-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
961
FXUS64 KJAN 210911
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
411 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 410 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Today through tonight: Another dry day with above normal
temperatures is expected as the subtropical ridge axis extending
from Mexico into the Lower Mississippi Valley region crosses our
area. At the surface, high pressure will shift to our east, and
this will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increased
surface wind gusts during peak heating. Fog will continue to be a
concern during the early morning hours over the Pine Belt region,
and have kept the mention of dense fog in the graphicss. /EC/

Wednesday into early next week...

Early morning global guidance continues to highlight a strong 983 mb
low pressure system tracking northeast towards the Great Lakes-
southern Canada through Wednesday morning. As the sfc low shifts
towards southern Canada, model consensus indicate height falls along
the northern extent of the subtropical ridge across the Mid South
to the Gulf Coast States. Because of this, a frontal boundary
will start to shift southward across these zone with further
northern extension into the Ohio Valley and the Upper East Coast.

Overall, model guidance appears to be in alignment with the
placement of the frontal boundary heading into Wednesday
evening/Wednesday night. There is some slight discrepancies with
the guidance as the Euro shows the frontal boundary clipping
extreme northwest ArkLaMiss Delta area slightly faster than the
GFS. Nevertheless, the combination of southerly return flow,
increased moist ascent, and limited deep shear >40kts will help
support a low end threat of isolated strong-severe storms with
damaging winds and hail up to quarter size being the primary
concerns. The threat for isolated severe storms will continue
across most of the Delta as we head into Thursday. We maintained a
Marginal Risk (1 out 5)in the HWO graphic for both days with most
of the severe threat diminishing around late Thursday evening.

Giving the increasing humidity, warm temperatures, and presence
of a nearby frontal boundary, storm chances will continue for the
northern areas. Guidance consensus highlights multiple decent
waves moving across the forecast area as we head into the weekend.
Forecast confidence at this time remains low. We will continue to
monitor trends and will provide updates as we get closer to the
weekend and model data becomes available. Heading into the next
work week, a large scale trough will begin to set up across the
eastern CONUS. This trough will help push a cool front and dry air
into our CWA with rain chance starting to decrease by the middle
of next week. /CR/
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the most part along with gusty
southerly winds during time of peak heating. Patchy areas of IFR
category BR/FG will be likely in the PIB/HBG area during the early
morning. Any fog/stratus should dissipate by mid morning. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  88  69  89 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      67  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     70  89  71  90 /   0   0  10  10
Hattiesburg   67  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       69  88  69  90 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    73  89  72  89 /   0  10  20  20
Greenwood     71  90  71  90 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/CR/EC