Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 210126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210125
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-210300-
Mesoscale Discussion 0859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Areas affected...parts of southwestern Nebraska and adjacent
northern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 210125Z - 210300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...An intensifying supercell and perhaps small upscale
growing convective cluster appears likely to continue developing
eastward along a frontal zone into portions of southwestern Nebraska
and adjacent northern Kansas through 10 PM-Midnight CDT. This will
be accompanied by increasing potential for large hail, severe wind
gusts and a few tornadoes. A new watch likely will be issued within
the next hour or so.
DISCUSSION...More substantive intensification of convection across
northeastern Colorado is now underway, including one supercell now
propagating eastward across the Akron CO vicinity. As activity
continues eastward, strengthening easterly low-level updraft inflow
will become increasingly unstable with deeper progression into the
plains. This likely will support further upscale growth, including,
at least initially, an enlarging supercell, then perhaps a gradually
upscale growing cluster focused along the baroclinic zone (roughly
centered around 700 mb) extending eastward near/north of the
Kansas/Nebraska border vicinity.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/21/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40930201 41000060 40679972 39699985 39580095 39680163
40140214 40930201