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586
FXUS64 KLIX 191527 AAB
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1027 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A warm day is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast today.
Temperatures will be the main story with a weak northerly flow
across the region. This will allow the typically "cooler" coastal
locations to warm just a bit more with little influence from the
adjacent shelf waters, which SSTs are roughly in the middle and
upper 70s. Looking at the ongoing forecast no changes for this
midpoint update. Just beyond the near term, went ahead and added
some patchy fog for early Monday morning again given that strong
radiative processes and moist soils may contribute to the
development of some shallow fog around or just prior to sunrise.
(Frye)
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

After a good soaking along with some severe wx, we are ready for a
break. A back door trough will be moving through today, this can
actually be seen in radar returns this morning just to the NE of the
area. We are calling this a trough since there is only weak air mass
change, and the only change is found in PW values as they drop from
around 1.4" this morning to around 1" by this afternoon. This won`t
stay around too long and we will be back to return flow Monday.
The only thing of concern will be fog this morning as the boundary
moving in and conditions ahead of this boundary are ripe for
radiation fog. There is only one variable that is not wanting to
play along and that is a northerly wind that is supposed to be all
the way to the coast by daylight today. The wind is not strong,
but since it is bring a degree or two drop in dew pts, there is
concern that fog will not form until right at sunrise(sunrise
surprise). This is by far the hardest fog to fcast, but if this
looks to be the case just before sunrise, we will bring up a dense
fog advisory for inland areas south of the boundary. Since this
boundary will be at the coast tonight, fog should not be an issue
tonight(famous last words).
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Warm and humid will be back for the next several days but then again
it is the start of summer, so these conditions are not unusual. The
only thing concerning concerning weather will be by the end of the
week. But these MCS features look to stay to the north of the area
by late Thu into Fri. It is possible that some of this could make
its way to central LA/MS. But as far as it getting here, this does
not look to be the case at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Some inland terminals could see very short duration IFR due to vis
this morning around sunrise, but the remainder of this cycle should
be VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Storms will slowly move south and east and dissipate today from the
outer waters. Easterly and westerly winds across the frontal
boundary will also become southerly to start the new work week.
Southerly winds will remain the common theme for the rest of the
week and no other systems are expected to impact the coastal waters
through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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MCB  87  65  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  92  70  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  89  73  89  73 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  90  69  87  71 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  91  67  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RDF
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE