Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
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Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --385 FXUS66 KEKA 292153 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 253 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A warming trend will continue through this week with the hottest inland valleys reaching the upper 90s by late this week. A regular cycle of stratus and gusty afternoon onshore flow will persist for the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --A ridge in the Northeast Pacific will continue to build into the region through the end of the week. This will bring hot temperatures back to the interior with NBM even showing a 25% chance of 95 degree highs in the very hottest valleys of Trinity County by Friday. Plenty of dry air has been ushered in with the building ridge which will continue to dry interior fuels through the weekend. Building high pressure will also support a usual cycle of nighttime marine stratus with gusty north winds pushing on shore and helping to mix out clouds each afternoon. Onshore winds will most likely be strongest this afternoon and evening with gusts upwards of around 35-40 mph around the coastal headlands in Del Norte and Northern Humboldt. Wind gusts on other parts of the coast are forecasted to be between 20-30 mph. This flow will flip throughout the night and be more offshore from the northeast on Thursday morning before gusting onshore again in the afternoon. Ensemble clusters indicate that a troughing pattern may set up late in the weekend and into next week. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) indicates a decently high signal for more precipitation than average from Sunday and into Monday. This likely will have minimal impacts on the region with the National Blend of Models (NBM) indicating a 50 to 60 percent chance of wetting rain (>0.1 inches) for Del Norte County and a 20 to 40 percent chance in northern Humboldt County. However, details will become more clear as the models update and we get closer to the event.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions (only high thin cirrus) prevailed over all the TAF sites and across the region today. There were pockets of MVFR stratus along the Humboldt Coast during the wee hours of the morning. High pressure is starting to build over the coastal areas even as a thermal trough intensifies overland...and then shift offshore. Interaction between high and low pressures will be the catalyst for daytime gusty northerlies through Thursday. Tonight winds will be slow to diminish, but will eventually die down around midnight. Most model data is in agreement with keeping skies mainly clear overnight/morning, although a few isolated pockets of fog could occur in an interior valley or near the coast...but that expectation is very low. /TA-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --An offshore ridge building into the region will tighten the inland thermal trough gradient and continue to enhance offshore winds this afternoon into Thursday. Gale conditions observed in the southern inner waters expected to build on already enhanced conditions in the southern waters before expanding north early Thursday. Rapid wind wave response expected Thursday afternoon into Friday, with wave heights forecasted to reach 13 feet at 10 seconds in the outer waters by early Friday. Model guidance anticipates a weak trough pattern developing this weekend, effectively inhibiting the expansion fans downwind of Port Orford and Cape Mendocino. Seas expected to quickly follow suit as a nearshore westerly swell traverses the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ470. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ475. Gale Warning until 10 PM PDT Friday for PZZ475.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png