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223
FXUS64 KLZK 212013
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
313 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

An upper ridge is over the southeast part of the U.S. with an upper
low over the northern Plains. The upper low will move east as the
ridge in the south remains stationary. Several low pressure systems
will move across the northern U.S. through Thursday. The upper
ridge will be pushed south late Thursday.

Strong south winds continue across the area this afternoon ahead of
a cold front in Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms have developed
in eastern Oklahoma and will move into western Arkansas this
afternoon and evening. Some of the storms could be severe tonight
with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. The northwest
half of the state is under a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms.

Several short waves will move through the state through Thursday
bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Several
inches of rain are expected through this week and a Flood Watch may
be needed with the next forecast package depending on how the
storms act tonight.

Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s to the mid 70s and in the 60s
Wednesday night. Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to upper 80s
and in the upper 70s to upper 80s Thursday.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Unsettled weather is likely to continue through the long term
portion of the forecast. Persistent H500 SW flow will remain in
place through the end of the period as ridging extends from northern
Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico while a series of cyclones rotate
east generally along the US/CA border.

Helping to focus the activity will be a nearly stationary front
oriented generally from SW to NE across Arkansas and surrounding
areas. A parade of mid-level disturbances will traverse the flow
aloft and aid in the development of rain and thunderstorms locally,
practically on a daily basis. Depending on available instability,
shear and timing of the H500 wave passage, a few rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible. A more robust H500 wave is
expected to move across the area from Thu PM to Fri AM which could
provide an opportunity for more organized TS development.

With several rounds of rain and thunderstorms expected across at
least the northern half of the state there is increased concern for
heavy rainfall potential. There is some indication that by the end
of the period the stalled front will finally sink south of the area
and the flow aloft will become more progressive. This could bring at
least somewhat of a break in persistent rain chances as well as
slightly cooler temperatures. Until that happens, above normal
temperatures remain likely through much of the period.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

High pressure is over the southeast U.S. this afternoon with a
cold front located in central Oklahoma. Strong south winds are
ahead of the cold front gusting to 20 to 25 kts. Expect showers
and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the cold front. This will be
the beginning of a wet period over the next few days as the front
stalls in northwest Arkansas. Thunderstorms will continue into the
morning hours before dissipating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Batesville AR     69  82  65  82 /  60  80  80  60
Camden AR         73  87  67  87 /  40  60  50  30
Harrison AR       63  74  62  79 /  60  80  70  50
Hot Springs AR    70  84  66  84 /  50  70  80  50
Little Rock   AR  73  87  69  85 /  50  80  80  50
Monticello AR     73  88  69  87 /  40  50  50  30
Mount Ida AR      69  84  65  83 /  50  80  80  60
Mountain Home AR  65  77  63  79 /  60  80  70  50
Newport AR        70  84  67  82 /  60  80  80  60
Pine Bluff AR     73  87  68  86 /  40  60  70  40
Russellville AR   69  84  65  82 /  60  80  80  60
Searcy AR         70  84  65  82 /  50  80  80  60
Stuttgart AR      73  85  69  84 /  40  70  70  50
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&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...51