Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
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Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --644 FXUS66 KEKA 251156 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 456 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Unseasonably cool temperatures continue today across the interior. Coastal clouds are expected to clear back to the coast this afternoon. Warming temperatures are expected across the interior Sunday and Monday while the coast continues to see cool temperatures and periods of fog and low clouds. Some cooling is expected Tuesday through Thursday before another warming trend starts Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --An upper level trough over the west coast is bringing below normal temperatures and widespread coastal clouds to the area this morning. The cold front has moved past Crescent City and this has allowed clouds to lift. It has also increased northerly winds to around 10 KT. Widespread stratus is in place across much of the area aside from Lake county. This stratus is expected to take time clearing out today, but mostly clear skies are expected by early afternoon. Highs are only expected to be in the 70s across the interior and around 60 at the coast. For next week generally dry conditions are expected with just some fluctuations in high temperatures and possibly stratus. Tonight and Sunday high pressure starts to build in. Offshore flow looks too weak to keep skies clear. Temperatures aloft are warming and this will strengthen the inversion reducing the potential for mixing. Inland this will allow temperatures to warm to around 80. Coastal clouds will likely clear back to the coast. Monday high pressure continues to strengthen and highs warm into the mid 80s. Tuesday morning another trough approaches the Pacific Northwest bringing highs in the 70s again. This will likely increase the marine clouds and may bring some drizzle to the coast. Cooler temperatures are expected on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Thursday through Saturday confidence is growing that high pressure will strengthen bringing above normal temperatures. Friday there is the potential to exceed 90 degrees in some of the warmer valleys. For example there is a 45 percent chance in Ukiah and a 20 percent Lakeport of exceeding 90 degrees. MKK-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --12Z TAF ACV/CEC...Subsidence behind a passing trough is aiding in improvement from the periods of fog and persistent drizzle observed overnight, and ceilings will continue to rise. The marine layer is quite deep, and protruding well inland, but conditions are quickly improving behind the trough. Ceilings will lower back to IFR levels this evening, with continuation to LIFR probable (30%). Though the probability for fog over the terminals is low (10 to 15%) into Sunday morning, the ample surface moisture deposited from the rather aggressive drizzle will be enough for more poorly modeled fog and LIFR ceilings. UKI....Looking at the nighttime satellite, the deepened marine layer is pushing close to the valley on the western slopes. Stratus has reached the northern inland area Ells Field airport in Willits, but has not breached the UKI valley yet. There continue to be low chances (15%) for a MVFR ceiling to make it over the terrain early this morning. Otherwise, VFR will prevail at this terminal. UKI....Looking at the nighttime satellite, the deepened marine layer is pushing close to the valley on the western slopes. Stratus has reached the northern inland area Ells Field airport in Willits, but has not breached the UKI valley yet. There continue to be low chances (15%) for a MVFR ceiling to make it over the terrain early this morning. Otherwise, VFR will prevail at this terminal.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .Marine...-- Changed Discussion --Northerlies have increased over the waters this morning behind a passing trough. Winds will again become more focused in the southern zones where 20 to 25 kt winds will develop this afternoon. Short period seas will locally develop and propagate in from the north. The winds and short period seas of 6 to 8 feet warranted Small Craft Advisory coverage in the southern, as well as portions of the northern zones. The Advisory in the Southern Outer waters has been extended through Sunday for lingering winds and seas. A 3 to 5 ft NW swell at 8 seconds will also enter the waters through the weekend. A mid period NW swell at around 5 ft at 13 seconds from a late season Pacific trough of low pressure will also arrive on Tuesday. The northerly winds will remain stronger, up to 25 kts in the southern zones into early next week, with lighter northerlies elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png