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414
FXUS62 KKEY 021418
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1018 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 1017 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

It has been a relatively active morning across mainly the coastal
waters of the Florida Keys. KBYX is detecting scattered showers
with embedded isolated thunderstorms along roughly a line
extending from just north of the Dry Tortugas, eastward across the
Florida Bay and into our extreme eastern waters. This activity is
drifting westward at about 10 knots and has been very pulse-y in
nature. This is not surprising looking at this morning`s sounding,
which showed a modestly unstable environment, low shear, and no
discernible cap. There is however, a layer of dry air in the mid
levels between 500 and 850 mb. This is likely also lending to the
pulse nature of these storms and why we are seeing storms that
quickly sprout up do not tend to last too long after spitting out
some lightning. Otherwise, since most of the convection has missed
the island chain thus far, temperatures are in the mid 80s with
dew points in the lower to mid 70s.

Given the volatile nature of the atmosphere, will leave the high
end chance PoPs of 50 percent currently in the forecast. As we
have seen thus far any boundaries out there have activated with
showers and brief thunderstorms. With a surface high pressure
centered near Bermuda and a low level ridge roughly in the same
location, we will have an easterly steering flow this
morning, gradually and briefly backing to north of east. In fact,
looking east there are additional boundaries moving across our
waters and towards the island chain. This will continue to serve
as the focal point for additional showers and thunderstorms. As
the steering flow goes north of east this afternoon we will then
also have to shift our focus to possible cloud line development.
All in all, keep the umbrella handy!
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 1017 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect. That
being said, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
to proliferate across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
Mariners should exercise caution as the stronger storms have a
history of producing wind gusts to near 25 knots, along bouts of
lightning, and reduced visibility within moderate to heavy
downpours. High pressure just off the Carolina coast will weaken
as it lengthens eastward into the atlantic over the next few days.
As a result mostly easterly breezes will range gentle to
moderate, peaking in the afternoon and evenings and lulling
overnight into the morning hours.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1017 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected at both EYW and MTH today. A
higher than normal rain chance today has resulted in a VCSH mention
in both TAFs. Developing convection will be pulsey and widely
scattered resulting in large uncertainty in exact location and
timing. Amendments will be used to describe short term sub-VFR
conditions with showers and storms passing directly over terminals.
Rain chances will remain enhanced through tonight and likely peak as
winds increase to 10 to 15 knots and some higher gusts this
evening.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in day in Keys Weather History, in 1966 an F2 tornado
unaffiliated with a tropical cyclone injured one and produced $25k
in damage in Key West.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Key West  89  80  89  80 /  50  50  40  40
Marathon  89  80  88  80 /  50  50  50  40
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&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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