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810
FXUS62 KCAE 191842
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
242 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Fair and dry weather expected early this week with warming
temperatures through the week under high pressure. A frontal
boundary will approach the region Thursday and is expected to
stall just north of the area resulting in chances of showers and
thunderstorms Friday into next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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An upper level low and associated weak area of low pressure at
the surface is located over eastern Georgia as of mid-
afternoon. Meanwhile, the backdoor cold front that moved through
the area earlier this morning continues to push south of the
area. Northeasterly winds are in place at the surface across the
area behind the front, with abundant moisture trapped beneath
an inversion that extends up to around 2500 ft. This has
resulted in overcast skies.

Other than some lingering showers across far southern Burke
County, the potential for any additional showers or
thunderstorms has come to an end across the area as drier/more
stable air advects into the region. The extensive cloud cover
will likely persist into late this evening, before clouds begin
to scatter out some into the overnight hours. Temperatures
tonight should be near normal, with lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Fair and dry weather expected early this week as the upper
trough continues to shift further offshore and upper ridging
builds eastward from the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the east
coast. Surface high pressure will be centered from New England
down the east coast on Monday before shifting slightly further
east on Tuesday as a strong low pressure system develops over
the Central Plains lifting into the upper Midwest.

Atmospheric moisture will be limited with PWATs around 70-80
percent of normal. This should yield nice weather with near to
slightly warmer than normal temperatures with highs on Monday in
the lower to mid 80s and in the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday
with plenty of sunshine each day. Overnight lows expected to be
near normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Humidity should be a
bit lower as well with deep mixing and dewpoints falling into
the 50s each afternoon.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Little change in the overall forecast thinking for the extended
forecast period. The upper ridge axis should shift east of the
forecast area Wednesday as a positively tilted upper trough
moves into the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure will also
shift offshore allowing for more southerly flow across the
region. This will allow PWATs to slowly increase with a stronger
increase on Thursday with ensembles showing PWATs rising to
around 110-120 percent of normal. Forecast soundings indicate a
prominent inversion around 850mb-700mb both Wednesday and
Thursday and without any upper forcing, this should prevent much
convection across the forecast area.

Friday through the weekend the weather becomes a bit more
unsettled as the upper ridge flattens, giving way to more
westerly 500mb flow and a series of shortwaves move into the
region and a frontal boundary stalls near the region. 60-70
percent of ensemble members show probabilities of CAPE greater
than 500 J/kg each day. It is too far out to have confidence in
timing of shortwaves or assess a true severe threat, but the
threat of thunderstorms seems high with active weather expected
into the weekend. Temperatures will show a continued warming
trend on Wednesday into Thursday under the influence of the
upper ridging with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s
with lows also trending warmer in the mid to upper 60s.
Increased cloud cover and potential precipitation leads to more
uncertainty and higher spreads in the temperature guidance for
the weekend but fairly confident temperatures should remain
above normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Ceiling restrictions will likely persist into the late
afternoon/early evening hours, with VFR for the remainder of the
forecast period.

Abundant moisture, within a northeasterly low level flow,
remains trapped beneath an inversion. This has resulted in MVFR
ceilings at all terminals this afternoon. The inversion will
begin to lift late this afternoon, causing ceilings to rise to
VFR levels around 20Z at the Augusta area terminals and 23Z at
the Orangeburg and Columbia area terminals. Then, drier air will
begin working its way into the area, scattering out any ceilings
by late evening at all terminals. VFR ceilings could return
to the area during the morning on Monday.

Winds will remain from the northeast at 5-10 kt through the
remainder of the afternoon, before become light northeast or
variable this evening and overnight. Winds will increase once
again to 5-10 kt from the northeast Monday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... No significant flight restrictions
are currently anticipated Monday through Wednesday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$