-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
807
FXUS63 KJKL 280804
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington OH
404 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- A period of cooler than normal temperatures, and drier than
  normal conditions is expected across eastern Kentucky over the
  next 5-7 days.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this
  afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, but coverage and rainfall
  amounts will be scattered and light.

- Warmer and somewhat more humid weather will return by next
  weekend, with our next area-wide chance of showers and
  thunderstorms.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2024

Rather potent shortwave trough over Indiana will continue to
rotate east through the longwave trough across the eastern United
States today. This feature will serve to do two things - 1) steepen
low and mid level lapse rates which will aid in the development
of afternoon cumulus and a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm
at peak heating (these should remain quite scattered/limited in
coverage), and 2) carve out deeper/stronger negative mid level
height anomalies which will serve to reinforce the cooler air that
has moved into the Ohio Valley.

Expect a fair amount of sunshine this morning to be quickly
replaced by building cumulus during the afternoon, especially
north as mixing increases and lapse rates steepen. Forecast
soundings this afternoon suggest enough shallow instability and
EQLs to -15C or so again especially across the north, a few
lightning strikes can`t be ruled out. However, the overall
troposphere is quite thus shower coverage should remain quite
sparse which is generally an amalgam of the various CAMs -- some
have quite a decent amount of coverage while some have very
little. Better forcing to the north means higher coverage of
showers should remain north of the area.

Lapse rates remain steep overnight as cold advection continues, so
clouds may not erode as quickly as forecast overnight, though any
showers should slowly come to an end. A reinforcing lobe of
energy digging southeast through the longwave trough should
continue shower threats and more clouds especially across the
north/northeast parts of the forecast area. Temperatures running a
few degrees cooler than on Tuesday, and may struggle to reach 70F
in the far north.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2024

A continued cool and largely dry pattern across eastern Kentucky
for Thursday and Friday, with plenty of sunshine especially
Friday. Friday morning low temperatures could settle into the
upper 40s in some of the sheltered/cold prone areas on Friday
morning, feeling more like later April than the approach of June.

Southwest flow begins on Saturday and increases on Sunday on the
backside of the sharp upper ridge axis traversing the Ohio Valley.
Warmth and humidity will be on the increase, which sets up a more
traditional early June pattern for much of next week with
increasing chances of showers and storms, and temperatures
returning into the 80s with more humidity. Right now the better
chances of rain look to be on Saturday into Sunday, but admittedly
confidence is not overly with considerably amplitude/timing
differences with the next wave(s) as the pattern becomes less
amplified / quasi-zonal.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2024

Valley fog formed quickly in the clearing air with light winds
and KSME has quickly dropped to VLIFR visibilities. While this may
bump up and down a little through 12Z, think the trend will be
for this to lock in at the 1/4SM or 1/2SM range much of the night.
May see some brief MVFR fog at KLOZ as well toward sunrise. Winds
overnight will generally be light/variable or calm.

Once heating commences on Tuesday, expect cumulus to form/fill in
rather quickly especially with a weather disturbance pushing
through. Expect a VFR ceiling at most sites by the afternoon
(BKN050 or so) and some quick moving isolated or scattered showers
not out of the question especially at SJS/SYM. Have a VCSH
mentioned during the afternoon at those two sites. Winds may
intermittently gust past 15 knots at any site this afternoon with
good mixing, but highest chances at the northern terminals. Broken
VFR ceilings should hang into the early evening before starting to
scatter out later in the evening especially southern terminals.
Winds should decrease quickly after sunset.
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&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JKL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...JKL