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814
FXUS63 KICT 292321
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
621 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon

- Several showers/storm chances through the weekend and possibly
  into next week

- Best rain chances late Thursday into Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

As of 230 PM Wednesday afternoon, a summer-like pattern was present
across the Plains with pulse convection developing amongst a weakly
sheared environment. Satellite reveals an expansive cumulus field
across the forecast area with zones of agitation. Expect isolated
showers/storms through sunset. With shear values near 20 kt, the
strongest updrafts may produce pea size hail and gusty winds up to
40 mph.

More-widespread convection is expected towards dawn Thursday through
the afternoon , especially west of Interstate 135, as a midlevel
shortwave trough advances across the area. Similar to today, weak
shear should limit the overall severe weather potential with the
strongest storms capable of dime size hail and 50 mph winds. Another
midlevel shortwave trough will emerge late Thursday into Friday
yielding additional rain chances. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend and possibly into next week with weak
perturbations translating across the Plains atop a weakly to
moderately unstable environment. A pattern change may ensue towards
the latter half of next week with midlevel ridging sliding in from
the western CONUS. This would shunt precipitation chances east of
the area with increasing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Generally dry with VFR conditions tonight. However, showers and
storms over western Kansas may drift into parts of central and
south central Kansas by dawn on Thursday and then affect much of
this area thru at least midday. Some patchy MVFR cigs can be
expected in central Kansas during the morning and perhaps in and
near any convection, including MVFR vsbys.

KED
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&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...KED