-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
929
FXUS64 KFWD 311143
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
643 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
Update:

The early-morning activity largely panned out as discussed below,
with the leading edge of a MCS/QLCS moving out of our forecast
area at this time. A weak wake low has formed on the back edge
of the stratiform precip region, resulting in 35-45 mph wind gusts
across much of North Texas. This should continue for the next few
hours.

Elsewhere, convective redevelopment is taking place along another
remnant cold pool over the Big Country and Western Central Texas.
The cold pool is oriented parallel to the mean flow, resulting in
an increased threat of training storms and flooding with this
activity. Due to this, we have expanded the Flood Watch southwest
to our CWA border. We have also trimmed most of North Texas out of
the Flood Watch since today`s heavy rain should largely stay
south of I-20. The severe threat is low with the morning activity,
but an isolated severe storm capable of producing damaging wind
gusts or marginally severe hail may still occur. The back end of
this cluster could eventually merge into a more organized system
and move through Central Texas this afternoon, bringing another
threat of strong to severe storms to the region. Our confidence of
this is low, but still high enough to warrant mention of it.
Outside of this area, isolated storms remain possible across all
of North Texas later today along any weak boundaries that reside
during peak heating.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tomorrow/

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across
North and Central Texas in the pre-dawn hours, with additional
rain and storm chances later in the day and overnight. The overall
trend early this morning is that there is much more instability
across the Southern Big Country and Western Central Texas, with
weakening instability further east. Using this as the baseline,
there is currently a weakening line of showers/storms moving into
East Texas, largely producing brief heavy rain and wind gusts to
around 25 mph. The main impact from this will be across Central
Texas, where some backbuilding is taking place on the upshear
flank of the cold pool that could create localized flash flooding.
Another complex of storms is moving into Western North and Central
Texas that has become better organized in the past hour or two
west of our forecast area. We will approach this complex in two
parts, the northern and southern, using I-20 as a decent
delineating line between the two. The northern part of the line
has remained sub-severe, and although an isolated severe storm
can`t be ruled out...it should largely remain sub-severe as it
moves east across North Texas early this morning. Winds could gust
as high as around 40 mph and may contain small hail. The line is
producing heavy rain and may lead to short-lived minor or flash
flooding.

Our main concern early this morning will be the southern part of
the complex of storms as it moves across the southwest part of our
forecast area. The cold pool/stable air from earlier storms
extends from about Eastland->Waco. The air to the southwest of
this line remains largely undisturbed, and therefore has a higher
severe potential. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts,
with a lower threat of large hail. Expect the line to move ESE
through the pre-dawn hours and move southeast of our area after
sunrise. This line would reinvigorate flooding issues across parts
of Central Texas that receive training storms where the initial,
weakening, cluster of storms is ongoing.

After the aforementioned complexes move east, forecast confidence
takes a dive. The region will remain under broad mid-level ascent
and northwest flow aloft today, keeping the door open for more
storms today. The first of these potential clusters of storms is
expected to develop over West Texas along a cold pool stalled near
Lubbock. The CAM guidance is all over the place, but largely has
storms developing along this boundary sometime near sunrise. After
the storms develop, they should congeal into a line of storms and
move ESE, moving across the southwestern half of our forecast are
in the mid-morning to early-afternoon. The severe threat will
depend on how much time passes between the early-morning storms
and this line. More time would result in a higher severe threat.
Additional isolated to scattered storms may develop across North
Texas in the afternoon that would have a severe threat as well.
The storms would need a surface boundary to develop along and
that is hard to pinpoint, even at this time.

Subtle mid-level ridging looks to build into the region tonight,
helping lower precip chances to around 20% areawide. We`ll have to
keep an eye on any weakening MCSs that develop over West Texas in
the afternoon/evening, but the overall threat for strong to severe
storms and flooding will be much lower Friday night than it has
been for much of the week.

Bonnette
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&&

.LONG TERM... 
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/Issued 302 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
Update:

The overnight suite of forecast data did not change significantly
from what is discussed below, therefore no major changes have
been made to the forecast at this time.

With that being said, the long-range ensemble mean guidance does
have a better signal of northwest flow aloft late next week into
next weekend. Depending on how far east the upper ridge over the
Western CONUS builds and how deep the Eastern CONUS trough digs,
there is a 30% chance an unsettled weather pattern returns, or
even continues, into next weekend.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Through The Upcoming Week/

An unsettled pattern will continue through the upcoming weekend,
with convective activity mainly concentrated along two regions
across our area. The first of which will be along our western
counties as dryline convection continues to propagate to the east
overnight, with the second being along the Red River and across
North Texas through the morning hours on both Saturday and Sunday.

Additional convection will push through portions of the region
once again through the start of next week as the pattern will
remain largely unchanged. With several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms moving through overnight into the morning hours each
day, strong to severe weather will be possible. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats, with a very low chance
for tornadoes. Of course, these specific hazards will depend on a
variety of factors. Placement of surface boundaries and outflow
boundary interactions will largely influence the extent and
coverage of any severe weather. These features will be closely
monitored each day as real-time analysis and high-res model
guidance allow us to get a much better handle on potential hazards
through the upcoming days. Conversely, it is also possible that
mesoscale interactions lessen the severe threat - such as is the
case with outflow dominant, multi-cell thunderstorms that lack a
substantially strong cold pool. It`s difficult to nail these
specific mesoscale phenomena several days out, which only adds to
the emphasis to continue to remain weather aware through the next
several days as details can be further refined and the forecast
gains additional value. Furthermore, the threat for additional
flooding will remain in place through the start of next week as
well as heavy rainfall will be possible at times. It won`t take
much to cause issues, so stay on your feet for additional flooding.

A potential pattern shift may be on the horizon, which would
lessen our chances for showers and thunderstorms considerably.
This would also lead to an increase in afternoon highs, with
temperatures gradually climbing through the end of next week. This
is the direct result of the mid level ridge currently located
across our west strengthening and pushing more into the
Central/Southern Plains. This will effectively cut off the
unsettled pattern that we`ve been in as of late, or at least slow
it down considerably. Our attention will begin to turn toward the
potential heat, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and
dewpoints lingering in the low to mid 70s. This could result in
heat indices reaching between 100 to 105 through the end of the
week, which may begin to cause issues related to heat illness.

Reeves
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&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

The early-morning convective activity is moving east of the D10
terminals, but bringing short-lived 30-35 kt wind gusts out of
the SE. These gusts should subside in the next 1-2 hours. To put
it lightly...winds will be a challenge and issue for traffic
managers today. The winds will likely undergo several swaps from N
to S flow, if there is any glimmer of hope...the wind speeds may
be light enough to provide flow flexibility if we`re lucky.
Otherwise, area observations will have to be closely watched for
short-notice flow changes.

A cluster of storms is developing W/SW of D10 that is moving
southeast toward the ACT terminal. We have maintained -RA VCTS for
the next few hours, but may need to add a TS TEMPO if we gain
confidence of this cluster making it to the ACT terminal.

Bonnette
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  69  86  73  88 /  30  20  20  20  30
Waco                82  70  85  73  87 /  60  10  40  10  30
Paris               79  65  85  69  85 /  80  30  30  20  30
Denton              82  65  86  70  87 /  20  20  20  20  30
McKinney            81  67  85  71  87 /  50  20  30  20  30
Dallas              82  69  87  73  89 /  40  20  30  20  30
Terrell             81  68  85  72  87 /  70  20  30  20  30
Corsicana           82  70  86  74  89 /  80  20  40  10  30
Temple              82  70  85  73  89 /  70  20  40  10  30
Mineral Wells       82  67  86  71  87 /  40  20  20  20  20
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ115-122-123-129>132-135-
141>148-156>162-174-175.
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&&

$$