-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
901
FXUS62 KKEY 231845
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
245 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

It has remain quiet this afternoon with hardly any showers popping
up on KBYX. That is not to say that there any any boundaries out
there. There are multiple boundaries that can be seen on radar but
dry air plus low level subsidence from a ridge parked over the
Florida Peninsula is squashing any chances for showers to develop.
Meanwhile, despite a light northeast wind, temperatures have had
no issues rising to near 90 degrees with dew points in the low to
mid 70s.

.FORECAST...
It looks like the Florida Keys are heading back to a period of dry
weather with lots of sunshine and potentially dew points creeping
back up. The combination of which may lead to some heat-related
illnesses, especially for the upcoming holiday weekend. In
addition, a weak wind regime is on tap, so not much of a relief
should be expected.

For tonight, our slight rain chances are largely being driven by
the potential for any boundaries that may come off the mainland
overnight. Even then though, the moisture will be limited and
instability will be limited. In addition, with no convection
recently firing across South Florida, chances are not looking good
for showers.

Low level ridge will remain in place such that our
winds will likely be light and variable at times through the first
half of the holiday weekend. By Sunday the ridge will attempt to
shift east, which will allows winds to clock back around to the
southeast and freshen briefly going into Memorial Day. Thereafter,
the ridge will retrograde back westward over the Florida
Peninsula and gradually become flattened while losing definition.
This will once again result in winds becoming light and at times
variable. Despite a low level steering from the east and southeast
at times, moisture will be hard to come by. As such, only slight
rain chances (10-20 percent) were kept beyond the holiday weekend.
We will have to see if this holds as the trend has been to remain
dry. Lastly, daytime temperatures are progged to reach into the
lower 90s next week and if we cannot get enough moisture to give
to produce some showers, then we could be looking at potential
conditions for heat advisories.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

High pressure will remain the dominant pattern,
allowing for an extended period of light to gentle east to
southeast breezes through the end of the week. During the later
half of Sunday, breezes will clock to a southeasterly to south
direction and modestly freshen as the high pressure shifts its
position. Thereafter the high pressure will weaken with the axis
settling across the Florida Keys, leading to another round of
potentially light and variable breezes.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both island
terminals. Near surface winds will be east to southeast at 5 to 10
knots.
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&&

.CLIMATE...

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In 1903, the Key West WFO moved from the Waite building to the
Weather Bureau building at Front and Eaton streets (which is now
located within the Truman Annex).
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Key West  80  91  81  91 /  10  10   0  10
Marathon  80  90  81  90 /  10  10  10  10
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&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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