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331
FXUS63 KFSD 240804
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
304 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Strong to severe storms will exit northwest IA and southwest
  MN early this morning.

- Windy conditions with northwesterly winds gusting to 30-40
  mph today.

- Periodic showers and thunderstorms for Memorial Day weekend.
  While we are not currently expecting strong storms, lightning
  is still possible. When thunder roars, go indoors!
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

There could be a few lingering showers east of Interstate 29 through
mid morning on Friday, before the surface trough slides into the
eastern portions of MN and IA by mid day. With cold air advection
behind the exiting wave and a fairly tight surface pressure gradient
persisting, it will be a breezy day with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. It
will be a much cooler day as 850 mb temperatures fall into the teens
C, and highs will be in the 60s. With clearing skies and dying winds
on Friday night, lows will fall into the 40s.

For the holiday weekend leading into Memorial Day, look for warming
temperatures - though remaining just below normal for this time of
year. This will play out to highs for Saturday-Monday generally in
the lower 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Unfortunately
the active weather pattern continues, as yet another shortwave and
associated surface low eject into the Central Plains on Saturday
night into Sunday - this to be followed by another shortwave on
Monday. This will bring a chance of periodic showers and
thunderstorms through the period. Instability and/or shear look to
be on the lower side during this time frame, so severe chances are
low. Rainfall amounts do not look especially significant, averaging
around a quarter of an inch for any 24 hour period.

Models are then in decent agreement on an upper level ridge building
across the region for Tuesday through Thursday of next week. This
will finally bring a drier period, along with a gradual warming
trend, as highs warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Toward the end
of the period, the ridge starts to flatten out, bringing another
chance of precipitation by Thursday.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will push eastward overnight. There
will be a threat for damaging winds, perhaps in excess of 60kt,
as storms evolve into a line which is projected to move through
the lower Missouri River Valley and portions of northwest Iowa
through 09Z. In addition to the stronger winds, MVFR-IFR
ceilings will be possible in heavier thunderstorms. Storms move
eastward after 10Z, with winds transitioning to west then
northwesterly behind a frontal boundary moving across the area.
By Friday morning, northwesterly winds will gust 30 to 40 kts
through Friday mid evening, then become light by late evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM