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679
FXUS64 KEPZ 251814
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1214 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Warm, dry, and windy conditions are expected today with critical
to extremely critical fire conditions. Outdoor burning is highly
discouraged. Winds relax for Sunday onward while temperatures will
climb. The forecast is dry through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

A sharp UL s/w is moving onshore as of 230AM with a corresponding
jet max centered over the Northern Baja Peninsula. This s/w is
expected to pivot eastward throughout the day, becoming slightly
negatively titled as it does so. This shift will bring the main
jet over NM extending into TX and OK by afternoon with a ~990 mb
surface cyclone deepening over SW CO and into SE KS. A Pacific
front will also pass west to east during the late afternoon and
early evening. For our friends out east, this will mean another
rough day of severe weather. For us, it means a windy day, which
will combine with very dry air and dry fuels to create critical
to extreme fire concerns. For much of the lowlands, wind gusts
look to top out 40 to 50 MPH, but the Sacramento Mountains look to
see the highest winds with gusts up to 55 MPH, slightly higher as
you go into Lincoln County where CWA ABQ has a high wind warning.
These wind speeds are particularly concerning given the ongoing
Blue Fire, and any new starts will spread rapidly. Please, PLEASE
do not do any outdoor burning today. It is a bad idea. Your
actions could affect your neighbors` lives and livelihoods.
Additionally, given the winds and unstable low-levels, dust
sources will likely activate though it`s not clear how poor
visibility will be.

After today our weather becomes quieter as ridging begins to
influence our weather. The ridge axis initially sets-up over us,
but gradually slips east Wednesday into Thursday. This will keep
us bone dry with warming temperatures and afternoon breezes.
Earlier model runs had moisture slipping into Hudspeth and eastern
Otero Counties Tuesday and Wednesday with NBM still holding onto
some ghost chances for showers. Each successive model run,
especially from the GFS and Euro, casts further and further doubt
this will occur. As the ridge slides east into the Plains, deep SW
flow will allow temperatures to climb well into the 90s with El
Paso making a run at its first 100. Latest run of the NBM has El
Paso hitting 100 on Tuesday. Afterwards, height falls and a minor
trough passage look to bring highs back down a few degrees, but
still well into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions expected with a slight risk for flight category
reductions from BLDU. Winds will be the main story today,
increasing to 20 to 30 knots between 15 and 18z with gusts as
high as 40 knots possible. Winds will begin to decrease after
sunset. Areas of BLDU are likely with today`s winds, but
confidence it will reduce VIS significantly is low. No VIS
reductions were added to TAFs at this time. Otherwise, skies will
mainly be SKC to FEW250.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...

As the headline says, today will feature critical to extreme fire
conditions for almost the entire area. Only the Gila will see
winds a bit lighter along with lower ERCs. The lower-elevations,
including Silver City, and the Black Range will see more critical
conditions with current RFTIs projected to be around 6-8. Across
the New Mexico lowlands into Texas, RFTIs of 7-8 will be common
thanks to winds of 20 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH, winds
will be a bit higher across the higher elevations of Hudspeth
County. Of particular concern is NM 113, the Sacramento and
Capitan Mountains, where winds may gust as high as 60 MPH,
especially across the northern portions of the chain into Lincoln
County. CWA ABQ has issued a high wind warning for that area while
a wind advisory is in place for the rest of the chain. RFTI is
expected to reach 9 in portions of the zone with 8 covering the
bulk of the remainder. A Red Flag Warning is in effect with
added, strong wording to NM113. Wind direction today will be
southwest to west.

For the rest of the period, we will remain very dry with poor
overnight recoveries and afternoon min RHs dropping well into the
single digits. Winds will not be as strong, however, topping out
10 to 15 MPH each afternoon. No critical fire conditions are
expected at this time although the higher elevations of Hudspeth
County will be close or slightly over for Sunday.

Afternoon vent rates will range very good to excellent each
afternoon, with excellent forecast area-wide this afternoon.
Smoke venting will generally be to the east or east-northeast
though some variance to the direction is possible mainly at night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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El Paso                  95  65  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            91  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               91  57  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               88  53  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               64  41  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    87  56  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              77  49  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   89  51  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                85  51  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       91  60  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                93  56  92  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             98  57  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               85  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   95  59  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             90  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           90  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            88  51  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    90  51  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 90  57  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                88  55  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  77  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                75  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 75  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  77  46  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                83  51  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                86  49  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             78  44  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   82  46  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    84  49  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  49  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  81  49  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   87  50  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  87  51  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           87  51  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               82  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers