970
FXUS61 KGYX 161405
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1005 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the New Jersey coastline will bring some
showers into the region today and into this evening, mainly over
southern areas. This system will move out to sea on Friday with
high pressure controlling our weather through the weekend.
Stronger high pressure and warmer temperatures move in for early
next week, with temperatures remaining seasonable for mid May.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...I`ve re-timed POPS a bit though today as the chance of
showers slowly sinks S NH over the next several hours, and
starts to increase over the mtns, especially in ME. Potential
for convection looks better too, especially over the foothills
of ME, where there may be some differential heating between
clearer /though still some cirrus/ to the S, and cloudy skies to
the N /at least according to latest CAMs/. Also, this area for
western ME Lakes to the Capital region will have the warmest
temps, in the low 70s, with the coolest areas in the S of 60-65.


625 AM Update...Primary update was adjusting QPF slightly upwards across
southern NH based on rainfall observations. Otherwise just the usual
near-term edits to temps/dewpoints to match up with the latest obs.

Previous...

Similar to the last couple of mornings, patchy fog will be
around in some areas before dissipating within a couple hours
post sunrise. It could be locally dense in a few areas,
particularly across northern valleys.

Apart from the fog, a stacked area of low pressure south of the
area will stay more or less stationary for much of the day
today. Guidance has continued in its trend a little farther
north with its location, and therefore higher moisture on its
northern periphery has already made it farther into southern NH
and far SW ME with light rain is already falling. This results
in showers continuing this morning across this region into early
afternoon along with cloudy skies, although it`s still a bit up
in the air the northward extent of the precip (there will
likely be a sharp cutoff). For now, highest PoPs of 60-80% are
along and south of a Keene-Concord-Rochester line a pretty sharp
drop off in PoPs to the north. These showers will start winding
down by mid to late afternoon as the low starts to move
southward. Portions of southern NH may see rainfall amounts
in the 0.50"-1.00" range by this afternoon as some private
weather stations are already seeing amounts around 0.25" as of
330 AM.

Farther to the north where there will be a little more sunshine,
scattered afternoon showers will develop again, especially from the
foothills northward. Although coverage is not expected to be as high
as Wednesday, what develops will likely be slow-moving and could
produce some heavy downpours.

In between these two areas may not see much in the way of precip at
all with rain chances of only 20% or less.

Cloudier skies and showers are expected to keep temperatures
cooler for southern NH with highs limited to the lower 60s with
warmer temperatures of mids 60s to lower 70s farther north and
over into interior western Maine. The Maine coast will be cooler
and mostly in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The low pressure system continues its dive to the south and east
early this evening, which will take the higher moisture along with
it. Although a few showers could occur across the north, shower
activity for the most part will end pretty quickly. The drier air
being pulled in will also offer more clearing, especially away from
the coast, and with light winds patchy fog is expected again. Closer
to the coast, marine fog and stratus could arrive by early this
evening, but low-level becoming light and more N/NE may keep it from
becoming too much of an issue. Overnight lows will be range from the
mid to upper 40s where more clearing occurs to the lower 50s where
more clouds.

The atmosphere will be drier on Friday that we`ll see more
sunshine than today, but enough moisture will still be present
to bring another round of diurnal showers. Northern NH and the
western ME mountains have the better chance (around 40%) while
I`m carrying a slight chance as far south as central NH and the
foothills in western ME. There even may be a thunderstorm across
the western ME mountains, but it`s not officially in the
forecast at the moment. Areas to the south are expected to
remain dry. It will be warm again with inland locations reaching
the lower to mid 70s with 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will remain south and east of our region well out
to sea as we begin the long range portion of the forecast. On
Saturday, a weakening system will approach from the west. This
may possibly trigger a light shower over the northern
mountains. It will be seasonably mild with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s, except cooler along the coast where winds will
become onshore.

More sunshine can be expected on Sunday as high pressure remains
over the region and ridging develops aloft. It will be a repeat
performance in the temperature department with upper 60s to
lower 70s except cooler near the shore with a sea breeze.

An upper level low over the Mid Atlantic region will act to
further build our Northeast ridge aloft early next week. This
will lead to above normal temperatures for this time of the year
with widespread 70s on Monday and a few areas across the
interior topping out in the lower 80s. Along the coast, sea
breezes will dominate with temperatures only in the 60s for
daytime highs.

Ensemble solutions and latest models remain in relatively good
agreement allow a large scale trough to approach the region by
Wednesday. This will lead to more clouds and a cooler maritime
flow off the Gulf of Maine. Scattered showers will develop over
the region as a trough approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Once fog dissipates this morning, most sites should
stay VFR today with lower coverage of showers. The exception will be
MHT, CON, PSM, and possibly PWM where the forecast has trended
wetter with light rain showers today. MVFR cigs/vsby more likely
now, especially at MHT with IFR not out of the question. The
other thing to watch for is marine fog and whether it can make
it to coastal sites. It should stay offshore through today, but
could start moving inland some time this evening, especially at
RKD. Overnight though, winds do turn more northerly so that may
help things at the coast. However, fog will be possible
elsewhere too. Mostly VFR expected Friday.

Long Term...VFR conditions will dominate the region Friday
night. Some pockets of MVFR conditions can be expected in the
mountains on Saturday in scattered showers. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will occur on Sunday and into early next week. By
Wednesday, showers will lead to MVFR and possibly IFR conditions
as ceiling lower.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure south of the waters will result in an east
or northeast wind through Friday, but winds are expected to become
more southeasterly near the coast in the afternoons today and Friday
with the seabreeze. A small swell will slowly build seas to around 4
ft over the outer waters, possibly up to 5 ft well offshore. A
Small Craft Advisory may eventually be needed to cover these 5
ft seas.

Long Term...Winds/seas will stay below SCA levels Friday night through
Wednesday, as flow remains light. The prominent wind direction
will be out of the east.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Combs
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Cannon
AVIATION...
MARINE...