Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
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Issued by NWS Key West, FL
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --010 FXUS62 KKEY 221519 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1119 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 1115 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 The 12z sounding at KEY sampled an eroding moisture profile above the 750 mb isobaric surface. However, decent moisture remains below. Light and variable winds earlier today have gradually clocked around to the east and modestly freshened. This is owed to a surface high gradually moving offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states, and a weak surface low progressing away from the eastern Bahamas. Skies are mostly sunny across the Florida Keys, with temperatures already in the mid to upper 80s. For this afternoon, there is little reason to believe that a broken cumulus cloud line will form along portions of the island chain as it did yesterday, as we continue to approach the convective temperature based on this morning`s sounding. Due to the aforementioned dry air aloft, thunderstorms will likely be a bit harder to materialize, with spotty showers more likely. There is quite a bit of convective allowing model (CAM) guidance to suggest diurnally- driven afternoon convection over South Florida may try to steer southward into the Bayside waters and eventually Middle and Upper Keys this evening. This will be monitored. Given all of these factors, measurable rain chances near 20% still seems appropriate for the first period. No changes proposed.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 1115 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a weak area of low pressure in the vicinity of the Bahamas will continue to decay as it slides northeastward in the North Atlantic. As an expansive ridge of high pressure will build in its wake, light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue through Saturday, clocking around to the southeast to south on Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Light east to southeast steering will not be favorable for island cloud lines despite the generally favorable thermodynamic profile sampled by the 12Z KKEY RAOB. Extreme South Florida will generate some thunderstorms this afternoon, but these storms will propagate west into the southeastern Gulf. Thus, both TAFs advertise VFR through the next 24 hours.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CLIMATE...-- Changed Discussion --On this date in 1997, an F1 tornado produced $150k in damage around mile marker 58.5 on Grassy Key.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 81 90 81 / 20 20 10 20 Marathon 89 81 90 81 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest