-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
096
FXUS64 KEPZ 252353
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
553 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Windy, warm, and dry conditions expected through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening, with critical to extreme fire weather
conditions in place. Any outdoor burning is highly discouraged
through the rest of today. Winds relax for Sunday onward, while
temperatures climb back above the seasonal average. The forecast
remains dry through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with gusty
winds this afternoon and evening.

Upper level trough will continue to swing across the Intermountain
West and central/northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. With
most of the region at the base of this trough, the strongest
corridor of upper level winds will be across NM for the remainder of
the afternoon and evening. Corresponding lee-side surface low
development will take place with a tightly packed surface pressure
gradient across the local area. This in combination with deep mixing
will promote gusty winds throughout the day. Wind gusts for much of
the lowlands will top out in the 40 to 50 mph range, with the
Sacramento Mountains gusting up to 55 to 60 mph. With the very dry
sensible weather conditions in place, extremely critical fire
weather conditions will remain through the evening hours today.
These winds, coupled with the extremely dry conditions are
concerning given the ongoing Blue 2 Wildfire NW of Ruidoso. In
addition, any new starts will pose the threat of spreading rapidly.
Today is one of those days where any outdoor burning is not
advised and would be a bad idea. Also given, the very dry
conditions and current drought status along the International
Border, dust source regions will likely respond with blowing dust
reducing visibility.

After today our weather becomes relatively quiet with upper level
ridge building in. The ridge axis initially sets-up over us, but
gradually moves east Wednesday into Thursday. This will keep us bone
dry with warming temperatures and afternoon breezes.
Earlier model runs had moisture slipping into Hudspeth and eastern
Otero Counties Tuesday and Wednesday with NBM still holding onto
some ghost chances for showers. Each successive model run,
especially from the GFS and Euro, casts further and further doubt
this will occur. As the ridge slides east into the Plains, deep SW
flow will allow temperatures to climb well into the 90s with El Paso
making a run at its first 100. Latest run of the NBM has El Paso
hitting 100 on Tuesday. Afterwards, height falls and a minor trough
passage look to bring highs back down a few degrees, but still well
into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with mainly SKC. The winds will be generally from the
west and breezy to windy (15 to 25 kts) with gust up to 40 kts
through at least 03Z. The winds will become light to breezy 5 to
15 kts while continuing out from the west thereafter. They will
pick back up again around 16Z and continue through 00Z Monday.
There will be areas of BLDU through 01Z especially at KELP runway.
This could reduce the VSBY to around 5SM. Otherwise, there will
be no reduction in the VSBY across the rest of the runways.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...

CRITICAL to EXTREME fire weather conditions will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours across most of the
area. Only the highest terrain of the Gila will continue to see near-
CRITICAL fire weather conditions due to lower ERCs and relatively
lighter winds. The lower elevations and river valleys of the Gila,
along with most of the Black Range will see CRITICAL fire weather
conditions. The main focus and concern will be across the NM/TX
desert lowlands and the Sacramento Mtns/Lincoln National Forest,
where RFTI values of 7-8 will be common through the afternoon. Winds
currently gusty, will remain gusty through the evening and overnight
hours, gusting to 40-50 across the lowlands and 50 to 60 over
NMZ113. Winds will predominately be southwest through the afternoon
and evening, with slight turning to the west after sunset. Very dry
air remains locked in with Min RH values in the single digits and
low teens. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 10PM this
evening.

For the rest of the period, we will remain very dry with poor
overnight recoveries and afternoon min RHs dropping well into the
single digits and low teens. Winds will not be as strong, however,
topping out 10 to 15 MPH each afternoon. No critical fire conditions
are expected at this time although the higher elevations of Hudspeth
County will be close or slightly over for Sunday.

Afternoon vent rates will range very good to excellent each
afternoon, with excellent forecast area-wide this afternoon. Smoke
venting will generally be to the east or east-northeast though some
variance to the direction is possible mainly at night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  65  94  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            58  87  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               57  91  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               53  88  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               41  65  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    56  89  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              49  80  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   51  89  53  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                51  87  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       60  90  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                56  92  52  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             57  94  58 100 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               58  84  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   59  93  59  98 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             55  89  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           63  90  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            51  89  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    51  91  53  95 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 57  90  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                55  88  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  78  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                45  76  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 45  75  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  46  81  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                51  87  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                49  89  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             44  81  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   46  84  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    49  87  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               49  82  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  49  84  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   50  89  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  89  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           51  89  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               51  84  55  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira