-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
646
FXUS62 KKEY 170234
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1034 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 923 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Currently - A deep layered trough centered off the New England
coast extends a trough southwestward into the southeastern United
States. This has pushed southward across Cuba an Atlantic ridge.
This along with day time heating over Florida has resulted in
winds becoming light our of the northwest to north this afternoon
and evening. The lower level ridge is also aligned across Cuba and
close enough to the Keys to provide quite a bit of drier air
through the lower levels. This evenings sounding also indicated
modest inhibition, but through a rather thick layer below 700 mb.
As a result, no shower activity has been present across the
broader area. The northwest flow may have contributed to a degree
or two dip in dew points, which are now in the mid 70s.
Temperatures, however, remain in the mid 80s.

Short Term Update - Surface winds will be light and variable over
the next few hours, but will ultimately firm up modestly out of
the south to southwest as day time effects dissipate and the
synoptic flow returns. Forecast soundings and plan views suggest
increased lower level moisture of Cuban origin will lift northward
across the Keys overnight. However, the thick slab of modest
inhibition is expected to hold firm. This will keep mention of
PoPs out of the forecast for the overnight period. Expect
overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the
mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 923 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The Keys are situated in a region of slack pressure gradient with
a weak Atlantic pressure ridge to our south across Cuba. As day
time heating effects wind down, surface winds will initially
become variable, but eventually return to a more synoptically
consistent light south to southwesterly breeze late tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 923 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight.
Surface winds will become light and variable over the next hour or
two, then gradually firm up out of the south late in the night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....DP

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest