-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
337
FXUS63 KGLD 260225
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
825 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible for most of Northwestern Kansas and
  Southwestern Nebraska this afternoon and evening. Yuma county
  could also see a severe storm or two. Large to very large
  hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible.

- Warm and active pattern is expected next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 825 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

The latest RAP/HRRR models are suggesting that a cold front
currently extends west of Norton and Graham counties where
winds are generally light and variable. For the next few hours,
these models are forecasting moisture and forcing to increase
across these counties as well as maybe Decatur and thunderstorms
currently east of the area develop along this moisture axis
where low level wind convergence increases as the front moves
through. Any storms that develop could become severe with large
hail the primary hazard followed by gusty winds and some locally
heavy rainfall. For those reasons, will keep the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch going until 12 AM MDT (1 AM CDT). Elsewhere,
those counties that were in the watch have been removed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

High level cloud cover enveloped much of the area this morning, with
some breaks becoming evident in satellite this afternoon across
southwestern portions. 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT) temperatures are ranging
in the middle 70s to lower 80s with 30 dews in eastern Colorado and
middle 40s dews across eastern portions, as high as 50F in McCook.
Fire weather conditions with south-southwesterly winds gusting 25-35
mph and relative humidity below 15% are being observed across
Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado. The Red Flag Warning
for Cheyenne county, CO remains in effect through 6 PM MDT to
account for these conditions anticipated to persist at least 3 hours
this afternoon.

Regarding the severe weather threat for this afternoon, SPC
continues a marginal risk (hazard level 1/5) to slight risk (hazard
level 2/5) across the Tri-State Area. Favored area for severe storms
within the CWA, if they were to occur, would be roughly along/east
of a Stratton, Nebraska to Oakley, Kansas line, greatest chances
with eastward extent. Based off latest CAMs, scattered thunderstorm
development is anticipated between 20-23Z both along a convergence
zone situated roughly in vicinity of Hwy 83 and with the cold front
entering northwest portions of the area (Yuma, Dundy counties). As
storms move generally towards the east-northeast into a more
favorable environment, they may become severe, primarily between 23-
02Z. Greater moisture availability and instability (with CAPE values
of approx. 1500-2000 J/kg) reside in this region. If storms do
become severe, all hazards would be possible, including large to
very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

The cold front is anticipated to move through the area between 00-
06Z. In addition to chances for storm development (where moisture is
sufficient) along the front, winds will shift to the north-northwest
with gusts to around 35-45 mph for a time before relaxing
thereafter. Overnight lows are forecast in the middle 40s to upper
50s.

For Sunday, low pressure progresses off towards the east. A few
showers/storms are possible in the afternoon-early evening, favoring
northeastern portions of the area, locations roughly along/east of a
Stratton, Nebraska to Hill City line. Elsewhere clear to partly
cloudy skies are anticipated. Afternoon highs are forecast in the
mid to upper 70s followed by overnight lows in the middle 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Pleasant weather anticipated for the Memorial Day Holiday as a ridge
of high pressure builds in, giving sunny skies, light west-
northwesterly winds, and high temperatures in the middle 70s to
middle 80s. Overnight, temperatures fall into the middle 40s to
middle 50s and there is slight chance for development of a few
showers/storms across southern portions as a weak wave moves
through.

Tuesday and Wednesday will have high temperatures climbing into the
low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies. Again a few waves moving
under the ridge will allow for slight chance to chance for showers/
thunderstorms. Guidance does suggest more moisture will be drawn
into the region in this timeframe; however, shear currently looks
rather lackluster so will continue to monitor the potential for
severe weather. Overnight lows are forecast to be generally in the
50s.

During the latter part of the work week, the upper ridge moves off
towards the east and an upper trough swings through the northern
CONUS, with flow aloft becoming more west-southwesterly. More
moisture will be drawn in, with PWATs above an inch over the eastern
2/3 of the area. Will again need to monitor the potential for severe
weather, as well as some potential for flooding concern. Highs in
the 80s on Thursday, middle 70s to low 80s on Friday, and upper 70s
to middle 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows are forecast generally in
the upper 40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 420 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northwest
winds gusting 25 to 35kts are expected from taf issuance through
03z. From 04z-10z, northwest winds up to 11kts are anticipated.
After 11z, northwest winds increase with gusts up to 30kts
expected. Presently, no precipitation is forecast near or over
the terminal.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Variable
winds gusting to 25kts are possible from taf issuance through
01z with gusts up to 45kts maybe higher around any convection
which is forecast in the 01z-02z timeframe. From 02z-12z,
northwest winds up to 11kts are expected. After 13z, northwest
winds increase with gusts in the 25 to maybe 30kt range.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99