-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
208
FXUS63 KICT 290554
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1254 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thursday night/Friday will have the best chance for more numerous
showers and storms to affect the region

- Periodic storm chances continue for the weekend into next
  week, severe weather risk will remain low

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Lingering mid-level baroclinic zone with some persistent warm air
advection will continue to trigger elevated showers and storms
through the afternoon/evening across central/south central Kansas.
Severe weather is not expected. Meanwhile current satellite water
vapor imagery shows a upper level short wave over New Mexico moving
eastward. As this wave approaches western Texas/southwest Kansas
scattered to numerous storms should re-develop in those areas later
this afternoon/tonight, and most of this activity will remain west
of central/south central Kansas tonight. The mid-level baroclinic
zone looks to linger across the region through Wednesday and with
some weak warm moist advection this could spark off additional
elevated showers/storms during the day. Storms should redevelop over
the high plains area eastern Colorado/western Kansas Wednesday
afternoon/evening, as a low level moist upslope regime gets
underway. This activity will then spread eastward and increase in
coverage as moisture transport/low level jet increases for Wednesday
night. Again severe weather risk looks low with weaker winds aloft
expected.

Thursday - Monday

The upper-level trough currently churning off the coast of
Washington state is expected to produce the first of a series of
shortwaves that will roll off the High Plains and across Kansas on
Thursday. Coupled with moderate instability and shear, multicell
showers and storms are expected to arise as a result of this
synoptic forcing. There are limiting factors that will inhibit the
severe potential during this time, but a handful of storms producing
small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out.

The wet pattern is anticipated to continue as the aforementioned
shortwaves continue to bring chances of rain through Monday. Warmer
temperatures are expected in the wake of this active period as we
progress further into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side.

Showers and storms are coming to an end across western KS with
a remnant MCV possible today across OK. Surface high will shift
east today into the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley which will
keep southerly low level flow and moisture in place. Currently
not going with any showers or storms in the TAFs, but it`s not
out of the question we may see a few storms late this afternoon
as we remain uncapped with increasing instability. Just not sure
there will be enough surface convergence to get storms to
develop. So will leave out of TAFs for now.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ/JK
AVIATION...RBL