-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
164
FXUS62 KKEY 210256
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1056 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Convection earlier in the day quickly wound down by the mid
afternoon and by sunset nearly all the convection had cleared out
from the Florida Keys coastal waters. Of note, Marathon
International Airport shattered their daily precipitation record
with just over 7 inches. Once the convective influences on winds
died down, the winds clocked around from the west and northwest.
Despite the wet and stormy day today, temperatures rebounded in
the late afternoon and are have only fallen down into the lower
80s. Dew points are a little more reasonable with values in the
lower to mid 70s as opposed to upper 70s to near 80.

As mentioned previously, KBYX radar is convection free in our
immediate forecast area. There is ongoing activity out across
the Bahamas and moving away from our area. Looking at CIMSS
analysis, there is still a spoke of vorticity that has yet to
pivot through the area. Hi-res CAMs indicate that as this spoke
pushes through overnight that new convection could fire, mainly in
our western waters. However, looking at infrared satellite
imagery, there is no evidence of any new convection firing yet
along the west coast of Florida. That is not to say it still can`t
happen but it calls into question how likely we are to see
redevelopment overnight. Pros: there is a spoke of low to mid-
level vorticity, i.e. source of lift, progged to swing through and
there is still over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Cons: There is much drier
air which has resulted in a lower precipitable water value from 12
hours ago and many of the boundaries has been either pushed out or
washed out. Therefore, reluctant to change PoPs from low end
chance (30 percent), but it remains to be seen if this is too
generous.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 1055 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Thunderstorm coverage has all but dissipated and
breezes have clocked around to the west and northwest. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms may develop overnight but with
less coverage expected. Tuesday through Wednesday, breezes will
gradually shift to the east as high pressure in the western North
Atlantic builds back in across the region. Gentle east to
southeast breezes will resume Friday through Saturday.
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&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the overnight and into
Tuesday. Convection may redevelop overnight but stay to the west
of the terminals. Light and variable winds will become northwest
overnight and then return to light and variable after dawn
Tuesday.
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&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....DR

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