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665
FXUS61 KGYX 221635
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1235 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and increasingly humid conditions expected today and
to a lesser extent Thursday. A cold front will cross the region
Thursday afternoon and will bring potential for thunderstorms
with the potential for a couple to become strong to severe. It
will remain warm Friday into the weekend weak systems bringing
low chances for showers late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1235 PM Update...No significant changes to the going forecast
with only minor tweaks to temperatures and sky cover to align
with observations.

950 AM Update...There remains a few isolated showers along the
coastal plain of Maine, while these should dissipate over the
next hour. Cloud cover has been stubborn to erode along the
coastal plain and these clouds have caused temperatures to run
cooler than forecast. Have mainly adjusted sky cover and
temperatures to account for these trends over the next couple of
hours. Expectations remain that skies clear through the rest of
the morning resulting in a very warm day with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon
across central Maine along the sea breeze boundary.

645 AM...This update mainly deals with the showers that
developed over the Whites and the ME foothills. There is
probably some leftover boundary here from last night`s
convection and just a suggestion of a mid level, more in the
temp fields than anything else. This should die off or move out
in the couple hours, with clearing coming in quick, as ridging
returns at all levels.

Previously...Its a very good pattern to bake across N New
England today, given the strong SW flow at mid levels and a
little less so at the sfc and 500 MB ridging moving in. Add to
that 850 temps pushing up to +17C this afternoon and that means
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across inland areas, S of the
mtns and away from the coast. While the mtns and coastal will
still get into the low to mid 80s, except for the immediate
shoreline where highs will still push into 70s. Other than some
convective debris and some fog early this morning, should see
mainly sunny skies, with just some cirrus overhead. Models show
maybe a few showers from dying MCS moving through far NE CWA
early today, and some CAMs suggest some convection may develop
on sea breeze front in ME late this afternoon, so will have to
watch how that develops.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A steadier SW boundary lower will persist overnight, and this
will make for a a warm night in some spots, and may see less in
the way of fog, although valley fog still possible in some spots
as well, but overall less than weve seen in previous nights.
Mins will mostly be in the low to mid 60s, but some upper 50s
along the mid coast where the marine influence will be best.
Could see a few scattered SHRA/TSRA move into NH after midnight
and track into ME around daybreak, but the better chance will be
during the day Thursday, when an actual cold front crosses the
CWA. Still, models are not so excited about convection with the
front on Thu, and have the best chc in the mtns in the morning,
but the front should cross much of the CWA during the afternoon.
This looks like a case where forcing to initiate convection will
be hard to come, and will have to look for areas of convergence
near the sfc to get it going, and it be more scattered, than a
solid line. Still given good height falls and reasonably strong
mid level flow, there is potential for some severe S of the
mtns Thu afternoon in whatever storms do form. It`ll still be
warm and humid, but not as hot as Wed, with highs 75-80 in the
mtns and in the low to mid 80s min the S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Skies quickly clear out behind the front Thursday evening into
Thursday night as drier air works into the area. Overnight lows
remain mild with mid 50s to lower 60s expected. It`s possible
some of the valleys see fog develop late and toward daybreak,
and if any develops it should quickly clear up within an hour or
two after sunrise. The dry air stays around for Friday
providing mostly sunny skies with no rain in the forecast. It
will again be quite warm with temperatures reaching the upper
70s to mid 80s away from the coast.

The warmth continues over the weekend, but a couple of weak waves
aloft will cross the area, bringing a chance of showers each day.
With how things look right now, the higher shower chances will be
across the interior and farther north and mainly during the daytime
hours. High temps are forecast to reach the 70s to low 80s for much
of the area, but prevailing southerly flow/seabreeze will keep
things cooler along the coast. Will also have to watch for marine
fog/stratus during the nighttime hours.

The next opportunity for more widespread precip arrives early next
week as global models are in decent agreement showing a more
amplified trough and potentially a deepening coastal low moving into
the Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...The nighttime fog and stratus have been difficult
to pin down the last few nights, and that remain the case
tonight, although most terminals have been VFR, with the
exception of KCON. Mostly those places that saw rain are where
there could be some early morning, KLEB/KHIE/KMHT/KCON, but
again if it does develop, it should dissipate fairly quickly, by
11-12Z. VFR will prevail through today and probably into
tonight, except for possible valley fog at KLEB/KHIE. On Thu,,
scattered TSRA are possible in the afternoon, but other than
that VFR should hold into Thu evening.

Long Term...Drier air and high pressure brings mostly VFR
Friday into early Saturday, but another low pressure will bring
more chances for showers and flight restrictions the rest of the
weekend. Southerly flow will also keep the potential of marine
fog/stratus for the coastal sites over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Will see a few gusts outside the bays today in the
20-25 kt range, but seas will in the 2-4 ft range, and then
diminish with the winds tonight, stay below SCA criteria into
Thu night.

Long Term...A cold front is forecast to cross the waters by
late afternoon or early evening Thu with a wind shift to
northerly into Thursday evening/night. Winds are expected to
remain below SCA levels. Additional weak low pressures will move
through over the weekend and with southerly flow generally
remaining, will probably see additional fog over the waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cempa/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Cempa/Combs