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006
FXUS64 KMEG 190801
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
301 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A Dense Fog Advisory remains in affect for portions of West
Tennessee, Northeast Mississippi, and the Missouri Bootheel through
the early morning hours resulting in to potential dangerous
driving conditions. High pressure will settle across the Mid-South
later this morning leading to benign weather with increasing
temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s to begin our
workweek. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
again early Wednesday and will extend into Memorial Day weekend as
a unsettled weather pattern develops across the region.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Current temperatures at this hour are in the lower 60s to lower 70s
with mostly calm winds at the surface, and clear skies areawide.
Excess moisture from yesterday afternoon`s convection combined with
clear skies and calm winds has lead to a pretty foggy morning. Many
sites along the Tennessee River, extending west are reporting 1/4
SM visibilities leading to a need for a Dense Fog Advisory over
portions of West Tennessee, Northeast Mississippi, and the
Missouri Bootheel. Fog should begin to lift shortly after sunrise
as winds begin to increase across the region.

Surface and upper level ridging continue to build in across the
Mid-South, and will eventually settle later this morning. As a
result, pretty benign weather through will prevail through for the
beginning of the workweek. South winds and the aforementioned
ridge will usher in warm, dry from the southwest leading to a
pretty warm start to the beginning of the week with many areas
across the region seeing near 90 degree temperatures. Come late
Tuesday, an upper level low looks to form over the Upper Great
Lakes region while a surface low looks to form over Missouri with
an attached cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to
form along this cold front early Wednesday morning. The potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms continues to grow for Wednesday
as time draws closer. Long range models are hinting at a 50-70%
chance of 1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE and 30 kts of bulk shear
in areas along and east of the Mississippi River with the
movement of convection Wednesday. Though confidence remains on the
lower end for our area as greater potential for severe weather
remains displaced to our northeast over the Middle Mississippi
Valley.

By Friday morning, the aforementioned cold front looks to move
north as a warm front giving lift to continued showers and
thunderstorms. We are keeping 30-60% chance PoPs in the forecast
through Friday. Another cold front looks to dip down from the
Middle Mississippi Valley Saturday morning leading to continued
shower and thunderstorm chances (25-40%) through Memorial Day
Weekend.

AEH
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and LIFR conditions as
fog develops at all sites overnight. Dense fog is most likely at
TUP and MKL. VSBYs will improve to VFR tomorrow morning with
light northeast winds and clear skies through the end of the
period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AR...None.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MSZ002>006-
     009-013>017-023-024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-050>055-089>092.
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&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH