-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
407
FXUS64 KLIX 192040
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
340 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Generally a quite pattern has evolved for our local CWFA. Aloft, a
dry northwesterly flow around the eastern periphery of a 594dam
high over Mexico will remain across our region through the short
term period. At the surface a high pressure will continue to rule
the overall surface pattern with light and variable winds. Skies
should remain on the clear side. This could again generate some
shallow radiation fog tonight with calm winds and clear skies.
SREF guidance is pinging the best potential along the Atchafalaya
late tonight or around sunrise on Monday. Kept patchy fog in the
grids for now. This should lift pretty rapidly after sunrise. The
main story here will be temperatures. As high pressure begins to
move east a weak onshore flow will initiate allowing temperatures
to be slightly cooler right along the immediate coast...at least
cooler than today with a weak northerly flow over our region
limiting impacts from the cooler shelf waters. (Frye)
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Tuesday the southerly return flow will be more noticeable. Again,
this should moderate temperatures right along the immediate coast
with the interaction of the cooler SSTs. However, inland will be a
few degrees warmer with most locations ending up in the upper 80s
or even perhaps lower 90s. Aloft, the upper ridge mentioned in the
short term portion will spread northeast toward the Rio Grande
Valley. There will be upper level ridging along the Texas coast
and spreading into our region, however, the heights are just a bit
lower than previously advertised so temps were knocked down a
degree or two from previous higher forecasts. That said, it will
still be a warm week ahead with temperatures warming into the
middle and upper 80s each day with perhaps the warmer locations
such as Baton Rouge reaching the 90F mark each afternoon.

By Thursday a weak frontal boundary tries to move southward but
stalls to our north across the midsouth region. There will be an
upper level impulse overhead and with a more rich boundary layer
from a few days of return flow. Think the rain chances will be
nonzero, especially across interior southwest MS closer to the
front and best upper level dynamics. But largely most of the
region appears to be dry with the best QPF signal along and north
of the I20 corridor. Going into late week and into the weekend a
warming trend is progged by the guidance as upper level heights
again try to increase with the upper high strengthening to around
595dam over Deep South Texas. If this does, indeed, occur many
across our forecast area will see their warmest temperatures of
the season late this week and especially into the next weekend.
(Frye)
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Mostly VFR conditions through this cycle. Perhaps MVFR VIS
overnight for the fog favored terminals such as MCB and HUM.
Otherwise, light and variable winds expected. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

High pressure will continue to build into the region early this
week. This will lead to favorable marine conditions through the
forecast period. High pressure will begin to exit the region
allowing for southerly winds to take shape, but winds should
remain at and mostly below 15kts through the week. (Frye)
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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MCB  65  90  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  69  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  73  89  72  89 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  69  87  70  87 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  67  90  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF