-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
571
FXUS63 KLMK 261743
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
143 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Multiple waves of strong to severe storms possible today and
    tonight. Widespread damaging winds are possible, and tornadoes
    and large hail cannot be ruled out.

*   Repeated heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding,
    especially over south-central Kentucky.

*   The greatest risk for severe weather and flooding will be after
    dark. Have multiple ways to receive warnings, and be aware of
    the dangers of nighttime flooding.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Seeing a bowing segment across our SW CWA at the moment. This
feature has a history of wind damage across western KY, however have
seemed to note lower measured wind speeds as it has crossed into our
CWA. Taking a look at soundings, we are seeing a bit of a near-
surface stable layer on both OHX soundings, and recent AMDAR
soundings out of SDF. For the moment, this appears to be keeping the
worst of the winds from getting down to the surface. That being
said, still seeing some fairly nasty signatures on radar, so don`t
want to be too conservative just yet. MCV looks to cross somewhere
along the I-64 corridor through early afternoon, so still think a
severe threat will exist anywhere along and south of that boundary.
Current Tornado Watch looks well placed at the moment.

Previous Update...
Currently focusing on an intense bowing segment
that is coming out of the Missouri Bootheel, and headed toward our
SW CWA, likely arriving between 1030 and 11 AM EDT. Hi-res models do
show this feature weakening somewhat before it arrives, and given
that there is a good amount of stratiform, and overall more stable,
activity ahead of it, it would make sense to see some weakening.
That being said, it very well may be above severe limits when it
arrives, especially if a good cold pool is established. Will be
monitoring this feature as it approaches by late morning.

Noting that a clear MCV has developed with this activity, which will
at a minimum enough to keep convection firing as this lead wave
moves through our area late morning into the first part of the
afternoon. The degree of destabilization is in question given how
much convective debris is already overspreading the area.
Nevertheless, there should be some instability to work with.
Overall, mostly concerned about the SW CWA for this lead wave, and
then a second wave that could come bowing in right behind it by
early afternoon. These will likely carry a wind damage threat, as
well as an isolated tornado threat with any mesovortice.

Also, concerned about these two early waves of moderate to heavy
rain hitting southern KY where FFG values remain low (although
better recovered from yesterday`s values). WPC moderate risk for
excessive rainfall looks well placed, and will continue to monitor
for rainfall exceeding 1.25 to 1.5" per hour down there. Each wave
will make the area more susceptible as the day/night go on.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH Today/...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Multiple opportunities for severe weather over the next 24 hrs, with
the impacts of each impulse dependent on the one before it. Because
of that interdependence, confidence in the severe threat is limited.
However, with multiple waves of storms to bring copious rainfall,
confidence is increasing in a flash flood threat, especially over
south-central Kentucky.

The general idea remains the same with at least two, perhaps three
waves of storms. First wave will be a warm advection wing, currently
reflected by convection over the Ozarks, and will be pushing
eastward across Kentucky during the morning hours. Look for that to
arrive in south central Kentucky by mid-morning, but likely in a
weakened state.  Could see some rejuvenation as it makes its way
into an increasingly unstable environment toward midday, which would
support a damaging wind threat. Tornado threat will remain low  in
the early part of the day as the shear isn`t that strong yet.

Perhaps the biggest question mark in the process is a MCV, which we
expect to develop from the activity currently over NE Kansas, and
how closely it will follow the initial wave of storms. This impulse
could provide another opportunity for strong convection in the
afternoon, if it isn`t moving into an already overturned atmosphere.

The third impulse is the one that prompts the most confidence, and
is expected to initiate convection shortly before sunset over
southern Illinois. By this time low-level and deep-layer shear will
be much more favorable, and the environment will be moderately
unstable after a few hours of late afternoon heating. Expect this
convection to grow upscale into a large squall line caprable of
producing widespread damaging winds as it pushes ESE across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky. A few segments could become oriented
perpendicular to the shear vector, leading to mesovortex development
and at least some tornado risk, but it will be limited by higher
than ideal LCLs. Potential limiting factor in the wind threat is the
timing, especially as the line pushes south and east after dark,
with increasing chances for a low-level inversion to keep momentum
from mixing down. All severe threats are still on the table.

Flash flooding is an additional threat, and confidence is increasing
that we will see at least a few locations that pick up excessive
rainfall with a potential three separate waves of convection. Threat
is the greatest across south central Kentucky, where recent heavy
rains have lowered Flash Flood Guidance, and the late-night squall
line will be most prone to hang up, potentially resulting in
training storms. That area is now highlighted by WPC in a Moderate
Risk for excessive rainfall, with the rest of Kentucky and southern
Indiana in a Slight Risk. Didn`t want to slice things too fine, so
we have hoisted a Flood Watch for the entire CWA, from 12Z today
through 12Z Monday. The greatest threat will be with the final round
of storms tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Monday through Tuesday Night...

Deep low pressure is forecast to reach Lower MI by 12Z Monday, with
a trailing cold front advancing through central IN and western KY. A
trailing upper level shortwave trough will swing across the Ohio
Valley Monday morning as the cold front moves through the region.
This could touch off a few weak showers and storms early in the day,
though most will see a dry start to the day in the wake of severe
storms late Sunday.

There is a slightly greater chance (30%) for showers and storms in
the Bluegrass/Lake Cumberland regions in the afternoon. Slightly
richer moisture and a bit more time for the airmass to destabilize
prior to fropa results in the slightly higher rain chances. However,
precip will be sparse overall. Expect a mostly cloudy start to the
day, with lower clouds thinning during the second half of the day.
It will be breezy with gusts of 20-30 mph. Highs will range from the
mid 70s to around 80 F.

Notable upper level troughing lingers over the Great Lakes and Upper
Midwest through Tuesday night, keeping deeper moisture bottled up to
our north. An amplifying upper level ridge builds from the Rockies
to the Plains as sfc high pressure strengthens over the northern and
central Plains. Largely dry weather is expected with lows in the 50s
and afternoon highs in the mid 70s to near 80 F.

Wednesday through Saturday...

Ridging builds east across the MS and OH Valleys through late week,
resulting in a stretch of pleasant weather. Highs will be in the 70s
Wednesday and Thursday with comfortable humidity levels. Morning
lows will generally be in the 50s, though some spots will see
readings in the 40s Thursday and Friday mornings. Temperatures will
warm back to around 80 degrees Friday afternoon.

A highly meridional flow pattern will be in place heading into next
weekend. Ridging slowly drifts to the east as a Plains low pressure
system moves toward the region. Rain returns to the forecast for
late Saturday or Sunday, though timing remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

The first round of showers and storms is pushing east of the LEX/RGA
TAF sites at this hour, however will still see a couple/few hours of
-SHRA and perhaps some lightning strikes for another hour or two.

BWG is going to get another round of storms that should end by 3 or
4 PM CDT.

From there, expect a quiet period through late afternoon and early
evening. Re-initiation of showers and storms expected over southern
Indiana around 00z. This complex will work SE through the TAF sites
between 8 PM and 3 AM. Strong gusty winds, and brief vis below 1 SM
possible with any storm.

The pre-dawn hours return to quiet, with low MVFR ceilings building
in toward dawn.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...BJS
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BJS