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434
FXUS63 KGLD 260844
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
244 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Breezy winds today with a few chances for showers/storms
  through the day. Severe weather is not expected.

- Warm and active pattern is expected next week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Issued at 241 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

The short term period is forecast to be a bit calmer with the upper
pattern generally consisting of northwest flow and ridging.

For today, the main condition of interest will be breezy winds as
the pressure gradient tightens a bit with the eastward progression
of the surface low. Winds should reach 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to
40 mph through the day. With the upper trough swinging through the
area, the flow above the area will be a bit weaker than yesterday
which is limiting how gusty it will get during the day. Otherwise,
dry air and partly cloudy skies are forecast across a majority of
the area. There could be a few showers to start the day (favoring
counties along the CO border) and end of the day (favoring Highway
83 and east) as mid level moisture is forecast to move across the
area. With the dry air near the surface, very little precipitation
is expected, though some lightning could occur with CAPE around 500-
1000 J/KG. Severe weather is not expected.

For the Memorial Day holiday and Tuesday, near average temperatures
around 80 and calmer winds around 10 to 15 mph are forecast. Skies
will generally be sunny during the daytime, but could see cloud
cover and showers/storms during the evening hours into the early
morning hours. Shortwaves are forecast to move through the main flow
and mid level moisture continues to be forecast to move over the
area. Precipitation amounts and severe chances both look to be low
with drier air and weak flow near the surface. The only other thing
to potentially watch would be for fog Monday morning with light
winds from the east. However, fog should be low chance with the dry
air near the surface (forecast lowest 1km RH around 30-50%).
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Wednesday, an upper-level ridge will still be in the area and its
axis will be moving over during the day. This ridge will dominate
the period through early Thursday, bringing warmer temperatures and
pop-up showers and storms Wednesday afternoon. These showers and
storms are generally expected to be scattered in nature, although
severe weather cannot be ruled out due to fairly strong shear. PoPs
range around 30-60, tapering off in the west.

Thursday, an upper-level low pressure system is showing up near the
Great Basin/Four Corners region. Very little has changed over the
past 24 hours. Ensembles and diagnostic models are still showing
this feature, which could bring our next chances of organized,
potentially severe, convection. Ahead of the convection, starting
some time Wednesday evening, the LLJ looks to start kicking up and
will start shoveling moisture into the region. The LLJ looks to
continue for about 48 hours, until the low level system moves
through. This increased moisture is expected to increase PWATS to
well over an inch. Combined with effective shear of 35-50 kts,
1,500+ J/kg CAPE, low LCLs and moderately slow storm motions, all
hazards are possible including flooding. Confidence at this point is
low (~10-15%) that severe weather will occur, but pinpointing a time
and place for severe weather is impossible this far out. Thursday
and Friday evenings will both have chances at severe weather, but
current guidance suggests Friday has a slightly better chance at
severe weather.

There is a chance (~20%) that we will only see some showers or weak
storms on Thursday and Friday. This would occur if the increased
cloud cover kept temperatures cooler than forecast, which would
greatly reduce our instability.

Temperatures will generally range from the mid 70s to upper 80s
throughout the period and lows will cool into the upper 40s and
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
northwest wind around 10kts is forecast from taf issuance
through 11z. From 12z-01z, northwest winds increase with peak
gusts around 30kts. After 02z, northwest winds under 11kts
resumes.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through 10z
with winds from the northwest at speeds under 10kts. From
11z-15z, there is increasing confidence that stratus will move
over the terminal from the east, creating sub VFR cigs. From
16z-00z, northwest winds increase with peak gusts around 25kts.
After 01z, north to northwest winds under 11kts resume. Later
forecasts will need to closely examine the possibility of
showers/thunderstorms impacting the terminal in the 20z-23z
timeframe.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...99