-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
983
FXUS63 KGLD 241945
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
145 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- There is a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms in
  northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska Saturday afternoon and
  evening.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible in northeast
  Colorado Saturday afternoon where fuels remain susceptible to
  wildfires.

- Warmer and potentially active pattern for next week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Zonal flow tonight with a weak shortwave moving through. Models
only hinting at a light shower this evening, but with dew points
in the 20s and 30s doubtful will see any kind of precipitation
reaching the ground. Otherwise, expecting some passing clouds
with the disturbance and lows in the 40s.

On Saturday, flow will transition to southwest ahead of a broad
trough that moves through in the afternoon and evening. Surface
low will deepen in northeast Colorado in the afternoon, with
warm front lifting north across the area and dry line pushing
east into the Colorado/Kansas border area. Best chances for
thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon will be near the surface low
in Colorado. Models still split on whether or not convection
will initiate on the dry line, with the NAMnest the most
aggressive as usual. Should storms get going the environment
further east would be supportive of supercells with large hail,
damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. This threat will be
maintained into the evening hours in the eastern six counties.
Further west behind the dry line, there will be near critical to
critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon then widely
scattered high based storms with a damaging wind threat as the
cold front moves through during the evening. Precipitation
should be done by 06z for the entire area. High temperatures
will be in the 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

Another shortwave trough moves across on Sunday. However, post
frontal environment will have only limited moisture and
instability. Expecting only widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms by the afternoon with best chances in northern
areas closest to the track of the upper shortwave. No severe
storms are expected at this time. Storms should fade relatively
quickly Sunday night. Highs will be in the 70s and lows in the
40s.

Monday will see a bit of a pattern change with an upper ridge
building over the northern Rockies and northwest flow downstream
over the central plains. Low level moisture return and
instability will be very limited, and with no clear sign of a
disturbance in the flow aloft no precipitation is expected.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows Monday
night in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Upper ridge axis moves from the Rockies on Tuesday to the
central plains on Wednesday. There will be decent low level
moisture return and instability both days. Appears that weak
waves moving through the ridge will be enough for scattered
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Hard to rule out
severe storms either day with deep layer shear of 40-50 kts, but
coverage may be somewhat limited given weak forcing under the
ridge.

On Thursday and Friday, the ridge moves east as a deep cut off
low develops over the Pacific northwest. This will bring a
return to southwest flow aloft over the plains which has been
prevalent for much of the spring. Occasional shortwaves moving
through will continue the chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Instability and deep layer shear are forecast to
be more than an adequate for a risk of severe thunderstorms both
days.

Temperatures through the period will be slightly above average
with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Surface winds will diminish at both terminals by early
this afternoon as high pressure moves across, then increase
again late tonight and especially Saturday morning as the
pressure gradient increases again.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for COZ252>254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024