuesday night... Mainly dry conditions can be expected through most of the short term forecast as an upper ridge builds in from the west over the region. A weak wave crossing through northeast MT/western ND this afternoon and evening will bring an increase in cumulus from Miles City to Baker, but convection should remain north and east of the area. Temperatures will approach 80 degrees for many areas on Tuesday as the ridge axis moves overhead. The warmer temperatures will effectively start a more aggressive mountain snow melt pattern, that will continue into Wednesday. Look for rising water levels through Thursday. As the ridge axis continues to shift east Tuesday evening, southwest flow will advect moisture and energy into the region. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms (15-30%) are possible over the western mountains and foothills. STP Wednesday through Monday... The second half of the work week will remain unsettled, with the best chance of precipitation coming Wednesday. Look for temperatures to cool slightly below normal Thursday and Friday (60s to 70F) before warming back above normal next weekend (normal is around 70F). Wednesday looks to be the wettest day of the extended period as a trough and associated cold front push through the region. Ahead of the front, temperatures will quickly warm into the 70s and 80s with the warmest conditions existing in southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. Atmospheric moisture content will also be on the rise Wednesday, priming the environment for precipitation, and thunderstorms. By Wednesday morning, chances of precipitation will already be increasing west of Billings (15-40% chance). By Wednesday afternoon and evening, chances of precipitation will peak and spread east (60-90% chance) as the cold front moves through. The environment Wednesday will also be favorable for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, especially in eastern Montana (east of Billings). With these thunderstorms, there is a marginal (2/5) risk for severe wind (58 mph or greater) and hail (1 inch or greater), again east of Billings. Heavy rain is also possible under the stronger storms. One thing to note, these storms look to initiate over the plains, not over the mountains. Therefore, we are not looking at a major rain on snow issue. Thursday and Friday will remain unsettled with cooler temperatures and generally low chances of precipitation (40 to less than a 15% chance). Thursday looks to also be a breezy day with 25 to 40 mph wind gusts common, strongest over the western foothills. The risk for stronger winds looks minimal over the west with NBM probabilities remaining 30-45% for 40 mph or greater winds. The overall pattern for Saturday into Monday remains uncertain but looks drier with only low chances of precipitation (mainly Sunday at this time). Additional note for those with interests on the waterways. Water rises from snowmelt will continue Wendesday into Thursday. Cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday will slow the melt and allow water levels to stabilize or decrease. Arends && .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure aloft will bring widespread VFR tonight and Tuesday. Beginning around 00z Tuesday evening, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the western foothills including near KLVM & KHWQ. JKL-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 046/080 053/077 046/064 043/068 045/073 050/079 055/082 00/U 08/T 83/W 11/B 10/B 11/B 11/B LVM 043/079 050/071 038/061 037/066 040/073 047/076 051/078 00/U 29/T 73/T 11/B 10/B 12/T 11/B HDN 044/081 051/079 046/065 043/070 043/076 048/081 052/084 00/U 06/T 82/W 11/B 10/B 11/B 11/B MLS 044/078 055/083 048/064 043/070 045/076 051/082 055/084 00/U 03/T 71/B 11/B 10/U 11/B 11/B 4BQ 045/079 054/084 049/064 044/070 045/075 051/082 054/084 00/U 03/T 81/B 21/B 10/U 11/B 10/B BHK 041/075 049/080 046/063 041/070 043/074 048/080 052/081 00/U 03/T 81/N 11/B 10/U 01/B 11/B SHR 042/079 051/080 044/063 038/070 041/073 046/080 051/083 00/U 05/T 83/T 11/U 11/B 11/B 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings