-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
927
FXUS63 KJKL 261840
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
240 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight,
  with damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes
  possible.

- Multiple rounds of heavy to excessive rainfall with these storms
  may produce flash flooding.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible through the middle of the
  week, mainly during the afternoon.


&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 240 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2024

Line of severe thunderstorms is continuing eastward, halfway
through the forecast area. The POP has been increase for this
afternoon to take the MCS through the remainder of the area.

UPDATE Issued at 1119 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2024

MCS continues marching east across KY. Have updated the forecast
for timing in the JKL forecast area for this afternoon based on
extrapolated movement and latest model output. Primary threat is
damaging wind, but QLCS tornadoes remain possible. SPC has issued
Tornado Watch 315 for roughly the western half of the JKL forecast
area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 4 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2024

High resolution guidance continues to signal the potential for
several rounds of showers and storms today and tonight. For early
this afternoon, warm air advection will pick up in the low levels.
Mass convergence ahead of this will cause scattered storms to
develop. There is some uncertainty as far as coverage, so kept
PoPs in the likely category for now. Despite moderate instability,
bulk shear remains rather low, so severe potential remains modest.

There may be a weakening convective system diving southeast
through the region late this afternoon into the evening. This will
likely be accompanied by some gusty winds and will be followed by
a cooler, more stable airmass.

Finally, a third line of convection will likely impact eastern
Kentucky late tonight. Wind fields will be much stronger with this
convection, leading to the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms. However, while bulk effective shear lifts to 40-50
knots, instability should remain somewhat modest due to the
previous convection during the day. Will need to monitor this
closely with future updates.

The cold front itself will finally make its way through the area
Monday. By then, wind fields will have decreased some... but
there remains enough instability for scattered showers and storms.
Suppose a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out with this
frontal convection, particularly in the southeast during the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 531 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2024

We are looking at a pattern change for the extended portion of
the forecast. Large slow moving mid/upper level trough/low will
rotate its way through the Great Lakes during the period, keeping
our area under the influence of northwest flow. There are a series
of short wave disturbances that round the base of the mean trough
that may impact our forecast area, providing what could be
described as a glancing blow Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.
Strong upper level ridging, and surface high pressure will build
into the Ohio Valley by the very end of the forecast window.

Sensible weather features generally quiet weather as compared to
more recent days. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will
come to an end quickly Monday evening. The aforementioned
disturbances will clip our forecast area, bringing a low chance
(15-20% PoPs) of showers and thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon, generally to our eastern most zones.
Temperatures will average about normal through the period, with
afternoon highs around 80 through the period. The exception with
be Wednesday and Thursday, with daily highs in the low to mid 70s
thanks to a cool Canadian high pressure system. Highs climb back
into the low to mid 80 by the end of the forecast window.
Overnight lows will average around 50 degrees in our coolest
valley locations, and the m id to upper 50s along our ridges.
Other the the potential for thunderstorms, there are no hazards
for the extended portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 7 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2024

Main concern during the TAF window is a few periods of thunderstorms,
potentially strong with gusty winds, this afternoon and evening...
then again overnight. High resolution guidance is zeroing in on a
two-hour period as a complex of storms arrives from the west.
After this period of stormy weather, another line may impact our
terminals, with this producing a temporary westerly shift in wind
direction with some gusts. Have decided to leave this short window
out of the TAFs for now due to time and area uncertainty.

A stronger line of storms will likely impact the terminals late
tonight after midnight. This is currently represented in the TAFs
with VCTS. Will focus the time frame down with future updates.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ079-083-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HOGUE
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HOGUE