096
ACUS11 KWNS 250003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250003
MOZ000-250200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0942
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Areas affected...Southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304...

Valid 250003Z - 250200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat across southwest Missouri may be
maximized over the next couple of hours. The primary threats remain
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Despite numerous early attempts at convective
initiation, only a few robust convective cells have been sustained
over the past hour or so across southwest MO. This may be attributed
to a gradually slowing frontal motion (and thus weakening forcing
for ascent) across the region as stronger synoptic lift glances the
region to the north. Regardless, MRMS and GOES IR imagery show a
couple of robust supercells have become established and may persist
for the next 1-2 hours as they migrate across an MLCAPE buoyancy
axis. The KSGF VWP has recently sampled realtively weak (20 knots or
less) winds in the 0-2 km layer with stronger (~40 knot) winds
between 5-6 km. Consequently, regional hodographs appear to be
sufficiently elongated to continue to support supercells, and should
remain so through mid/late evening. Large hail (possibly up to 2
inches in diameter) and damaging winds remain the most probable
hazards given the poor low-level hodograph structure. It remains
unclear how long cells will persist into south-central MO later this
evening, and additional storms appear possible based on recent
visible imagery trends along the front (though perhaps not probable
given the approaching onset of nocturnal cooling). Regardless, the
severe threat should be focused to two to three cells heading into
the late evening.

..Moore.. 05/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...

LAT...LON   36669301 36629362 36669400 36779417 37009430 37109421
            37409379 37829330 38059279 38119244 38059218 37809196
            37419194 37039217 36809254 36669301