Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
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Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --053 FXUS66 KEKA 281157 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 457 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --An upper level trough will move through the Pacific Northwest bringing substantial moisture and cooler temperatures to Northwest California today and tomorrow. This trough is forecasted to migrate out of the area by Wednesday evening allowing a ridge to build back. This ridge should bring us warmer temperatures and a first look at true summer-like conditions, especially for Friday when temperatures are expected to peak.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --Stratus has made its return to our coastline from the Oregon boarder down to Cape Mendocino and reaching up the Eel River up to the Trinity/Humboldt/Mendocino tri-county area. An upper level trough entering our region has the possibility to allow just enough vorticity for this cloud layer to give us some sprinkles of drizzle, yet no substantial precipitation accumulation is expected , maxing out at a hundred of an inch near the Ferndale, Fortuna, and up to Rio Del within the Eel River Basin. Our morning`s pattern is forecasted to repeat again tomorrow morning as well. The clouds along the coast are expected to persist at least somewhat throughout the day keeping temperatures mild. Whereas inland, a layer of high elevation clouds will prohibit solar heating making temperatures peak at the high 70s with breezy northwest winds in the valleys. A ridging pattern will develop by mid week and gradually warm the region through the end of the week, particularly the interior. For the interior, Thursday morning is showing some breezy easterly winds, especially in eastern Lake and Mendocino counties. Coastal afternoon wind gusts are possible as well, with probabilities for wind gusts above 25 mph at 60 and 50 percent along most of the coast for Thursday and Friday, respectively. After this brief taste of summer, model ensemble members show agreement of the ridge slowly weakening throughout the weekend possibly bringing conditions back to normal. DS-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --.An upper level trough is moving into the Pacific Northwest. This has started to lift the marine layer and ceilings have lifted to around 1000 feet on the north coast. A few high clouds have started to move across the area as well. The stratus is expected to be continue to lift through the day with conditions becoming VFR or near VFR in the afternoon. Tonight the HREF shows a return of stratus and low clouds. Probabilities of ceilings below 1000 feet increases to 50 percent by around 04Z. These elevated probabilities persist through nearly sunrise when they rapidly drop Wednesday morning. Increased mixing will likely clear skies on Wednesday but bring gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. MKK-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --An upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest will keep winds lighter through tonight. Winds will be slightly stronger south of Cape Mendocino and have extended the small craft advisory remains in effect there. Some wind driven waves persist in the southern waters of 3 to 6 feet. In addition there is a wave 5 feet at 9 seconds and a new swell around 2 feet at 13 seconds. These are expected to combine by this afternoon. Wednesday winds are expected to pick up quickly through the day. Gale force gusts are expected to start in the mid afternoon in the southern waters and expand to the northern outer waters. So have gone ahead and issued a gale watch to highlight this. For now have the gale watch going through Thursday evening. This may need to be extended into Friday but it looks like winds will diminish be Saturday. Another question is the northern inner waters. For now have held off on issuing a gale watch, one will likely be needed Thursday afternoon. The waves will be dominated by the steep wind driven seas and these are expected to peak around 12 to 14 feet on Friday. MKK-- End Changed Discussion --&& .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ455- 475. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening for PZZ455-475. Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening for PZZ470.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png