-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
946
FXUS64 KEPZ 230529
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1129 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Dry west/southwest flow aloft will continue our very dry and warm
pattern. Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend
and first part of next week, along with very low humidity. This
will result in every day seeing at least elevated fire danger,
with Thursday and Saturday likely becoming critical.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Look at current weather shows dry westerly flow over the CWA with
main upper low now over the Pac NW. At the surfaced back door cool
front has pushed west as far the Sacramento Mtns, but has likely
seen it`s farthest west intrusion. Models show back door front
retreating quite a bit eastward overnight otnight. The upper low
will traverse east across the central/northern Rockies Thursday,
with just the tail end of upper trough sweeping across our area.
Thus with slight uptick in winds, elevated fire conditions will
become low-end critical. So will issue RFW for Thursday with these
expected conditions.

Real no improvement seen beyond Thursday. Breezy winds expected
each afternoon through Monday with winds Saturday becoming windy
and likely another need for Red Flag warnings for Saturday.
Temperatures will remain above normal, and GFS shows h85 temps
next Tuesday/Wednesday that would support some triple digit
lowland high temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions through the period at all terminals. Continued
very dry conditions. That means skies generally SKC. Wind
slackening overnight to AOB 7-11 knots. Tomorrow aft 18Z expect
winds to be from 240-260 and increasing to 14-19 knots with gusts
22-30 knots. Some minor BLDU with hazy skies, but no significant
vsby reductions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Continued warm and very dry for the forseeable future. Persistent
dry southwest flow aloft is the main culprit, and these conditions
will combine to produce elevated fire conditions through this
weekend and into next week. Thursday and Saturday will see the
strongest winds of the period, and fire conditions will likely
become critical with the resultant Red Flag Warnings. Overnight RH
recovery will also continue to be very poor.

Min RHs: Lowlands 4-10% through Monday. Mountains 7-15% through
Monday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  63  93  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            58  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               56  91  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               54  88  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               41  65  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    55  89  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              47  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   50  90  50  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                51  88  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       60  90  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                54  92  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             58  95  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               55  85  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   58  94  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             55  89  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           63  89  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            50  88  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    51  91  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 57  90  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                53  88  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  46  78  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                44  76  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 42  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  43  80  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                50  86  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                47  88  46  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             43  80  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   44  83  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    43  87  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               39  82  40  83 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  48  83  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   50  88  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  53  88  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           50  88  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  82  50  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt